MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Stalls Ahead Of Next $1.2415-$1.2435 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1.2477 Mar 27 high

*RES 3: $1.2435 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2415/22 76.4% of $1.2477-$1.2215, Mar 28 high

*RES 1: $1.2370/80 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2342 @1027GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2324 Hourly base Apr 10

*SUP 2: $1.2287/91 Apr 6 high, initial high Apr 9

*SUP 3: $1.2261 Apr 9 low

*SUP 4: $1.2215/24 Apr 6 low, 6 week bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a move above $1.2291-$1.2315, followed the next day by a

break of $1.2337-$1.2346 resistance. Wednesday, we again saw a rally, this time

through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2377. A high of $1.2397 on the day,

perhaps the precursor to an assault on the stronger $1.2415-$1.2435 area.

Support moves up, $1.2324 initially, loss now would caution and suggest scope

for some deeper correction of gains from last Friday's $1.2215 base.

CABLE TECHS: $1.4145 Support Keeps Recent Upside Momentum Intact

*RES 4: $1.4346 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1.4263/79 Swing $1.4224-$1.4161, Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 2: $1.4245 Mar 26, Mar 27 highs, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.4224 Apr 11 high

*PRICE: $1.4180 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4145 Hourly pullback low Apr 10

*SUP 2: $1.4120/25 Apr 10 low, 38.2% Fibo of $1.3966-$1.4224

*SUP 3: $1.4095/97 50% of $1.3966-$1.4224, Apr 5 high

*SUP 4: $1.4065 61.8% Fibo of $1.3966-$1.4224 

*COMMENTARY* Having broken through the remaining 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1.4179, Wednesday saw the rally curtailed by the upper 1% volatility band. This

has moved by time today to join the late March highs at $1.4245. The subsequent

fall has so far been held at the lower end of $1.4160-$1.4145 support. Any loss

of the latter would spoil recent upward momentum and point to correction

potential of gains seen from last Friday's $1.3966 low.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.57-Y106.35 To Hold To Renew Further Upside Potential

*RES 4: Y108.04/11 Equality rise from Y105.66, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 3: Y107.84/91 1.618 swing Y107.01-Y105.66, Feb 21 high

*RES 2: Y107.50/77 Apr 5 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y107.20/29 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y107.11 @1031GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57/62 Hourly support, Apr 9 low

*SUP 2: Y106.35 Hourly high/low Apr 3-4

*SUP 3: Y105.99 Apr 4 low

*SUP 4: Y105.63/66 1% volatility band, Apr 2 low

*COMMENTARY* After faltering at Y107.50 last week, the recovery has paused for

breath, the subsequent pullback currently finding support from above

Y106.62-Y106.57. This and the slightly lower Y106.35 level offer protection

against a deeper pullback of gains, initially from Y105.66 and potentially from

the year's Y104.63 low. Will need to see a move back above Y107.20-Y107.29 to

renew upward enthusiasm, Y107.50-Y107.77 then the bar to fresh highs.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Challenges And Falters At Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y133.23 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 3: Y132.96 1.618 swing of Y132.18-Y129.98

*RES 2: Y132.85 Equality rise from Y129.98 to Y128.95-Y131.82

*RES 1: Y132.62/68 Apr 10 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y132.10 @1032GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.70/80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.38 Hourly base Apr 9

*SUP 3: Y131.07/11 Apr 5, Apr 9 lows

*SUP 4: Y130.59/61 Mar 28, Mar 29 lows

*COMMENTARY* Have broken above the Mar 27 high at Y131.82, giving more credence

to the potential for an inverse head and shoulders pattern to have developed

over the last 6 weeks or so. Next up, now has to deal with the upper 1%

volatility band, which may be more problematic, at least in the near term.

Support rises to Y131.80-Y131.70 but Y131.38 currently provides the stronger

level. Above Y132.62-Y132.68 and Y132.85-Y132.96 becomes next potential problem.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Trying To Cling To Support From Between Stg0.8699-Stg0.8692

*RES 4: Stg0.8817/18 Mar 19 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8796/98 Mar 30, Mar 27 highs 

*RES 2: Stg0.8775 Hourly congestion area Mar 30-Apr 2

*RES 1: Stg0.8740/50 Hourly resistance, Apr 5-6 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8698 @1033GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8692/99 Apr 10 low, 76.4% Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798

*SUP 2: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8639 6 month bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* The 'Shooting Star' candle close on Mar 27 is still exerting some

influence, as we try to break free of Stg0.8699 support. A low of Stg0.8692

Tuesday, a sustained move lower will aim to test Stg0.8668 again, beneath which

the lower 1% volatility band and the 6 month bear channel projection, between

Stg0.8642-Stg0.8639, protect against a deeper Stg0.8588 fall. Resistance from

Stg0.8740-50, above will encourage but Stg0.8775 tougher higher.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7727-$0.7717 Provides Near Term Defence Area

*RES 4: $0.7860 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7833 2 month falling resistance line

*RES 2: $0.7812 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7643

*RES 1: $0.7783/86 1% volatility band, Mar 22 high

*PRICE: $0.7749 @1033GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7717/27 Hourly base Apr 10, Apr 4 high

*SUP 2: $0.7691/07 Hourly pullback low Apr 9, Mar 30 high

*SUP 3: $0.7670/75 Series of lows Mar 30-Apr 6

*SUP 4: $0.7641/43 Equality fall from $0.7917, Mar 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Has recovered well since last month's fall to $0.7643, just above

the equality fall target at the slightly lower $0.7641 level. Wednesday saw the

rally reach $0.7773 approaching the upper 1% volatility band, at $0.7783 and the

Mar 22 high at $0.7786. Will need to sustain a move through the latter before

thoughts will turn to $0.7812-$0.7833. While support from between

$0.7727-$0.7717 holds, then recent upward momentum remains intact.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Oversold Near Term, $1.2624 Becomes Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2717 Hourly recovery high Apr 9

*RES 3: $1.2674 Initial low Apr 10, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2650 Hourly base Apr 10, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2624 Apr 11 high

*PRICE: $1.2598 @1034GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2544/60 Apr 11 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2486 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2467 Feb 26 low

*SUP 4: $1.2450/56 Feb 16 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*COMMENTARY* The prospect of a head and shoulders top has grown this week,

failure at $1.2815-$1.2820 the initial catalyst. This has subsequently seen

$1.2685-$1.2615 support give way, followed by $1.2593-$1.2584 on Wednesday. Has

found some support from $1.2544, below and not much ahead of an eventual test to

the lower 2% volatility band at $1.2486 today. Has become oversold near term,

resistance from $1.2624, above needed before any real respite is in sight.

GOLD TECHS: Backs Away After Return To Range Top On Wednesday

*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 2016 high

*RES 3: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 2: $1360.6 Hourly high Apr 11

*RES 1: $1353.6 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1345.7 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: $1342.6 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1335.6 Apr 6 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1331.1 Apr 10 low

*SUP 4: $1327.0 Apr 9 low

*COMMENTARY* $1315.6 support was protected by the earlier $1319.7 level last

Friday. The subsequent rise has since moved back above pivotal $1341.3

resistance. This suggested scope to once again investigate the top of the recent

range and indeed we have subsequently seen a move back toward $1366.2 on

Wednesday. As a result, overbought near term and $1342.6-$1335.6, now provides

support. Below $1331.1 would concern again. Resistance from $1353.6-$1360.6.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]