MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: New Highs But Retreats Without A Test To Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1.2598 61.8% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 3: $1.2556 Intraday high

*RES 2: $1.2523 Initial intraday base, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2480/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2432 @1705GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2415 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2392 Initial rally high Feb 14, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2371 Feb 13 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2340/45 Hourly basing area Feb 13-14

*COMMENTARY* $1.2556 was enough for this week, unable to go on and test the

61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.2598. As a result, has bowed to some overbought

hourly conditions and begun a pullback and some correction of gains seen since

the $1.2206 from last Friday. In this respect, $1.2415-$1.2392 is the next area

of support and protection against a deeper $1.2371-$1.2340 setback. Meanwhile,

$1.2480-90  and then $1.2535 stands in the way of any recovery.

CABLE TECHS: Pullback Underway As $1.4151-$1.4167 Resistance Proves Tough

*RES 4: $1.4209 76.4% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3765

*RES 3: $1.4167 4 week falling resistance line

*RES 2: $1.4151/58 Feb 5 high, 76.4% of $1.4279-$1.3765

*RES 1: $1.4080/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4048 @1715GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4000/05 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3960/70 Hourly low/high Feb 14

*SUP 3: $1.3921/25 Feb 13 high, hourly high Feb 14

*SUP 4: $1.3876 Feb 12 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Continued to recover, for most of the week, albeit slower than

some. Earlier faced resistance from the Feb 5 high at $1.4151 and the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $1.4158 but could only manage a $1.4145 high, before deciding

on some correction of recent gains. In this respect and aided by some near term

overbought conditions, the $1.4000 area now provides support and protection

against a further $1.3970-$1.3921 fall. Resistance dips to $1.4080-$1.4090.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Lower 2% Volatility Band Again Under Pressure Today

*RES 4: Y107.65/70 Congestion area Feb 13-14

*RES 3: Y107.17 Hourly highs Feb 14

*RES 2: Y106.86 Feb 15 high

*RES 1: Y106.35/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y106.21 @1720GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.87 2% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y105.44/55 Jan 2014 high, Oct 3 2016 high

*SUP 3: Y104.35 14 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: Y103.64 76.4% Fibo of Y99.00-Y118.67

*COMMENTARY* The recovery stalled at Y106.86 yesterday, a fresh fall through

Y106.18 today, which has again straddled the lower 2% volatility band at

Y105.87, testing into the top of the next band of support from between

Y105.55-Y105.44. Always concerned when we trade below the 2% band as this is

never a long lasting situation. Meanwhile, Y106.35-Y106.55 provides initial

resistance but back above Y106.86 needed for anything meaningful.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Returns To The Week's Lows As Y133.11 Caps 

*RES 4: Y134.13 Jan 30 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y133.80/86 Feb 12 high, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y131.61

*RES 2: Y133.39 Feb 14 high 

*RES 1: Y132.90/11 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: Y132.13 @1730GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.90/99 Intraday, Feb 9 lows

*SUP 2: Y131.61 Feb 14 low

*SUP 3: Y131.17 Nov 17 low

*SUP 4: Y130.87 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The lower 2% volatility band came under pressure on Wednesday. A

low of Y131.61, before the weight of some heavily oversold hourly conditions

came to the near term rescue. The subsequent lift, still has Wednesday's Y133.39

high in the way of an even better recovery. Meanwhile, nearest support from

Y132.27 has been lost, this cautions and leaves the Y131.90-Y131.99 as the

protection against a Y131.61-Y131.17 fall.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8848-Stg0.8843 Currently Provides Downside Protection

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8951/52 76.4% Stg0.9032-Stg0.8867, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Stg0.8926 Jan 12 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8890/03 Intraday, Feb 15 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8858 @1735GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8848 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8843 Feb 12 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8820 Initial rally high Feb 8, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8805 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920

*COMMENTARY* Continued it's rise, albeit slowly this week, most recently through

the previously difficult Stg0.8900-Stg0.8909 area. Now has to contend with the

previous range high at Stg0.8926, before the chance of a higher Stg0.8951-52

recovery. Some overbought conditions being rectified, with Stg0.8848-Stg0.8843

as support, below will caution and begin a correction of gains from the month's

lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Correction Falters At $0.7987-$0.7992 Resistance barrier

*RES 4: $0.8068 Feb 1 high

*RES 3: $0.8041/47 Feb 2 high, 76.4% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759

*RES 2: $0.8034 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $0.7987/92 Feb 1 low, 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759

*PRICE: $0.7924 @1737GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7903 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7890/92 Initial high Feb 14, Feb 15 low

*SUP 3: $0.7877 Feb 13 high, now support

*SUP 4: $0.7845 Congestion area Feb 12-Feb 13 

*COMMENTARY* Had to endure a deep $0.7773 setback on Wednesday, before once

again finding the ability to rally, from above stronger $0.7759-Stg0.7744

support. Have subsequently seen a move back above $0.7890-$0.7911 resistance,

this improves chances of a higher correction of recent losses from $0.8136,

beginning with $0.7987-$0.7992. Meantime,  0.7892-0.7890 supports against any

fresh downside interest.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Oversold Near Term, $1.2556-$1.2566 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2650 Feb 14 high

*RES 3: $1.2623/25 Feb 12-Feb 13 highs

*RES 2: $1.2600/05 Congestion area Feb 12-Feb 14

*RES 1: $1.2556/66 Feb 12-Feb 13 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2540 @1755GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2475/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2450 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2410/17 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.2689

*SUP 4: $1.2392/98 Jan 25 high, Feb 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery continued last week resulting in a spike high to

$1.2689 on Friday, before the lower close provided the daily chart with a

potentially bearish 'Doji' candle. The failure since to reclaim levels above

1.2650 has added fuel to the fire, the subsequent loss of $1.2556 opening the

way for some deeper correction of gains seen since the Jan 31 low at $1.2249,

with $1.2417-$1.2410 the next area of interest. $1.2556-1.2566 now resistance.

GOLD TECHS: $1352.5 Break Another Positive As Rally Continues

*RES 4: $1402.7 1.618 swing of $1366.2-$1307.1

*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 2: $1375.4 Jul 4 high

*RES 1: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*PRICE: $1353.7 @1800GMT

*SUP 1: $1348.5 Feb 15 low

*SUP 2: $1333.1 Feb 13 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1327.8 Feb 12 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1318.1 Feb 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Held around support from the Jan 10 low at $1308.3, a low of

$1307.1 seen before recovering ground. Currently reclaiming losses from last

month's $1366.2 high.  A move through the latter would allow a fresh

$1375.4-$1380.3 rise, perhaps $1402.7-$1407.7. The latter the 14 month bull

channel top projection. Meanwhile, $1348.5-$1333.1 now provides support. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]