MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2360-$1.2369 Still In The Way Of Continued Recovery

*RES 4: $1.2486/90 76.4% of $1.2556-$1.2260, 1% vol band

*RES 3: $1.2435 Feb 19 high

*RES 2: $1.2413/16 Hourly recovery highs Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2360/69 Feb 21 high, 1% vol band, Feb 19 low

*PRICE: $1.2332 @0835GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2278 Feb 26 low

*SUP 2: $1.2260 Feb 22 low

*SUP 3: $1.2243 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2206 Feb 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Broke below $1.2289-$1.2276 last Thursday, a low of $1.2260, ahead

of the next downside markers, the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2243 and the

Feb 9 low at $1.2206. Some near term oversold conditions can see a rise but

likely needs to sustain a move back above $1.2360-$1.2369, before any real

upside confidence will appear, for some correction of losses from $1.2556. Below

$1.2206 and attention will switch to the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2173.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Falters Below Fibo Retrace At $1.4077

*RES 4: $1.4132/45 1% volatility band, Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1.4089 One month falling resistance line

*RES 2: $1.4070/77 Feb 26 high, 76.4% of $1.4145-$1.3924

*RES 1: $1.4015/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3986 @0845GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3953 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3924/28 Initial low Feb 23, Feb 26 low

*SUP 3: $1.3905/07 Feb 23 low, 76.4% of $1.3857-$1.4070

*SUP 4: $1.3852/57 1% vol, 76.4% of $1.3765-$1.4145, Feb 22

*COMMENTARY* Continued it's recovery from a test to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level

at $1.3855 last Thursday. Had to endure a sharp $1.3905 pullback on Friday but

has since clambered higher, Monday heading towards the next resistance area of

note between $1.4077-$1.4089. This before taking another near term hit back

towards $1.3924 support. This the protection to $1.3907-$1.3905, beneath which

would weaken upside argument again. Meantime, $1.4015-$1.4035 resistance.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recovery Falters Beneath Key Y108.05-Y108.28 Resistance

*RES 4: Y107.91/05 Feb 21 high, 1% vol band, Feb 9 low

*RES 3: Y107.61 Hourly recovery high Feb 22

*RES 2: Y107.34 Congestion area Feb 21-22

*RES 1: Y107.21 Feb 23 high

*PRICE: Y107.08 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y106.35/38 Hourly lows/highs Feb 16-19, Feb 26 low

*SUP 3: Y106.10 Feb 19 low

*SUP 4: Y105.55/80 Feb 16 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery came to a halt at Y107.91 last week, leaving us shy of

a test to the key Y108.05-Y108.28 region. As well as these two previous lows,

there is also the upper 1% volatility band at Y107.94 and the 2018 falling

resistance line at Y107.88, to contend with. Will therefore need to conquer this

area, before any real upside impetus will be found. Meanwhile, Y106.55-Y106.35

is initial support but Y106.10-Y105.80 a better gauge to direction below.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Break Above Y132.06 Allows Chance For Some Respite

*RES 4: Y133.06 Feb 21 high

*RES 3: Y132.78 Hourly recovery high Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.55 76.4% Fibo of Y133.06-Y130.94

*RES 1: Y132.25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.02 @0928GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.60/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.24 Hourly congestion area Feb 23-26

*SUP 3: Y130.83/94 1% vol band, Feb 23 low

*SUP 4: Y130.51 1.618 swing of Y131.61-Y133.39

*COMMENTARY* Sank again on Friday, moving below the key Y131.17-Y131.04 support

area. Below then look toward the lower 1% volatility band at Y130.83 today, as

the last protection against a deeper Y130.51-Y130.26 fall. Meanwhile, the break

above Y132.06 allows a breather, some congested resistance now from between

Y132.25-Y132.78, the stumbling block to a recovery and retest to Y133.06. Near

term support now from Y131.60-Y131.24.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8876-Stg0.8769 Support Holds Under Pressure 

*RES 4: Stg0.8920/26 Feb 14, Jan 12 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8890 Feb 16 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8864 Feb 22 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8835/42 Feb 26 high, 76.4% of 0.8864-0.8772

*PRICE: Stg0.8833 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8785 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8772/76 Feb 26 low, 76.4% of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920

*SUP 3: Stg0.8769 1.618 swing of Stg0.8805-Stg0.8864

*SUP 4: Stg0.8750 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Continued to lose ground last week, following the failure to deal

with range top resistance at Stg0.8926 earlier in the month. The first of two

dual Fibo support levels at Stg0.8805 gave way on Friday, leaving the second

dual support from Stg0.8776 to protect ahead of the swing target and 1%

volatility band between Stg0.8769-Stg0.8750. Meanwhile, Stg0.8835-Stg0.8842

becomes resistance, above would allow some Stg0.8864-Stg0.8890 respite.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7893 Resistance Caps Rally On Monday

*RES 4: $0.7955 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7936/42 Feb 19 high, 76.4% of $0.7989-$0.7790

*RES 2: $0.7915 Congestion area Feb 16-20

*RES 1: $0.7893 Feb 16 low, Feb 26 high

*PRICE: $0.7839 @0940GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7826 Feb 26 low

*SUP 2: $0.7804 Feb 23 low

*SUP 3: $0.7790/95 Feb 22 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7759 Feb 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Suffered another challenge to the lower 1% volatility band last

Thursday, $0.7790 at the time. This the top end of what looks a congested band

of support from above the Feb 9 low at $0.7759 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at $0.7744. Meanwhile, some oversold hourly conditions have produced a rally.

Resistance from the Feb 16 low at $0.7893 now the bar to a higher

$0.7915-$0.7942 rise. Support now seen from between $0.7826 and $0.7804.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Feb 23 High At $1.2726 The Bar To Continued Recovery

*RES 4: $1.2846 1.618 swing of $1.2758-$1.2615

*RES 3: $1.2758/62 Feb 21 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249

*RES 2: $1.2726 Feb 23 high

*RES 1: $1.2712 Feb 26 high

*PRICE: $1.2692 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2640/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2604/15 50% of $1.2450-$1.2758, Feb 26 low

*SUP 3: $1.2557/68 Feb 16 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2450-$1.2758

*SUP 4: $1.2523/28 76.4% Fibo of $1.2450-$1.2758, Feb 19 low 

*COMMENTARY* The rally was stopped in its tracks at $1.2758 last Wednesday, just

ahead of the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2762. The subsequent fall correcting

the most recent rise from $1.2450, with the 50% Fibo retrace level at $1.2604

the protection against a further $1.2568-$1.2523 fall. As a result, resistance

now moves to $1.2712-$1.2726. Support from $1.2650-$1.2640 protects against

another push lower.

GOLD TECHS: Finds Support From Above 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level At $1320.0

*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 2: $1346.6 Feb 20 high

*RES 1: $1343.5 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1333.6 @0952GMT

*SUP 1: $1325.9 Feb 23 low

*SUP 2: $1320.0 76.4% Fibo of $1307.1-$1361.8

*SUP 3: $1318.1 Feb 14 low

*SUP 4: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to find the ability to retest the year's $1366.2 high and

has been gradually suffering since. The latest fall back beneath $1344.9 allows

some further correction of recent gains from this month's $1307.1 base. In this

respect the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1320.0 and the Feb 14 low at $1318.1

now offer a potential reprieve. In the interim, resistance moves to

$1343.5-$1346.6 but back above $1351.6 needed to revive upside interest. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]