MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovers After Enduring 76.4% Retrace Setback

*RES 4: $1.2606 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2598 61.8% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 2: $1.2538 Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1.2523 Feb 1 high

*PRICE: $1.2487 @0850GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2440/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2392 Initial rally high Feb 14

*SUP 3: $1.2371 Feb 13 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2330 Hourly base Feb 14

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to thrive, after finding support from the 3 month

bull channel base, at $1.2261 today. Meanwhile, the subsequent bounce has now

wiped the slate clean of resistance ahead of the year's $1.2523-$1.2538 highs.

Any higher and look initially to $1.2598-$1.2606, although the 10 year falling

resistance line at $1.2679 and swing target of the $1.2538-$1.2206 fall at

$1.2743, become future potential. Support $1.2440-$1.2392.

CABLE TECHS: Rallies Well After Key $1.3796 Support Holds

*RES 4: $1.4151/58 Feb 5 high, 76.4% of $1.4279-$1.3765

*RES 3: $1.4124 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3765

*RES 2: $1.4084 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.4056/67 50% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3765, Feb 8 high

*PRICE: $1.4042 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3980/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3941 Hourly base Feb 14

*SUP 3: $1.3921/25 Initial high Feb 14, Feb 13 high

*SUP 4: $1.3875 Congestion area Feb 12-Feb 14

*COMMENTARY* Key near term support at $1.3796 held a steep pullback on

Wednesday, before launching into an immediate recovery. This now sees resistance

from the $1.4056-$1.4067 area as the next barrier to surmount, ahead of the

upper 1% volatility band at $1.4084. In the interim, support rises to

$1.3990-$1.3980, loss would suggest some near term correction is required,

$1.3941-$1.3921 below. Through $1.4084 and scope to see $1.4124-$1.4158 next.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Lower 2% Volatility Band Under Pressure

*RES 4: Y107.90/05 Feb 14 high, Feb 9 low

*RES 3: Y107.55 Feb 14 high

*RES 2: Y107.23 Hourly high Feb 14

*RES 1: Y106.84 Initial low Feb 14. now resistance

*PRICE: Y106.30 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.18/29 Intraday low, 2% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y105.44/55 Jan 2014 high, Oct 3 2016 high

*SUP 3: Y104.35 14 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: Y103.64 76.4% Fibo of Y99.00-Y118.67

*COMMENTARY* Has squeezed lower again today, the 2% volatility band at Y106.29

is under pressure, a low of Y106.18 at the time of writing. As always cautious

when this is exceeded, as is never a long lasting situation. At the moment,

there is not much showing below Y106.18, until the Y105.55-Y105.44 area. In the

meantime, resistance comes from Y106.84 but likely requires a move back above

Y107.23 before any belief in a near term correction will arise.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Continued Failure Below Y133.39 Would Concern

*RES 4: Y134.56 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y131.61

*RES 3: Y134.13 Jan 30 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y133.80/86 Feb 12 high, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y131.61

*RES 1: Y133.39 Feb 14 high

*PRICE: Y132.87 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.99 Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: Y131.61 Feb 14 low

*SUP 4: Y131.37 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The lower 2% volatility band came under renewed pressure yesterday.

A low of Y131.61, before the weight of some heavily oversold hourly conditions

came to the near term rescue. The subsequent lift, now has Wednesday's Y133.39

high in the way of an even better recovery. Meanwhile, nearest support of note

now seen from Y132.50, loss would caution and suggest a fresh bout of weakness

underway, Y131.99 then the protection against a Y131.61-Y131.37 fall.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Overbought Near Term On Approach To Recent Range High

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8951 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8867

*RES 2: Stg0.8947 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8926 Jan 12 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8877 @0955GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8870/75 Feb 12 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8858 Feb 13 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8843 Feb 12 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8820 Initial rally high Feb 8, now support

*COMMENTARY* Continued it's rise, albeit slowly this week, most recently through

the previously difficult Stg0.8900-Stg0.8909 area. Now has to contend with the

previous range high and then the upper 1% volatility band between

Stg0.8926-Stg0.8947. Also overbought in the near term, Stg0.8870 support. Loss

would caution but eyes are probably on the lower Stg0.8858-Stg0.8843 area, as

below will begin a correction of gains from the month's lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Correction Aims To Test $0.7987-$0.7992 Next

*RES 4: $0.8041/47 Feb 2 high, 76.4% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759

*RES 3: $0.8028 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $0.7987/92 Feb 1 low, 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759

*RES 1: $0.7967 Intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7951 @1005GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7905 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7890 Initial recovery highs Feb 14, now support

*SUP 3: $0.7828/38 Hourly congestion Feb 12-13

*SUP 4: $0.7809 Feb 12 low

*COMMENTARY* Had to endure a deep $0.7773 setback on Wednesday, before once

again finding the ability to rally, from above stronger $0.7759-Stg0.7744

support. Have subsequently seen a move back above $0.7890-$0.7911 resistance,

this improves chances of a higher correction of recent losses from $0.8136,

beginning with $0.7987-$0.7992. Meantime, $0.7905-$0.7890 supports against any

fresh downside interest.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Last Friday's 'Doji' Candle Close Comes Home To Roost

*RES 4: $1.2623/25 Feb 12, Feb 13 highs

*RES 3: $1.2600/05 Congestion area Feb 12-Feb 14

*RES 2: $1.2556 Feb 12 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2520 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2480 @1015GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2465/69 Intraday low, 50% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.2689

*SUP 2: $1.2410/17 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.2689

*SUP 3: $1.2392/98 Jan 25 high, Feb 5 low

*SUP 4: $1.2353 76.4% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.2689

*COMMENTARY* The recovery continued last week resulting in a spike high to

$1.2689 on Friday, before the lower close provided the daily chart with a

potentially bearish 'Doji' candle. The failure since to reclaim levels above

1.2664 has added fuel to the fire, the subsequent loss of $1.2556 opening the

way for some deeper correction of gains seen since the Jan 31 low at $1.2249.

Meanwhile, $1.2520 and that $1.2556 area now provide resistance.

GOLD TECHS: Sustained $1352.5 Break Becomes Pivotal To Direction

*RES 4: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 3: $1375.4 Jul 4 high

*RES 2: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1357.3 Jan 26 high

*PRICE: $1354.5 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: $1337.1 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1333.1 Feb 13 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1322.8 Feb 8 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1318.1 Feb 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Held around support from the Jan 10 low at $1308.3, a low of

$1307.1 seen before recovering some ground. Currently correcting losses from

last month's $1366.2 high, the move above $1337.7 now seeing the chance for a

higher $1352.5 challenge. A move through here is pivotal to direction and a

sustained break above would allow a fresh $1366.2-$1380.3 challenge, perhaps

$1402.7-$1407.7  Meanwhile, $1337.1-$1333.1 now provide support. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]