MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Unable To Break Above The 1% Volatility band

*RES 4: $1.2520 1.618 swing of $1.2413-$1.2240

*RES 3: $1.2470/77 1% volatility band, Mar 27 high

*RES 2: $1.2455 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1.2422 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2386 @0736GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2372 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2341/52 1.618 swing $1./2372-$1.2422, Mar 26 low

*SUP 3: $1.2317 Equality fall from $1.2422, Mar 23 low

*SUP 4: $1.2286 Mar 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Having made it's way through $1.2397-$1.2446 resistance, needed to

clear the upper 1% volatility band, at $1.2475 by time yesterday, to make a move

on next resistance from the swing target at $1.2520. This the remaining barrier

to the year's previous $1.2556 high. Failure opens the door to some correction

and with the loss of $1.2389, the $1.2341-$1.2317 region becomes favoured. In

the interim, resistance from between the day's $1.2422 high and $1.2455.

CABLE TECHS: Further Correction Risk While $1.4201 Continues To Cap

*RES 4: $1.4279 Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 3: $1.4245 Mar 26, Mar 27 highs

*RES 2: $1.4201 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.4185 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4150 @0748GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4095 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4066 Mar 27 low

*SUP 3: $1.4022 Equality fall from $1.4201 to $1.4245-$1.4066

*SUP 4: $1.3979/83 50% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.4245, Mar 20 low

*COMMENTARY* Had faltered at the $1.4245 level over the last couple of days,

while endeavouring to make headway into the early Feb highs at $1.4279. This

ahead of the year's previous $1.4346 peak. The subsequent break below

$1.4170-$1.4120 support saw a loss of recent upside momentum, a low of $1.4066

so far, before some near term oversold conditions allowed a return to $1.4201.

While capped here, the risk is for a fresh fall, $1.4022-$1.3983 below $1.4066.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Stalling Around 61.8% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Y106.78 23.6% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63, 1% vol band

*RES 3: Y106.65 Mar 21 high

*RES 2: Y106.15/20 Hourly lows/highs Mar 20-21, 76.4% Fibo

*RES 1: Y105.88/90 61.8% of Y106.65-Y104.64, Mar 27 high

*PRICE: Y105.46 @0752GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.25/29 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y104.87 Mar 26 low

*SUP 3: Y104.63 Mar 23 low

*SUP 4: Y104.09 1.618 swing Y105.55-Y107.91

*COMMENTARY* Has continued it's recovery from last Friday's Y104.63 low, Tuesday

reaching Y105.90, just above the 61.8% Fibo retrace of losses seen since last

week's Y106.65 high. Some near term overbought conditions are currently evident,

so initial support comes from between Y105.29-Y105.25 with Monday's Y104.87 low

of more consequence below. Loss here will concern leaving Y104.63 vulnerable,

beneath which Y104.09-Y103.82 becomes possible.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Overbought After Approach To Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y132.22 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 3: Y131.79/82 1% volatility band, Mar 27 high

*RES 2: Y131.55 Hourly congestion area Mar 27

*RES 1: Y131.30 Hourly recovery high Mar 27

*PRICE: Y130.84 @0805GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.54/58 Hourly base Mar 26, Mar 27 low

*SUP 2: Y130.21/30 Swing target, hourly basing area Mar 26

*SUP 3: Y129.98 Mar 23 high, now support

*SUP 4: Y129.60/65 Hourly congestion area Mar 23-26

*COMMENTARY* Continued it's recovery following last Thursday's fall to Y128.95,

just above the key Y128.90-Y128.85 support area. A high of Y131.82 on Tuesday,

basically equating to a test of the upper 1% volatility band, at the time.

Became overbought in the near term, so a pullback was anticipated. A low of

Y130.58 seen so far but while below Y131.30-Y131.55, the risk is for a deeper

Y130.21-Y129.98 fall. Main support Y129.60-Y129.65.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Is A Near Term Concern

*RES 4: Stg0.8897 Mar 12 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 3: Stg0.8850/53 Mar 12 low, 61.8% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 2: Stg0.8817 Mar 19 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8798/00 Mar 27 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8750 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8735 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8708/10 Mar 21, Mar 23 lows

*SUP 3: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area early in the month, continued apace last week. Thursday's

sharp dip to Stg0.8668 briefly breaking the base of the range at Stg0.8687,

before finding some respite. In this respect, next resistance comes from

Stg0.8800-Stg0.8817 but Tuesday's 'Shooting Star' candle close is however a near

term concern. Support now ranged between Stg0.8735-Stg0.8708.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Triangular Consolidation Breaks To The Downside

*RES 4: $0.7796 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7758 Mar 26 high

*RES 2: $0.7735 Congestion area Mar 23-27

*RES 1: $0.7703 Hourly low Mar 27, intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7663 @0850GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7652 76.4% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136 

*SUP 2: $0.7642 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7627/28 7 week bear channel base, Dec 14 low 

*SUP 4: $0.7602 1.618 swing of $0.76720-$0.7786

*COMMENTARY* The triangular consolidation has broken to the downside, also

losing support from the month's previous $0.7672 low in the process. This sees

risk revert immediately to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and the 1%

volatility band, at the slightly lower $0.7642 level. In the meantime,

resistance comes from the day's $0.7703 high, needing back through here for any

respite. Below $0.7642 and scope to see $0.7627-$0.7602.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Oversold Near Term, $1.2923-$1.2936 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3007/10 61.8% $1.3125-$1.2815, hourly low Mar 21 

*RES 3: $1.2970/76 50% Fibo, Hourly recovery high Mar

*RES 2: $1.2933/36 38.2% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2815, Mar 22 high

*RES 1: $1.2923 Mar 26 high 

*PRICE: $1.2904 @0857GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2835/40 1% volatility band, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2803/15 Mar 12, Mar 27 lows

*SUP 3: $1.2790 38.2% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*SUP 4: $1.2756/58 1.618 swing $1.2830-$1.2949, Feb 22 high

*COMMENTARY* Trying to decouple from support from the lower 1% volatility band,

at $1.2835 by time today. A low of $1.2815 so far, just ahead of decent support

from between $1.2803-$1.2790. Has become oversold in the near term, so looking

toward $1.2903 initially, above and then the more important $1.2923-$1.2936

region, as will need back above here to reduce near term bear bias and produce a

better correction of losses from the month's $1.3125 high.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Challenges Channel Top, $1336.7-$1330.1 Support

*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 2016 high

*RES 3: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 2: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 1: $1356.9 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1341.8 @0902GMT

*SUP 1: $1336.7 Mar 21 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1330.1 Mar 14 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1324.8 Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: $1315.3 Mar 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Made it's way slightly back above $1354.1, the current level of the

2 month bear channel top but as yet unable to sustain it and the chance for a

further $1361.8-$1366.2 rise, as we continue to erase losses since the year's

$1366.2 high. As a consequence, support also rises, two former $1336.7 and

$1330.1 highs now providing the initial protection against any meaningful

setbacks within this years range above $1302.8.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]