MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Continues Bounce From Above 3 Month Bull Channel Base 

*RES 4: $1.2475 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2460 Congestion area Jan 31-Feb 2

*RES 2: $1.2406/09 Feb 2 low, Feb 7 high

*RES 1: $1.2392 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2360 @0935GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2330/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2298 Initial high Feb 12, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2248 3 month bull channel base projection

*SUP 4: $1.2227 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Has found support over the last few days from above the 3 month

bull channel base projection, at $1.2248 by time today. This now the protection

to a renewed downside push, the Feb 9 low at $1.2206 then ahead of the 38.2%

Fibo retrace level at $1.2162. Meanwhile, the subsequent bounce has broken above

$1.2370-75 today, although the failure to test $1.2406-$1.2409 is an initial

concern. Main resistance $1.2460-$1.2475. Nearest support now $1.2330-$1.2298.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Continues To Falter Below $1.3925 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.4091 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.4056/67 50% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3765, Feb 8 high

*RES 2: $1.3980/88 Jan 30 low, Feb 9 high

*RES 1: $1.3921/25 Intraday, Feb 13 highs

*PRICE: $1.3861 @0944GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3834/45 Feb 13 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3796 Feb 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.3765 Feb 9 low

*SUP 4: $1.3693 1.618 swing $1.3836-$1.4067

*COMMENTARY* The correction of the recent $1.3458-$1.4346 gains, saw a low of

$1.3765 on Friday, just below the 61.8% retrace at $1.3797. In the interim, the

subsequent recovery has surpassed initial $1.3880-$1.3902 resistance but any

further progress is now likely beholden to a $1.3925-$1.3988 break. Support

comes from $1.3845 and then Tuesday's $1.3834 low. Loss of $1.3796 however,

would caution again, the swing target at $1.3693 the next target below $1.3765.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Moves Into Next Y106.92-Y106.51 Target Zone

*RES 4: Y108.46 Feb 6 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y108.05 Feb 9 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y107.90 Intraday high

*RES 1: Y107.65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y107.47 @1000GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.00/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y106.84/92 Intraday low, 1.618 swing Y108.28-Y110.48

*SUP 3: Y106.68 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y106.51 61.8% Fibo of Y99.00-Y118.67

*COMMENTARY* Has broken below last year's Y107.32 base, the swing target at

Y106.92 slightly exceeded on near term exuberance, before recovering, aided by

some oversold conditions. This rise from Y106.84 will likely meet initial

resistance from between Y107.65-Y108.05 but will need to move back through

Y108.46-Y108.82 to reduce the current bear bias. Below Y106.84 and the 2%

volatility band protects the long term 61.8% Fibo level at Y106.51.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Key Near Term Support Now Located Between Y131.99-Y131.75

*RES 4: Y134.17 Feb 9 high

*RES 3: Y133.80 Feb 12 high

*RES 2: Y133.45/50 Hourly congestion area Feb 12

*RES 1: Y133.10/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.66 @1005GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.35/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.75/99 2% volatility band, Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: Y131.17 Nov 17 low

*SUP 4: Y130.87 1.618 swing of Y131.99-Y133.80

*COMMENTARY* Some downside exuberance saw the lower 2% volatility band slightly

exceeded last Friday, but this was quickly rectified by the subsequent

Y131.99-Y133.80 bounce. As a result, earlier support now exists from between

Y132.40-Y132.35, ahead of Y131.99 again and then the band, which by time today,

has fallen to Y131.75. This remains the protection to the Nov 17 low at Y131.17.

Meanwhile, Y133.15 and then Y133.50 provide resistance to a Y133.80 return.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Overbought Near Term On Approach To Recent Range High

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8951 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8867

*RES 2: Stg0.8936 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8926 Jan 12 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8906 @1015GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8870/80 Feb 12 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8858 Feb 13 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8843 Feb 12 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8820 Initial rally high Feb 8, now support

*COMMENTARY* Continues to rise, albeit slowly ,most recently through the

previously difficult Stg0.8900-Stg0.8909 area. Now has to contend with the

previous range high and upper 1% volatility band between Stg0.8926-Stg0.8936.

Also overbought in the near term. Support comes from Stg0.8880-Stg0.8870 loss

would caution but eyes are probably on the lower Stg0.8858-Stg0.8843 area. Above

Stg0.8936 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at Stg0.8951 next.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Has To Maintain Pivotal $0.7875 Break If Recovery To Continue

*RES 4: $0.7987 Feb 1 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7954 Feb 5 high

*RES 2: $0.7911 Feb 6 high

*RES 1: $0.7890 Intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7867 @1025GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7828 Feb 13 low

*SUP 2: $0.7790/95 Hourly support, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7759 Feb 9 low

*SUP 4: $0.7744 61.8% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*COMMENTARY* The decline gathered pace and exuberance over the course of last

week. A low of $0.7759 seen on Friday, slightly below the important lower 2%

volatility band but the break was only brief, given the higher $$0.7820 close.

Has become extremely oversold in the near term but relies on a maintained move

back above the pivotal hourly resistance at $0.7875, before any confidence in a

correction of losses from the Year's $0.8136 high will appear.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Last Friday's Lower Close Sees 'Doji' Candle Close

*RES 4: $1.2762 76.4% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249

*RES 3: $1.2689 Feb 9 high

*RES 2: $1.2664 61.8% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249

*RES 1: $1.2623/30 Feb 12 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2578 @1028GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2535/47 Hourly support, Feb 8 low

*SUP 2: $1.2491 Feb 6 low, Jan 23 high

*SUP 3: $1.2430 Hourly base Feb 5

*SUP 4: $1.2392/98 Jan 25 high, Feb 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery continued last week resulting in a spike high to

$1.2689 on Friday, before the lower close provided the daily chart with a

potentially bearish 'Doji' candle. Nearest resistance now seen from between

$1.2623-$1.2664 and while below the latter, the near term risk will be for some

further correction of the gains seen since the Jan 31 low at $1.2249. In this

respect. $1.2535-$1.2491 provides initial protection.

GOLD TECHS: $1337.7 The Next Step On Road To Recovery

*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1352.5 Jan 29 high

*RES 2: $1346.2 Feb 6 high

*RES 1: $1337.7 Jan 29 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1331.1 @1037GMT

*SUP 1: $1322.8 Feb 8 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1314.2 Hourly base Feb 9

*SUP 3: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Has held around support from the Jan 10 low at $1308.3, a low of

$1307.1 seen before recovering some ground. Currently correcting losses from

last month's $1366.2 high, with $1337.7 the next barrier to surmount, before the

chance of a higher $1346.2-$1352.5 rise. The latter then becomes pivotal to

direction.  Meanwhile, $1322.8 and then $1314.2 provide support. Back below the

latter would suggest the recovery was over for the time being.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]