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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bull Channel Base Under Threat, $1.2289-$1.2276 Below
*RES 4: $1.2511 Feb 15 high
*RES 3: $1.2470/75 Hourly congestion Feb 14-15
*RES 2: $1.2435 Feb 19 high
*RES 1: $1.2385/94 Hourly resistance, Feb 16 low
*PRICE: $1.2305 @1625GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2300/14 Intraday low, 3 month bull channel base
*SUP 2: $1.2289 76.4% Fibo of $1.2206-$1.2556
*SUP 3: $1.2276 Feb 14 low
*SUP 4: $1.2237 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Pullback continues as we correct the gains from the $1.2206 low of
Feb 9. The 3 month bull channel base is under challenge today. Clear break below
and look to $1.2289-$1.2276 for next area of support. In the interim, resistance
comes from $1.2385 and then the Feb 16 low at $1.2394. Will need to see gains
back above the latter before the opportunity for any recovery will arise. Lose
$1.2276 and the 1% volatility band is the last protection to $1.2206.
CABLE TECHS: Continued Fall Looks To $1.3920-$1.3902 For Next Guidance
*RES 4: $1.4100 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.4073 Hourly recovery high Feb 16
*RES 2: $1.4025 Feb 20high
*RES 1: $1.3995/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3944 @1630GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3920/25 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3902/10 Equality fall tgt, 61.8% $1.3765-$1.4145
*SUP 3: $1.3876 Feb 12 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.3855 76.4% Fibo of $1.3765-$1.4145
*COMMENTARY* Still falling after losing the confrontation with resistance from
the Feb 5 high at $1.4151 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.4158 last week.
Could only manage a $1.4145 high, before accepting some correction of recent
gains. In this respect and with Monday's loss of $1.4000, now looking at the
prospect of a further $1.3920-$1.3902 fall. Resistance dips to $1.3995-$1.4025,
a move back above the latter needed to provide near term respite.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recovery Nears Next Y108.05-Y108.28 Resistance
*RES 4: Y108.60 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo Y110.48-Y105.55
*RES 3: Y108.46 Feb 6 low, 2018 falling resistance line
*RES 2: Y108.28 Jan 26 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Y108.05 Feb 9 low, now resistance
*PRICE: Y107.69 @1632GMT
*SUP 1: Y107.00/05 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y106.74 Feb 19 high, now support
*SUP 3: Y106.35/45 Hourly lows/highs Feb 16-19
*SUP 4: Y105.92 Hourly base Feb 16 
*COMMENTARY* The recovery continues, moving us even further away from the lower
2% volatility band, which out of interest is at Y105.30 by time today. Today's
move through Y107.65 now allows the next leg higher towards resistance from two
recent Y108.05-Y108.28 lows. In the interim, support moves up to
Y107.05-Y107.00, loss would concern and allow a Y106.74-Y106.35 pullback. Above
Y108.28 and the year's falling resistance line is at Y108.46 today.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Tuesday's Y132.12 Low Becomes Key Intraday Support
*RES 4: Y133.80/86 Feb 12 high, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y131.61
*RES 3: Y133.39 Feb 14 high 
*RES 2: Y133.06/11 Intraday, Feb 16 high 
*RES 1: Y132.80/90 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y132.56 @1635GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.12 Feb 20 low
*SUP 2: Y131.81 Feb 16 low
*SUP 3: Y131.45 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y131.17 Nov 17 low
*COMMENTARY* A fresh rally today, a high of Y133.06 but this still leaves us
below the Feb 14 high at Y133.39. Will need to post gains back above here,
before any confidence in the topside will be restored. Have seen a swift move
down since, Tuesday's Y132.12 low is now the protection against a renewed
downside push, Y131.81-Y131.45 the next levels lower, ahead of the Nov 17 low at
Y131.17. Meanwhile, Y132.80-Y132.90 provides nearest resistance.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback From Recent Range Top Tests Stg0.8805 On Tuesday
*RES 4: Stg0.8920/26 Feb 14, Jan 12 highs
*RES 3: Stg0.8890 Feb 16 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8870/75 Feb 19 high, Feb 14 low
*RES 1: Stg0.8858 Intraday high
*PRICE: Stg0.8827 @1636GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8805 61.8% of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920, Feb 20 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8776/79 76.4% of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920, Feb 9 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8766 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Stg0.8732/42 Feb 8 low, 76.4% of Stg0.8687-Stg0.8920
*COMMENTARY* Continues to lose ground following the failure to deal with range
top resistance at Stg0.8926 last week. Tuesday's loss of Stg0.8843-Stg0.8841
support now sees the first of two dual Fibo support levels at Stg0.8805 as the
next potential target. Any lower and the second dual support from Stg0.8776 then
comes into play. Meanwhile, Stg0.8848-Stg0.8855 becomes resistance,
Stg0.8870-Stg0.8875 currently more important above.
     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7824-$0.7810 Next As Correction Deepens
*RES 4: $0.7987/92 Feb 1 low, 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759
*RES 3: $0.7966 Feb 15 high
*RES 2: $0.7934/36 Feb 20, Feb 19 highs
*RES 1: $0.7903/10 Intraday high, hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7833 @1640GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7824 76.4% Fibo of $0.7773-$0.7989
*SUP 2: $0.7810/15 Hourly basing area Feb 9-Feb 12
*SUP 3: $0.7797 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $0.7773 Feb 14 low
*COMMENTARY* The inability to deal with $0.7934-$0.7936 resistance over the last
couple of days has seen risk return lower especially given the loss of interim
$0.7893-$0.7890 support. Below here opens up deeper corrective opportunities of
recent $0.7759-$0.7989 gains. The congested $0.7845-$0.7840 area now the brake
to a deeper $0.7824-$0.7810 fall. Resistance $0.7903-$0.7910 but a move through
that $0.7934-$0.7936 area needed to alleviate pressure.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Nears Feb 9 High And Upper 1% Vol Band
*RES 4: $1.2827/37 2% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.2689-$1.2450
*RES 3: $1.2762 76.4% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249
*RES 2: $1.2701 1% volatility band
*RES 1: $1.2689 Feb 9 high
*PRICE: $1.2679 @1642GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2615/20 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2593 Feb 19 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2557/68 Feb 16 high, hourly basing Feb 19 
*SUP 4: $1.2528 Feb 19 low
*COMMENTARY* The 'Doji' candle close on Feb 9 produced a $1.2689-$1.2450 setback
over the course of the last week, before some oversold conditions appeared and
have allowed a recovery. The latest rise through $1.2650 now sees that Feb 9
high and the upper 1% volatility band, at $1.2701 by time today, as the next
potential barrier higher. In the meantime, support moves up to $1.2620-$1.2593.
Should stay above the latter now, if the current rally is set to continue.
GOLD TECHS: Correction Of This Month's Gains Continues
*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high
*RES 3: $1351.6 Feb 19 high
*RES 2: $1344.9 Feb 16 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1339.2 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1327.9 @1643GMT
*SUP 1: $1325.2 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1320.0 76.4% Fibo of $1307.1-$1361.8
*SUP 3: $1318.1 Feb 14 low
*SUP 4: $1307.1 Feb 8 low
*COMMENTARY* Unable to find the ability to retest the year's $1366.2 high and
has been gradually suffering since. The latest fall back beneath $1344.9 allows
some further correction of recent gains from this month's $1307.1 base. In this
respect the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1320.0 and the Feb 14 low at $1318.1
now offer a potential reprieve. In the interim, resistance falls to
$1339.2-$1344.9 but back above $1351.6 needed to revive upside interest. 
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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