MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2055-$1.2064 Can Provide Initial Resistance Now

*RES 4: $1.2139 Apr 30 high

*RES 3: $1.2106 Apr 30 hourly recovery high

*RES 2: $1.2085 Apr 30 hourly recovery highs

*RES 1: $1.2055/64 Apr 27, Apr 30 lows

*PRICE: $1.2005 @08250GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1981/90 May 1 low, 1.618 proj'n target from $1.2415

*SUP 2: $1.1954/61 1.618 swing $1.2155-$1.2477, Nov 27 high  

*SUP 3: $1.1937 61.8% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556

*SUP 4: $1.1912 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's continued decline resulted in a low of $1.1981. Slightly

below the projection target at $1.1990, not unexpected given the exuberance of

recent days. This for the time being leaves us above the next region of support

from between the Nov 27 high at $1.1961 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1.1937. Any lower and the 2% volatility band at $1.1912 can provide a backstop.

Resistance $1.2055-$1.2065 can limit gains, $1.2085-$1.2106 higher.

CABLE TECHS: Continued Fall Has $1.3576-$1.3541 As Next Support Area

*RES 4: $1.3787/93 Hourly recovery high Apr 30, Apr 30 high

*RES 3: $1.3740 Hourly high Apr 30

*RES 2: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3645/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3643 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3576 50% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.4377

*SUP 2: $1.3550 Dec 1 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3541/43 Equality fall from $1.4000, 61.8% Fibo

*SUP 4: $1.3458 Jan 11 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from $1.3581, just above the 50% Fibo retrace level

at $1.3576, before finally relenting to some near term oversold conditions. This

briefly saw a break below the lower 2% volatility band, at $1.3589 by time

today. That said, will need to see a recovery through $1.3645-$1.3665, before

any near term belief will appear and allow a look at $1.3713-$1.3740. Below

$1.3576 and $1.3550-$1.3541 provides next support and protection to $1.3458.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y110.06-Y110.27 Potential After Clearance Y109.61 Resistance

*RES 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y110.48 Feb 2 high

*RES 2: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 1: Y110.06 1% volatility band 

*PRICE: Y109.82 @0845GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.45/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.18 Initial recovery high Apr 27, now support

*SUP 3: Y108.97 Apr 27 low

*SUP 4: Y108.54 Apr 24 low

*COMMENTARY* Finally cleared troublesome Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance on Tuesday,

which now leaves us on course for a look at the upper 1% volatility band at

Y110.06 and potentially the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y110.27. Am aware that

the rally from the Mar 23 low at Y104.63 is beginning to look mature and a cap

below the Nov 27 low at Y110.84 is possible. Meanwhile, support from

Y109.50-Y109.18 but the Apr 27 low at Y108.97 remains key to upside momentum.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Correction Underway As Y131.76 Support Gives Way

*RES 4: Y132.87/90 Initial pullback Apr 24, Apr 25 low

*RES 3: Y132.55 Apr 30 high

*RES 2: Y132.30 Hourly congestion Apr 26-30

*RES 1: Y132.14 May 1 high

*PRICE: Y131.79 @0854GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.57 May 1 low

*SUP 2: Y131.12/22 1% vol band, 50% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49

*SUP 3: Y130.68 61.8% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49

*SUP 4: Y129.99 Apr 2 low, 76.4% of Y128.95-Y133.49

*COMMENTARY* Last Tuesday's Y133.49 high the zenith of the recovery so far,

subsequent rallies failed to trouble it and the loss of Y132.56 support spoiled

the look of recent upside momentum. The next area of interest from between

Y131.82-Y131.76 gave way on Tuesday and opens way for a deeper correction of

gains from the Mar 22 low at Y128.95. Below Y131.57 and this has Y131.22-Y130.68

as next band of support. Y132.14-Y132.30 resistance is the near term problem.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Likely To Encounter Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 Resistance

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8857 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol

*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 1: Stg0.8835 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*PRICE: Stg0.8796 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 May 1 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Support from Stg0.8681 held the pullback last week and Friday's

recovery saw us back to challenging the previously troublesome

Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance. Monday's move higher takes us back into the

upper half of the 6 month bear channel, the Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area likely to

provide the next test to this rally. As a result, nearest support moves up to

Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, back below the latter would caution near term.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7532-$0.7552 The Near Term Bar To Recoveries

*RES 4: $0.7621 Apr 24 high

*RES 3: $0.7585 Apr 27 high

*RES 2: $0.7547/52 May 1 high, Apr 25 low

*RES 1: $0.7532 Apr 27 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7514 @0914GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7473 May 1 low

*SUP 2: $0.7435/40 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $0.7425 2018 weekly bear channel base, 2% vol band

*SUP 4: $0.7373 May 29 2017 low

*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued on Tuesday, breaking beneath the

$0.7510-$0.7502 support area. Below and the longer term 50% Fibo retrace level

at $0.7481 is the latest to come under pressure. In the meantime, nearest

resistance falls to $0.7532 with $0.7547-$0.7552 higher but currently requires a

move back above last Friday's $0.7585 high, before any correction of note is

likely. Lose $0.7473 and $0.7440-$0.7425 is next support.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Key Support Back Under Pressure Today

*RES 4: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528

*RES 3: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs

*RES 2: $1.2914 May 1 high

*RES 1: $1.2877/87 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2825 @0923GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2803/06 Intraday, Apr 30 lows 

*SUP 2: $1.2750 Apr 23 low

*SUP 3: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20

*SUP 4: $1.2676 Apr 19 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from 1.2806 under pressure again today, this

after seeing a break above the recent range highs from $1.2897-$1.2901 on

Tuesday. A peak at $1.2914, falling shy of the anticipated $1.2941-$1.2944 area,

before yielding ground again. A sustained break below $1.2806 will open up

corrective forces of the gains seen from the Apr 17 base at $1.2528, beginning

with $1.2750-$1.2718. Back above $1.2887 would ease near term pressure.

GOLD TECHS: $1307.3 Loss Opens Way To $1302.2-$1301.4 Next

*RES 4: $1336.8 Base of broken 9 week bull channel

*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $1325.0 Apr 30 high

*RES 1: $1315.4 Apr 26 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1310.6 @0932GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low

*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1280.1 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1336.8

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going

yesterday, suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at

$1301.4. In the meantime, $1315.4-$1325.0 presents initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]