MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Faces Initial $1.2397-$1.2413 Barrier

*RES 4: $1.2455/61 1% vol band, 76.4% of $1.2556-$1.2155

*RES 3: $1.2446 Mar 7 high

*RES 2: $1.2413 Mar 14 high

*RES 1: $1.2397 76.4% Fibo of $1.2446-$1.2240

*PRICE: $1.2358 @0838GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2332/42 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2296 Initial recovery high Mar 21, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2260/65 Hourly basing area Mar 16-Mar 21

*SUP 4: $1.2224/40 76.4% of $1.2155-$1.2446, Mar 21 low

*COMMENTARY* Attempting a clear break above the 5 week falling resistance line,

at $1.2367 today. A sustained move through here will find next resistance from

the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2397 and the Mar 14 high at $1.2413. While

capped here, look to $1.2342-$.2332 for initial support, $1.2296 currently of

more consequence below and protection against a $1.2265-$1.2240 return. Directly

above $1.2413 and the old adversaries between $1.2446-$1.2461 remain higher.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Reaches Into $1.4175-$1.4196 Resistance Zone

*RES 4: $1.4346 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1.4272/79 2% volatility band, Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 2: $1.4196 76.4% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 1: $1.4175/79 3 week bull channel top, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.4157 @0854GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4100/05 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4079/89 Hourly high Mar 21, Mar 19 high

*SUP 3: $1.4055/60 Hourly congestion area Mar 21

*SUP 4: $1.4018/20 Hourly base Mar 19, initial high Mar 20

*COMMENTARY* Has recovered well from Tuesday's drop to $1.3983. Today's rally

has slightly surpassed the 3 week bull channel top at $1.4175, while having eyes

for a test of the next level of note, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.4196.

As a result, support also rises, $1.4105-$1.4100 initially and then

$1.4089-$1.4079. Loss would open up deeper $1.4060-$1.4018 corrective potential.

Above $1.4196 and $1.4272-$1.4279 becomes next challenge.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Downside Pressure Resumes, Y106.00-Y106.10 Resistance

*RES 4: Y106.89 76.4% Fibo of Y107.30-Y105.58

*RES 3: Y106.64/65 61.8% Fibo of Y107.30-Y105.58, Mar 21 high

*RES 2: Y106.42 Mar 15 high

*RES 1: Y106.00/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y105.69 @0910GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.58/60 Intraday, Mar 16 lows

*SUP 2: Y105.17/25 1% volatility band, Mar 2 low

*SUP 3: Y104.95 1.618 swing of Y105.60-Y106.65

*SUP 4: Y104.11 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* This week's recovery was stopped in its tracks by the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at Y106.65 on Wednesday. The subsequent fall has been swift, once

again exerting pressure on the Y105.60 area. A low of Y105.58 so far, protecting

the key area between Y105.25 and the lower 1% volatility band at Y105.17. In the

interim, resistance from Y106.00-Y106.10, above would allow some respite. Below

Y105.17 and the swing target at Y104.95 prevents deeper Y104.11-Y103.98 fall.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Consolidation After Recovery Stalls Below 76.4% Fibo Level

*RES 4: Y132.44/47 Mar 13 high, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y129.35

*RES 3: Y132.27 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y131.73/77 Mar 20 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y132.44-Y129.61

*RES 1: Y131.15/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.45 @0916GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.20/30 Mar 21 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.08 Hourly base Mar 16

*SUP 3: Y129.61/65 Mar 19 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y129.35 Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from Y129.61 stalled just below the 76.4% Fibo retrace

level at Y131.77 on Tuesday. Some near term overbought conditions putting an end

to the rise at Y131.73. Subsequent pullback has broken below Y130.35 support,

loss concerns but the Y130.08 level currently remains more pivotal to direction.

Below would swing bias back to the downside. Above Y131.77 and scope to increase

gains toward Y132.30-Y132.47, where equally important upside decisions are made.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Fall Heads Toward Base Of 6 Month Trading Range

*RES 4: Stg0.8874 Mar 15 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8839 Mar 16 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8800/08 Mar 19 hourly high, Mar 16 low

*RES 1: Stg0.8765/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8714 @0926GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8708 Mar 21 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8687 Jan 25 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8633 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area early in the month, has continued apace this week. A low of

Stg0.8708 on Wednesday, as we head toward the base of the range at Stg0.8687. In

the meantime, any recovery will need to deal with resistance from

Stg0.8765-Stg0.8775 before seeing the opportunity of some respite and greater

correction of those losses from the Mar 7 high at Stg0.8968.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Keeps Pressure Off Key Support Area

*RES 4: $0.7859 76.4% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 3: $0.7823 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 2: $0.7786/94 Intraday high, 50% of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 1: $0.7765/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7746 @0938GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7700/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7672 Mar 21 low

*SUP 3: $0.7643/52 6 week bear channel, 76.4% $0.7502-$0.8136 

*SUP 4: $0.7628/34 Dec 14 low, 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fall reached $0.7672 on Wednesday before finding some support

and the strength to rally. This prevented a test into the key support from

around $0.7650. The subsequent rise to a high of $0.7786 so far today, currently

looks 5 wave impulsive, so provided any setbacks are ideally held above

$0.7715-$0.7700, there may be scope to increase gains into the $0.7823-$0.7859

area. Below

$0.7700 will disappoint and suggest rise has been a false dawn.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Reaches Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3010/12 Initial low Mar 21, 61.8% Fibo retrace

*RES 3: $1.2976/77 Hourly recovery high Mar 21, 50% Fibo

*RES 2: $1.2943 38.2% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2830 

*RES 1: $1.2900/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2879 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2830 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.2803 Mar 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.2790 38.2% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*SUP 4: $1.2706/19 2% vol band, 38.2% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.3125

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from Monday's test to the swing target at $1.3125 has

been rapid. Today's extended fall below $1.2877 support finding some respite

from the lower 1% volatility band, at $1.2830 by time today. Has become oversold

in the near term and eyes are initially on the $1.2900-$1.2905 area. Will need

back through here before the chance of a greater correction of those losses from

$1.3125. Below $1.2830 and $1.2803-$1.2790 next supports.

GOLD TECHS: $1307.1 Support Holds And Produces A Bounce

*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1351.1 Feb 1 high, 76.4% of $1366.2-$1302.8

*RES 2: $1341.1/42.0 Feb 26 high, 61.8% of $1366.2-$1302.8

*RES 1: $1336.7 Mar 21 high

*PRICE: $1329.1 @1000GMT

*SUP 1: $1314.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Found support from just above the Feb 7 low at $1307.1 on Tuesday

and the subsequent recovery through $1334.1, although embryonic, is near term

encouraging. Provided any dips are able to stay above $1314.0, then the next

resistance of note comes from $1341.1-$1342.0. This the Feb 26 high and 61.8%

Fibo retrace of the losses sustained since the year's $1366.2 high on Jan 25.

Below $1314.0 will disappoint and put $1307.3 back under pressure.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]