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10Y Vol Sale


Pekao Sees NBP Hiking By 75bps Next Week

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2340-$1.2365 Now Bar The Way To Further Progress
*RES 4: $1.2415/20 1% vol band, broken bull channel base
*RES 3: $1.2403 61.8% Fibo of $1.2556-$1.2155
*RES 2: $1.2365 Mar 2 high
*RES 1: $1.2340/45 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2322 @0940GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2252/69 Mar 2, intraday lows
*SUP 2: $1.2205 Hourly congestion Feb 28-Mar 1
*SUP 3: $1.2155/65 Mar 1 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.2093 Sep 8 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Found support last week from a combination of the lower 1%
volatility band and a 38.2% Fibo retrace level. The subsequent recovery now
tries to renegotiate resistance from between $1.2340-$1.2365. Back through here
would allow a move up to the next area of note from $1.2403, a 61.8% Fibo level
and the swing target of the most recent $1.2365-$1.2269 fall, at $1.2424. In the
interim, that $1.2269 level and the Mar 2 low at $1.2252 provide support.
CABLE TECHS: Feb 22 Low At $1.3854 The Next Resistance To Consider
*RES 4: $1.3997 Feb 27 high
*RES 3: $1.3928 Feb 26 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3890 Hourly lows Feb 28, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3857 Feb 22 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3821 @1003GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3767 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.3745/56 1% volatility band, Mar 2 low
*SUP 3: $1.3712 Mar 1 low
*SUP 4: $1.3668 76.4% Fibo of $1.3458-$1.4346
*COMMENTARY* Has recovered in the near term since last Thursday's dip to
$1.3712. Will now need to see progress through recent $1.3815-$1.3817 highs,
before the chance of a test to the next resistance of note, from the Feb 22 low
at $1.3857. In the meantime, the day's $1.3767 low and then the $1.3756-$1.3745
area, currently protect the downside from another examination, the 76.4% Fibo
retrace level at $1.3668 the prominent support below $1.3712.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Further Recovery Has Y105.77-Y106.00 Resistance
*RES 4: Y106.74 Hourly congestion Feb 28-Mar 1
*RES 3: Y106.55 Initial low Mar 1, now resistance
*RES 2: Y106.38 Feb 26 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Y106.00 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y105.61 @1017GMT
*SUP 1: Y105.25 Mar 2 low
*SUP 2: Y104.60 2% volatility band
*SUP 3: Y104.09 1.618 swing of Y105.55-Y107.91
*SUP 4: Y103.64 76.4% Fibo of Y99.00-Y118.67
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to lose ground since last Monday's Y107.68 high. The
subsequent loss of the previous Y105.55 low has reached Y105.25 so far, before
finding some near term respite from some oversold hourly conditions. Now has
Y105.77-Y106.00 in the way of any further gains and better recovery of some of
those losses. Below Y105.25 and the lower 2% volatility band at Y104.60 is the
protection against a drop to the swing target at Y104.09.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Meets Y130.25-Y130.53 Resistance
*RES 4: Y130.94 Feb 23 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y130.80 Mar 1 high
*RES 2: Y130.53 Mar 2 high
*RES 1: Y130.25 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y130.19 @1028GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.55/65 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y129.35 Intraday low
*SUP 3: Y128.85 38.2% Fibo of Y114.85-Y137.51
*SUP 4: Y128.53 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* A fresh fall today has seen a low of Y129.35 so far, before finding
some support on the back of some near term oversold conditions. This likely
meets resistance from between Y130.25 and last Friday's Y130.53 high. Back
through the latter currently required before considering the potential for a
higher Y130.80-Y130.94 bounce. Below Y129.35 and the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at
Y128.85 is the next downside target, ahead of the lower 2% volatility band.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Fibo Retrace At Stg0.8951 Caps Rally So Far
*RES 4: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high, 1.618 swing 0.8920-0.8771
*RES 3: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8951 Mar 2 high, 76.4% of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687
*RES 1: Stg0.8937 1% volatility band
*PRICE: Stg0.8914 @1042GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8905/08 Hourly support, intraday low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8883 Hourly base Mar 1
*SUP 3: Stg0.8864 Feb 22 high, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8837 Mar 1 low
*COMMENTARY* Have recently seen a move through the range top at Stg0.8920-26. So
far, this has been halted at Stg0.8951, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level of the
Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687 fall seen since the beginning of October last year. Will
need to maintain a break through here, before the potential for a higher
Stg0.8981-Stg0.9013 rise will occur. In the meantime, Stg0.8905 provides support
and a brake against some deeper correction of recent gains.
     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7781-$0.7794 Stands In Way Of Better Recovery
*RES 4: $0.7850 Hourly congestion area Feb 26-27
*RES 3: $0.7819 Feb 28 high
*RES 2: $0.7794 76.4% Fibo of $0.7819-$0.7713
*RES 1: $0.7781 Feb 28 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7749 @1056GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7725 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: $0.7713 Mar 1 low
*SUP 3: $0.7695 Dec 15 high, now support
*SUP 4: $0.7647/52 2% vol band, 76.4% of $0.7502-$0.8136
*COMMENTARY* Break below the previous $0.7759 low last week has resulted in a
base at $0.7713 so far, before picking up aided by some near term oversold
conditions. This keeps us above the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7725 for the
time  being today but will need the added emphasis of a $0.7781-$0.7794 break,
before any further confidence in the upside will follow. Below $0.7713 and the
Dec 15 high at $0.7695 protects against a deeper $0.7652-$0.7647 fall.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2921-$1.2948 A Potential Near Term Cap
*RES 4: $1.3083 6 month bull channel top projection
*RES 3: $1.3017 2% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.2948 1.618 swing of $1.2895-$1.2809
*RES 1: $1.2921/23 Dec 19 high, equality rise from $1.2615
*PRICE: $1.2895 @1110GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2835/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2809 Mar 1 low
*SUP 3: $1.2758 Feb 22 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2732 Hourly basing area Feb 27
*COMMENTARY* The rally once again testing toward the previous $1.2921 high from
Dec 19 last year, this joined by the equality rise target at $1.2923 and the
swing target at $1.2948, provide a potential near term ceiling at present. While
capped below here, look to $1.2850-$1.2835 for support. Loss of the latter would
concern now, ahead of last Thursday's $1.2809 base. Directly through $1.2948 and
not much before the 2% volatility band at $1.3017.
GOLD TECHS: 'Doji' Candle Close After Fall Held Above 50% Fibo Level
*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high
*RES 3: $1351.6 Feb 19 high
*RES 2: $1341.1 Feb 26 high
*RES 1: $1332.1 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1325.5 @1118GMT
*SUP 1: $1317.5 Feb 23 low
*SUP 2: $1311.8 76.4% Fibo of $1307.1-$1361.8
*SUP 3: $1307.1 Feb 8 low low
*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low
*COMMENTARY* Found support at $1302.8 last Thursday. just ahead of the 50% Fibo
retrace level at $1301.4. This of the preceding $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. The
subsequent recovery has been aided by the appearance of a potentially bullish
'Doji' candle close on the daily chart last Thursday. Next resistance comes from
$1332.1, through here will allow a better $1341.1-$1351.6 rise. Above the latter
then needed to reinvigorate the upside. Nearest support $1317.5-$1311.8.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: