MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Falters Below $1.2397-$1.2413 Barrier

*RES 4: $1.2446 Mar 7 high

*RES 3: $1.2413 Mar 14 high

*RES 2: $1.2389/97 Mar 22 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2446-$1.2240

*RES 1: $1.2355/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2340 @0847GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2286 Mar 22 low

*SUP 2: $1.2260/65 Hourly basing area Mar 16-Mar 21

*SUP 3: $1.2224/40 76.4% of $1.2155-$1.2446, Mar 21 low

*SUP 4: $1.2206 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Attempted a clear break above the 5 week falling resistance line

yesterday, at $1.2360 today. A sustained move through here will find next

resistance from the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2397 and the Mar 14 high at

$1.2413. While capped below here, there is scope for a pullback, $1.2286 now of

more consequence and protection against a $1.2265-$1.2240 return. Directly above

$1.2413 and the old adversaries between $1.2446-$1.2461 remain higher.

CABLE TECHS: Sharp Pullback After Brief Rally Through $1.4195 Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1.4279 Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 3: $1.4220 Mar 22 high

*RES 2: $1.4185 Mar 22 hourly highs

*RES 1: $1.4145/52 Hourly resistance, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.4104 @0909GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4055/60 Hourly congestion area Mar 21

*SUP 2: $1.4018/20 Hourly base Mar 19, initial high Mar 20

*SUP 3: $1.3983 Mar 20 low

*SUP 4: $1.3960/65 Congestion area Mar 13-Mar 16

*COMMENTARY* Recovered well from Tuesday's drop to $1.3983. Thursday's rally

surpassed the 3 week bull channel top and also the next level of note, the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level both at $1.4195. A high of $1.4220 before running into some

near term heavily overbought conditions. As a result of the subsequent fall, now

looking at $1.4060-$1.4018 corrective potential. Resistance meanwhile comes from

$1.4145-$1.4152 and then $1.4185.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Pressure Resumes After Loss Of Key Y105.25-Y104.95 Support

*RES 4: Y106.15/20 Hourly lows/highs Mar 20-21

*RES 3: Y105.97 Hourly recovery high Mar 22

*RES 2: Y105.60 Mar 16 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y105.35/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y104.94 @0920GMT

*SUP 1: Y104.64 Mar 22 low

*SUP 2: Y104.09 1.618 swing Y105.55-Y107.91

*SUP 3: Y103.91/98 Channel base, 1.618 swing Y105.25-Y107.30

*SUP 4: Y103.84 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* This week's recovery was stopped in its tracks by the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at Y106.65 on Wednesday. The resulting fall has been swift, losing

support from Y105.60 initially and more latterly the key Y105.25-Y104.95 area. A

low so far of Y104.64, as we head towards the remaining swing targets between

Y104.09 and Y103.98. These ahead of the 16 month bear channel base at Y103.91.

Immediate resistance from Y105.35-Y105.60.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fresh Fall Has Y128.90-Y128.85 Support

*RES 4: Y131.07 Mar 21 high

*RES 3: Y130.56 Initial low Mar 22, now resistance

*RES 2: Y130.20/25 Mar 21 low, hourly high Mar 22

*RES 1: Y129.75/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y129.41 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y128.85/90 38.2% Fibo, equality fall from Y131.73 

*SUP 3: Y128.30 1.618 swing of Y129.61-Y131.73

*SUP 4: Y128.01 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from Y129.61 stalled just below the 76.4% Fibo retrace

level at Y131.77 on Tuesday. Some near term overbought conditions putting an end

to the rise at Y131.73. Subsequent pullback broke below Y130.35-Y130.08 support,

raising concerns. Continued fall below the Mar 5 low at Y129.35 has next support

from Y128.90-Y128.85. An equality fall from Y131.73 and the 38.2% Fibo retrace

of the Y114.85-Y137.51 rise seen since last April. Resistance Y129.75-Y130.25.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovers After Brief Break Below 6 Month Trading Range

*RES 4: Stg0.8850 Mar 12 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8817 Mar 19 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8782 Hourly high Mar 20

*RES 1: Stg0.8750/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8745 @0932GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8685/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8621 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area early in the month, has continued apace this week.

Thursday's sharp dip to Stg0.8668 briefly breaking the base of the range at

Stg0.8687, before finding respite on the back of oversold hourly conditions. In

this respect, nearest resistance comes from between Stg0.8750-Stg0.8760 but

likely requires a further move above Stg0.8782 to gain any real relief.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Keeps Pressure Off Key $0.7652 Support Area

*RES 4: $0.7859 76.4% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 3: $0.7823 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 2: $0.7786/94 Mar 22 high, 50% of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 1: $0.7755/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7714 @0937GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7687 Mar 22 low

*SUP 2: $0.7672 Mar 21 low

*SUP 3: $0.7652 76.4% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136 

*SUP 4: $0.7628/39 Dec 14 low, 6 week bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* The fall reached $0.7672 on Wednesday before finding some support

and the strength to rally. This prevented a test into the key support from

$0.7652. The subsequent rise to a high of $0.7786, currently looks 5 wave

impulsive, so although the setback has fallen below the ideal support at

$0.7700, there may still be scope for increased gains to follow while above

$0.7672, given Wednesday's 'outside day'. Resistance $0.7755-$0.7765.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline So Far Held By Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2976/77 Hourly recovery high Mar 21, 50% Fibo

*RES 3: $1.2943/49 38.2% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2830, Mar 22 high 

*RES 2: $1.2920/25 Hourly congestion Mar 22-23

*RES 1: $1.2895 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2858 @1306GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2830/40 Mar 22 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.2803 Mar 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.2790 38.2% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*SUP 4: $1.2756/58 1.618 swing $1.2830-$1.2949, Feb 22 high

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from Monday's test to the swing target at $1.3125 has

been rapid. Thursday's extended fall below $1.2877 support finding some respite

from the lower 1% volatility band, $1.2830 at the time. Became oversold in the

near term and the break back above $1.2900-$1.2905 has seen a rise to the 38.2%

retrace of those losses from $1.3125. Below $1.2830 and $1.2803-$1.2790 next

supports, ahead of dual $1.2758-$1.2756 area.

GOLD TECHS: $1342.0 Break Sees $1351.1-$1354.9 Potential

*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 2: $1354.9 2 month bear channel top

*RES 1: $1351.1 Feb 1 high, 76.4% of $1366.2-$1302.8

*PRICE: $1347.2 @1257GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.8 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1324.8 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: $1317.6 Mar 5 low

*SUP 4: $1312.9 Mar 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from above the Feb 7 low at $1307.1 on Tuesday and

the subsequent recovery through $1334.1 is near term encouraging. Next

resistance of note from 1342.0, a 61.8% Fibo retrace of the losses sustained

since the year's $1366.2 high on Jan 25 has been breached today. Above and look

to continue the rise toward the 76.4% retrace and Feb 1 high at $1351.1 and the

2 month bear channel top at $1354.9. Support $1331.8-$1324.8.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]