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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correction So Far Holds Above $1.2291-$1.2287 Support
*RES 4: $1.2477 Mar 27 high
*RES 3: $1.2433 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.2415/22 76.4% of $1.2477-$1.2215, Mar 28 high
*RES 1: $1.2360/80 Hourly resistance, Apr 12 high
*PRICE: $1.2336 @0839GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2287/91 Apr 6 high, initial high Apr 9
*SUP 2: $1.2261 Apr 9 low
*SUP 3: $1.2215/27 Apr 6 low, 6 week bull channel base
*SUP 4: $1.2187 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The early part of the week saw the recovery continue, successive
new highs culminating a $1.2397 high on Wednesday. This left us shy of a look at
the stronger $1.2415-$1.2433 area. As a consequence, some overbought conditions
arose and have so far resulted in a move back towards $1.2291-$1.2287 support.
These and the slightly lower $1.2261 level protect against a deeper correction
of gains from last Friday's $1.2215 base. Resistance $1.2360-$1.2380.
CABLE TECHS: $1.4325-$1.4346 Next Target Area After Move Through $1.4279
*RES 4: $1.4417 1.618 swing of $1.4245-$1.3966, 2% vol band
*RES 3: $1.4373 Underside previously broken bull channel
*RES 2: $1.4368 61.8% Fibo of $1.5932-$1.1838
*RES 1: $1.4325/46 Hourly resistance, Jan 25 high
*PRICE: $1.4284 @0900GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4240/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.4221/24 Intraday low, Apr 11 high
*SUP 3: $1.4180 Hourly congestion Apr 10-12
*SUP 4: $1.4145 Apr 12 low
*COMMENTARY* Following yesterday's hold of key $1.4145 support, we have seen the
early Feb highs and upper 1% volatility band at $1.4279, slightly exceeded
today. If this can be sustained, then the next band of resistance comes from
between $1.4325 and the year's previous $1.4346 high. Higher and $1.4368-$1.4373
next, ahead of $1.4417. In the interim, nearest support rises to $1.4250-$1.4240
with the lower $1.4224-$1.4221 area currently of more consequence below.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Approaches Congested Y107.84-Y108.11 Resistance
*RES 4: Y108.28 Jan 26 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y108.04/11 Equality rise from Y105.66, 38.2% Fibo
*RES 2: Y107.91/94 Feb 21 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y107.84 1.618 swing of Y107.01-Y105.66
*PRICE: Y107.58 @0914GMT
*SUP 1: Y107.15/20 Hourly support, broken resistance line
*SUP 2: Y106.85 Hourly congestion lows Apr 6-Apr 11
*SUP 3: Y106.62/65 Apr 9, Apr 10, Apr 11 lows
*SUP 4: Y106.12 Mar 30 low
*COMMENTARY* The Y107.40-Y107.50 area has been breached today, now seeing an
approach to congested resistance from between the swing target at Y107.84 and
the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at Y108.11. Will need to clear the latter before
greater upside potential will follow. As a result, nearest support comes from
Y107.20-Y107.15, the former the level of this year's broken resistance line. The
lower Y106.85 level is however currently of more importance below.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Reaches Into Decent Y132.85-Y132.96 Resistance
*RES 4: Y133.80 Feb 12 high
*RES 3: Y133.23 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95
*RES 2: Y132.96 1.618 swing of Y132.18-Y129.98
*RES 1: Y132.85/90 Equality rise from Y129.98, 1% vol band
*PRICE: Y132.70 @0923GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.10/20 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y131.81 Apr 12 low
*SUP 3: Y131.45/50 Apr 5, Apr 6 highs, now support
*SUP 4: Y131.09 Apr 6 low
*COMMENTARY* The break above the Mar 27 high at Y131.82, added more credence to
the potential for an inverse head and shoulders pattern to have developed over
the last 6 weeks. Next up, now has to deal with an equality rise target and a
swing target, between Y132.85-132.96, which including the upper 1% volatility
band, may prove problematic, at least in the near term. Support rises to
Y132.20-Y132.20 but Y131.81 currently provides the stronger level.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bear Channel Base Under Pressure, 1% Vol Band At Stg0.8624
*RES 4: Stg0.8734/40 Mar 28 low, Apr 11 high
*RES 3: Stg0.8714 Apr 3 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Stg0.8692 Apr 10 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Stg0.8668/70 Mar 22 low, hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8635 @0934GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8624 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: Stg0.8603 May 24 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8588 1.618 swing of Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798
*SUP 4: Stg0.8547 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306
*COMMENTARY* The 'Shooting Star' candle close on Mar 27 is still exerting it's
influence, as we break below the year's previous Stg0.8668 low and today trying
to break free of the 6 month bear channel base projection at Stg0.8638. A low of
Stg0.8629 so far, just above the next significant marker, the lower 1%
volatility band at Stg0.8624. Meanwhile, resistance falls to
Stg0.8668-Stg0.8670, above would allow Stg0.8692-Stg0.8714 respite.
AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Enters Next $0.7800-$0.7812 Target Zone
*RES 4: $0.7873 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $0.7829 2 month falling resistance line
*RES 2: $0.7812 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7643
*RES 1: $0.7800/04 1% volatility band, intraday high
*PRICE: $0.7798 @0943GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7755/65 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $0.7738/39 Apr 11, Apr 12 lows
*SUP 3: $0.7727 Apr 4 high, now support
*SUP 4: $0.7707 Mar 30 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Has recovered well since last month's fall to $0.7643, just above
the equality fall target at the slightly lower $0.7641 level. After incremental
highs over the course of the week, today has seen a challenge to the upper 1%
volatility band at $0.7800 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $0.7812. These
ahead of the 2 month falling resistance at $0.7829. Support from $0.7765-$0.7755
with the $0.7738 level to remain intact, if gains are to continue.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2624 Remains The Bar To Any Recovery Prospects
*RES 4: $1.2717 Hourly recovery high Apr 9
*RES 3: $1.2674 Initial low Apr 10, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2650 Hourly base Apr 10, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2624 Apr 11 high
*PRICE: $1.2564 @0949GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2544/60 Apr 11 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2467 61.8% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.3125
*SUP 3: $1.2456 76.4% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125
*SUP 4: $1.2450 Feb 16 low, 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The prospect of a head and shoulders top has grown this week,
failure at $1.2815-$1.2820 the initial catalyst. This has subsequently seen
$1.2685-$1.2615 support give way, followed by $1.2593-$1.2584 on Wednesday. A
low of $1.2544 so far, below and not much ahead of an eventual test to Fibo
supports between $1.2467-$1.2456 and the lower 2% volatility band which joins
the Feb 16 low at $1.2450 today. Resistance from $1.2624, above would help.
GOLD TECHS: Backs Away After Return To Range Top On Wednesday
*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high
*RES 3: $1360.6 Hourly high Apr 11
*RES 2: $1353.6 Hourly high Apr 10
*RES 1: $1347.6 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1340.9 @0955GMT
*SUP 1: $1331.1 Apr 10 low
*SUP 2: $1327.0 Apr 9 low
*SUP 3: $1324.4 4 week rising support line
*SUP 4: $1319.7 Apr 6 low
*COMMENTARY* $1315.6 support was protected by the earlier $1319.7 level last
Friday. The subsequent rise moved back above pivotal $1341.3 resistance. This
suggested scope to once again investigate the top of the recent range and indeed
subsequently saw a move back toward $1366.2 on Wednesday. As a result,
overbought near term, a low of 1333.8 since. Back below $1331.1 would concern
again and pressure the rising support line. Resistance from $1347.6-$1360.6.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.