MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: New Highs As Rally Reaches Toward Fibo Retrace At

$1.2598

*RES 4: $1.2743 1.618 swing of $1.2538-$1.2206

*RES 3: $1.2679 10 year falling res line (monthly chart)

*RES 2: $1.2617 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2598 61.8% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*PRICE: $1.2531 @0925GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2480/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2448 Feb 15 low

*SUP 3: $1.2392 Initial rally high Feb 14, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2371 Feb 13 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to thrive, after finding support from the 3 month

bull channel base, at $1.2274 today. Meanwhile, the s ubsequent bounce has now

wiped the slate clean of resistance ahead of the year's $1.2523-$1.2538 highs.

Above and look initially to $1.2598-$1.2617, although the 10 year falling

resistance line at $1.2679 and swing target of the $1.2538-$1.2206 fall at

$1.2743, become future potential. Support $1.2495-$1.2448.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Faces $1.4151-$1.4167 Resistance Next

*RES 4: $1.4231 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.4209 76.4% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3765

*RES 2: $1.4167 4 week falling resistance line

*RES 1: $1.4151/58 Feb 5 high, 76.4% of $1.4279-$1.3765

*PRICE: $1.4113 @0945GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4070/80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4050 Hourly congestion area Feb 15

*SUP 3: $1.4013/23 Hourly low/highs Feb 15

*SUP 4: $1.3921/25 Feb 13 high, hourly high Feb 14

*COMMENTARY* Continues to recover, albeit slower than some so far. Now facing

resistance from the Feb 5 high at $1.4151 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1.4158. Probably have to allow for a break of the 4 week falling resistance

line at the slightly higher $1.4167, before the chance of a test to the key

$1.4209-$1.4231 area. In the meantime, some near term overbought conditions see

$1.4080-$1.4050 as support, loss would concern and pressure $1.4023-$1.4013.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Lower 2% Volatility Band Again Under Pressure Today

*RES 4: Y107.65/70 Congestion area Feb 13-14

*RES 3: Y107.17 Hourly highs Feb 14

*RES 2: Y106.86 Feb 15 high

*RES 1: Y106.35/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y106.02 @0957GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.87 2% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y105.44/55 Jan 2014 high, Oct 3 2016 high

*SUP 3: Y104.35 14 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: Y103.64 76.4% Fibo of Y99.00-Y118.67

*COMMENTARY* The recovery stalled at Y106.86 yesterday, a fresh fall through

Y106.18 today, which has again straddled the lower 2% volatility band at

Y105.87, testing into the top of the next band of support from between

Y105.55-Y105.44. Always concerned when we trade below the 2% band as this is

never a long lasting situation. Meanwhile, Y106.35-Y106.55 provides initial

resistance but back above Y106.86 needed for anything meaningful.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.15-Y133.39 Break Needed Before Any Recovery Likely

*RES 4: Y134.13 Jan 30 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y133.80/86 Feb 12 high, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y131.61

*RES 2: Y133.39 Feb 14 high 

*RES 1: Y133.10/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.75 @1005GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.27/30 1% volatility band, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.99 Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: Y131.61 Feb 14 low

*SUP 4: Y131.17 Nov 17 low

*COMMENTARY* The lower 2% volatility band came under pressure on Wednesday. A

low of Y131.61, before the weight of some heavily oversold hourly conditions

came to the near term rescue. The subsequent lift, still has Wednesday's Y133.39

high in the way of an even better recovery. Meanwhile, nearest support of note

now seen from above Y132.27-30, loss would caution and suggest a fresh bout of

weakness underway, Y131.99 then the protection against a Y131.61-Y131.17 fall.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8858-Stg0.8843 Currently Provides Downside Protection

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8951/52 76.4% Stg0.9032-Stg0.8867, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Stg0.8926 Jan 12 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8903/05 Feb 15 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8879 @1012GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8858 Feb 13 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8843 Feb 12 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8820 Initial rally high Feb 8, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8805 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920

*COMMENTARY* Continued it's rise, albeit slowly this week, most recently through

the previously difficult Stg0.8900-Stg0.8909 area. Now has to contend with the

previous range high at Stg0.8926, before the chance of a higher Stg0.8951-52

recovery. Some overbought conditions being rectified, with Stg0.8858-Stg0.8843

as support, below will caution and begin a correction of gains from the month's

lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Correction Aims To Test $0.7987-$0.7992 Next

*RES 4: $0.8068 Feb 1 high

*RES 3: $0.8041/47 Feb 2 high, 76.4% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759

*RES 2: $0.8034 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $0.7987/92 Feb 1 low, 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759

*PRICE: $0.7975 @1021GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7915/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7890/92 Initial high Feb 14, Feb 15 low

*SUP 3: $0.7877 Feb 13 high, now support

*SUP 4: $0.7845 Congestion area Feb 12-Feb 13 

*COMMENTARY* Had to endure a deep $0.7773 setback on Wednesday, before once

again finding the ability to rally, from above stronger $0.7759-Stg0.7744

support. Have subsequently seen a move back above $0.7890-$0.7911 resistance,

this improves chances of a higher correction of recent losses from $0.8136,

beginning with $0.7987-$0.7992. Meantime, $0.7925-0.7890 supports against any

fresh downside interest.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Oversold Near Term, $1.2505-$1.2538 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2600/05 Congestion area Feb 12-Feb 14

*RES 3: $1.2556/66 Feb 12-Feb 13 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2538 Feb 15 high

*RES 1: $1.2505/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2468 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2450 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2410/17 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.2689

*SUP 3: $1.2392/98 Jan 25 high, Feb 5 low

*SUP 4: $1.2353 76.4% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.2689

*COMMENTARY* The recovery continued last week resulting in a spike high to

$1.2689 on Friday, before the lower close provided the daily chart with a

potentially bearish 'Doji' candle. The failure since to reclaim levels above

1.2664 has added fuel to the fire, the subsequent loss of $1.2556 opening the

way for some deeper correction of gains seen since the Jan 31 low at $1.2249,

with $1.2417-$1.2410 the next area of interest. $1.2505-1.2538 now resistance.

GOLD TECHS: $1352.5 Break Another Positive As Rally Continues

*RES 4: $1402.7 1.618 swing of $1366.2-$1307.1

*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 2: $1375.4 Jul 4 high

*RES 1: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*PRICE: $1359.7 @1044GMT

*SUP 1: $1348.5 Feb 15 low

*SUP 2: $1333.1 Feb 13 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1327.8 Feb 12 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1318.1 Feb 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Held around support from the Jan 10 low at $1308.3, a low of

$1307.1 seen before recovering ground. Currently reclaiming losses from last

month's $1366.2 high.  A move through the latter would allow a fresh

$1375.4-$1380.3 rise, perhaps $1402.7-$1407.7. The latter the 14 month bull

channel top projection. Meanwhile, $1348.5-$1333.1 now provides support. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]