MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2337-$1.2346 The Next Potential Upside Barrier

*RES 4: $1.2418/22 1% volatility band, Mar 28 high

*RES 3: $1.2415 76.4% of $1.2477-$1.2215

*RES 2: $1.2372/77 Mar 27 low, 61.8% of $1.2477-$1.2215

*RES 1: $1.2345/46 Apr 2 high, 50% of $1.2477-$1.2215

*PRICE: $1.2325 @0853GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2275/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2261 Apr 9 low

*SUP 3: $1.2235/40 Hourly congestion Apr 5-6

*SUP 4: $1.2215 Apr 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a move back through $1.2291-$1.2315, as we head toward

the next area of resistance between $1.2337-$1.2346. The former the equality

rise from yesterday's $1.2261 low to the prior $1.2215-$1.2291 rally. As a

consequence, support takes a step up, $1.2285-$1.2275 now above that $1.2261

low. Needing to hold here now, in order to preserve upside momentum. Above

$1.2346 and the correction targets $1.2372-$1.2415 next.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Continues Correction of Recent Losses

*RES 4: $1.4245 Mar 26, Mar 27 highs

*RES 3: $1.4215 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.4193 1.618 swing of $1.4165-$1.4120

*RES 1: $1.4179 76.4% Fibo of $1.4245-$1.3966

*PRICE: $1.4162 @0902GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4120 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.4079 Apr 9 low

*SUP 3: $1.4040/45 Hourly congestion Mar 30-Apr 5

*SUP 4: $1.4011/15 Mar 29, 30, Apr 4 lows

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a rally back above the previously troublesome $1.4097

level as well as hourly resistance at $1.4105. Monday the $1.4134-$1.4138 area

was also breached, $1.4179 the remaining Fibo retrace level, as we continue to

correct recent $1.4245-$1.3966 losses. As a result, nearest support rises to

$1.4120 but the lower $1.4079 level now provides the downside with stronger

protection. Above $1.4179 and look to $1.4193-$1.4215 next.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Stalling Below Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y108.04/11 Equality rise from Y105.66, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 3: Y107.84/91 1.618 swing Y107.01-Y105.66, Feb 21 high

*RES 2: Y107.50/70 Apr 5 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y107.25/30 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y107.00 @0908GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57/62 Hourly support, Apr 9 low

*SUP 2: Y106.35 Hourly high/low Apr 3-4

*SUP 3: Y105.99 Apr 4 low

*SUP 4: Y105.66 Apr 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break of pivotal Y106.69 resistance and also the

Y107.22-Y107.30 area. A high of Y107.50 so far, just shy of a test to the upper

1% volatility band, at Y107.70 today. These ahead of the next Y107.84-Y107.91

target zone. As a result, nearest support moves up to Y106.62-Y106.57, although

it would currently take a loss of Y106.35 to impair recent upside momentum.

Directly through Y107.91 and Y108.04-Y108.11 is anticipated next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Approaches Difficult Y132.22-Y132.44 Resistance

*RES 4: Y132.96 1.618 swing of Y132.18-Y129.98

*RES 3: Y132.85 Equality rise from Y129.98 to Y128.95-Y131.82

*RES 2: Y132.43/44 1 volatility band, Mar 13 high

*RES 1: Y132.22 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*PRICE: Y131.84 @0912GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.30/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.07/11 Apr 5, Apr 9 lows

*SUP 3: Y130.75 Hourly congestion area Apr 3-4

*SUP 4: Y130.23 Apr 4 low

*COMMENTARY* Have broken above the Mar 27 high at Y131.82, giving more credence

to the potential for an inverse head and shoulders pattern to have developed

over the last 6 weeks or so. Next up, has to deal with the Y132.22-Y132.44 area,

which may be more problematic, at least in the near term. Support rises to

Y131.40-Y131.30 but Y131.11-Y131.07 currently provides the stronger region.

Directly above Y132.44 and the Y132.85-Y132.96 area becomes next attraction.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Still Exerting Influence

*RES 4: Stg0.8817/30 Mar 19 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8796/98 Mar 30, Mar 27 highs 

*RES 2: Stg0.8775 Hourly congestion area Mar 30-Apr 2

*RES 1: Stg0.8740/50 Hourly resistance, Apr 5-6 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8696 @0921GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8692/99 Intraday low, 76.4% Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798

*SUP 2: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8649 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The 'Shooting Star' candle close on Mar 27 is still exerting some

influence, as we continue to try to break free of Stg0.8699 support. A low of

Stg0.8692 so far, a successful move lower will aim to test the resolve of

Stg0.8668 again, beneath which the lower 1% volatility band and Jun 8 low,

between Stg0.8649-Stg0.8642, protect against a deeper Stg0.8588 fall. Resistance

meanwhile from Stg0.8740-50, above will encourage but Stg0.8775 tougher higher.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Eyes Challenge To $0.7758-$0.7762 Resistance

*RES 4: $0.7812 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7643

*RES 3: $0.7786 Mar 22 high

*RES 2: $0.7758/62 Mar 26 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $0.7739 Intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7723 @0927GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7680/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7650/52 Apr 2, Apr 9 lows

*SUP 3: $0.7641/43 Equality fall from $0.7917, Mar 29 low

*SUP 4: $0.7607/08 1.618 swing $0.7672-$0.7786, 1% vol band

*COMMENTARY* The triangular consolidation broke to the downside, losing support

from last month's previous $0.7672 low. This saw risk revert immediately to

between the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and the equality fall target at

the slightly lower $0.7641 level. A low of $0.7643 actually posted, before

finding some respite. Will need to sustain a move back through $0.7727 however,

before the chance of a challenge to the tougher $0.7758-$0.7762 area.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Testing Resolve Of Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2848 Apr 4 high

*RES 3: $1.2819/26 Apr 9 high, broken support line

*RES 2: $1.2785/95 Hourly highs Apr 6

*RES 1: $1.2733/45 Apr 6 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2689 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2674/85 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.2634 Equality fall from $1.2944 to $1.3125-$1.2815

*SUP 3: $1.2615 Feb 26 low

*SUP 4: $1.2584/93 61.8% $1.2249-$1.3125, 50% $1.2061-$1.3125

*COMMENTARY* Unable to overcome $1.2815-$1.2820 resistance on Monday, leaving

the downside vulnerable to further pressure. This has seen $1.2735-$1.2713

support give way, the $1.2689-$1.2685 area the next potential brake to a deeper

$1.2634-$1.2615 decline. In the interim, resistance falls to $1.2733-$1.2745 but

$1.2785-$1.2795 a stronger barrier above. Monday's action does nothing to dispel

the notion of a head and shoulders pattern.

GOLD TECHS: $1341.3 The Gauge To Renewed Optimism

*RES 4: $1348.3 Apr 4 high

*RES 3: $1344.9 Apr 2 high

*RES 2: $1341.3 Hourly high Mar 28

*RES 1: $1338.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1336.0 @0939GMT

*SUP 1: $1323.8 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1319.7 Apr 6 low

*SUP 3: $1315.6 76.4% Fibo of $1302.8-$1356.9

*SUP 4: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally from the Mar 30 dip to $1321.3, failed at $1348.3 last

Wednesday, as the recent range continued to dictate proceedings. The subsequent

fall below $1328.4 has seen the Mar 29 low at $1321.3 give way, sustained loss

here and a move back into the lower half of the recent range sees $1315.6 as

next support of note and protection against a further $1307.3 decline.

Resistance from $1338.3 but above $1341.3 needed to relieve immediate pressure.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]