MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2365 Loss Opens Door To Correction

*RES 4: $1.2460/61 U'side bull channel, 76.4% $1.2556-$1.2155

*RES 3: $1.2446 Mar 7 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2415/16 Hourly congestion Mar 7-8

*RES 1: $1.2385 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2333 @1627GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2328 Mar 6 low

*SUP 2: $1.2300/05 Hourly basing area Mar 2-Mar 5

*SUP 3: $1.2269 Mar 5 low

*SUP 4: $1.2222 Initial rally high Mar 1, now support

*COMMENTARY* The latest rally to $1.2446 on Wednesday, was halted by the upper

1% volatility band and the base of the previously broken bull channel, at the

time. The latter has moved to join the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2461 today.

Through here needed before the way becomes clear for a return to the year's

$1.2556 high. Meanwhile, support from last Friday's $1.2365 high has been lost,

opening the way for some deeper correction of gains from $1.2155.

CABLE TECHS: Slips After Failure To Deal With $1.3928-$1.3930

*RES 4: $1.3954/65 38.2% $1.4346-$1.3712, 5 week res line 

*RES 3: $1.3928/30 Feb 26 low, Mar 6 high

*RES 2: $1.3910/13 Intraday, Mar 7 highs

*RES 1: $1.3870/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3826 @1640GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3817 Mar 6 low

*SUP 2: $1.3790/95 Hourly congestion Mar 2-Mar 5

*SUP 3: $1.3756 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: $1.3726 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to penetrate the $1.3928-$1.3930 resistance area and has

bowed to some near term pressure from overbought hourly conditions. This has

seen the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3847 give way, this of the most recent rise

from $1.3817. The latter and then $1.3790 then provide the next area of support

on any slip lower but the Mar 2 low at $1.3756 is of more importance. Resistance

now strung between $1.3870-$1.3913.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.26-Y106.46 The Immediate Problem To The Recovery

*RES 4: Y107.20 Mar 1 high

*RES 3: Y106.74/80 76.4% Y107.20-Y105.25, 2018 res line

*RES 2: Y106.46/55 61.8% Y107.20-Y105.25, initial low Mar 1

*RES 1: Y106.22/26 76.4% Y106.46-Y105.46, hourly high Mar 6

*PRICE: Y106.13 @1642GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.60/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y105.34/46 1% vol band, Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: Y105.25 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: Y104.50 1.618 swing of Y105.25-Y106.46

*COMMENTARY* The recovery seemingly ran out of steam at Y106.46 on Tuesday and

has lost ground since. The congested Y105.50 area came under assault yesterday,

leaving the lower 1% volatility band, at Y105.34 today and last Friday's Y105.25

low vulnerable below. As a result, resistance falls but likely requires a move

back above Y106.26 and then Y106.46 for any real respite. Lose Y105.25 and not

much currently evident until Y104.50-Y104.28.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Confusion Reigns As Conflicting Signals Appear

*RES 4: Y132.35/47 1% vol band, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y129.35

*RES 3: Y132.19 Feb 27 high

*RES 2: Y131.98/02 Intraday, Mar 6 highs

*RES 1: Y131.45/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.86 @1645GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.53/60 Mar 2 high, Mar 6 low

*SUP 2: Y130.27 Initial rally high Mar 5, now support

*SUP 3: Y129.95/00 Congestion area Feb 28-Mar 5

*SUP 4: Y129.68 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Monday's bullish 'outside day' resulted in a Y132.02 rise, before

meeting resistance from some overbought conditions. The subsequent lower close

has now seen the appearance of a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle at Tuesday's

close. The loss of Y130.93 support switches attention to the Y130.60-Y130.53

area for next clues. Have to hold above the latter or risk returns lower.

Meanwhile, Y131.45-Y131.50 provides resistance ahead of Y132.02 again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Challenges The Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.9032 Oct 12 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high, 1.618 swing 0.8920-0.8771

*RES 2: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8968 Mar 7 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Stg0.8908 @1649GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8905 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8885 Mar 5 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8864 Feb 22 high, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8844 Feb 27 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Broke above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8951 yesterday and

the upper 1% volatility band at Stg0.8968 was also challenged. Clearly sustained

move through here needed before the Nov 28 high at Stg0.8981 becomes viable,

ahead of stronger resistance from Stg0.9013. In the interim, support comes from

above Stg0.8905. A loss of the latter would caution and weaken the immediate

upside argument.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7851-$0.7877 Next Target Area After $0.7794 Break

*RES 4: $0.7924 50% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7713

*RES 3: $0.7893 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $0.7875 38.2% of $0.8136-$0.7713, 1% vol band

*RES 1: $0.7843/51 Mar 6 high, 76.4% of $0.7893-$0.7713

*PRICE: $0.7780 @1651GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7771/74 Mar 2, Mar 5 highs, now support

*SUP 2: $0.7756 Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: $0.7738 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: $0.7713/16 Mar 1 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Break beneath the previous $0.7759 low last week resulted in a base

at $0.7713, before picking up aided by some near term oversold conditions. This

keeps us above the lower 1% volatility band, at $0.7716 today and with the added

emphasis of a 0.7794 break, now suggests scope for a further $0.7851-$0.7875

rise. Support comes initially from above $0.7771, although Tuesday's $0.7756 low

currently provides a stronger level below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Upside Dependent On Continued Hold Above 1.2854 

*RES 4: $1.3109 Equality rise from $1.2249 to $1.2061-$1.2921

*RES 3: $1.3099 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3089 1.618 swing of $1.3002-$1.2862, 6 mth channel

*RES 1: $1.3001/02 Mar 6, Mar 5 highs

*PRICE: $1.2948 @1653GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2880 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2854/62 38.2% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002, Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: $1.2809 Mar 1 low, 50% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*SUP 4: $1.2758/63 Feb 22 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*COMMENTARY* After two attempts is so far unable to move with any conviction

above $1.3000 as yet. The subsequent pullback meeting support from above the

38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2854. This of the gains seen since the Feb 26 low

at $1.2615. As a result, we have seen some correction with key support located

between $1.2862-$1.2854. Above $1.3002 and the higher $1.3089-$1.3109 region

will come into focus next.

GOLD TECHS: 'Doji' Candle Close After Fall Held Above 50% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 2: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 1: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*PRICE: $1320.4 @1654GMT

*SUP 1: $1317.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1311.2 Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support at $1302.8 last Thursday, just ahead of the 50% Fibo

retrace level at $1301.4. This of the preceding $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. The

subsequent recovery has been aided by the appearance of a potentially bullish

'Doji' candle close on the daily chart last Thursday. Tuesday's move back above

$1332.1, now allows the chance of a better $1341.1-$1351.6 rise. Above the

latter then needed to reinvigorate the upside. Nearest support $1317.5-$1311.2.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]