MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Break Of $1.1898 Resistance Encouraging, $1.1965-77 Above

*RES 4: $1.2049 38.2% Fibo of $1.2414-$1.1823

*RES 3: $1.2009 May 3 high

*RES 2: $1.1965/77 76.4% of $1.2009-$1.1823, May 7 high

*RES 1: $1.1947 May 10 high

*PRICE: $1.1910 @0757GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1855/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1823 May 9 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.1790 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556

*SUP 4: $1.1738/46 Dec 15 low, 1.618 swing $1.1823-$1.1947

*COMMENTARY* A low of $1.1823 on Wednesday before encountering some oversold

hourly conditions. Initial resistance from the May 7 low at $1.1898 carried some

importance and the move back through here is encouraging. A high of $1.1947 so

far, as we make our way toward the next checkpoint at $1.1965-$1.1977. Ideally

support from between $1.1865-$1.1855 stays intact now, else risk reverts lower

again, $1.1790-$1.1738 the next target area below $1.1823.

CABLE TECHS: Failure Below $1.3630 Resistance Keeps Downside Bias Intact

*RES 4: $1.3667/76 May 2 high, 23.6% Of $1.4377-$1.3460

*RES 3: $1.3618/30 May 10, May 3 highs

*RES 2: $1.3581 Hourly recovery high May 10

*RES 1: $1.3555/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3531 @0800GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3458/60 Jan 11, May 10 lows

*SUP 2: $1.3401 1.618 swing of $1.3484-$1.3618

*SUP 3: $1.3386 61.8% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.4377

*SUP 4: $1.3346 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377

*COMMENTARY* Thursday's rally climaxed at $1.3618, shy of the $1.3630 break

needed to overturn recent downside momentum. The subsequent fall has slipped

back below previous $1.3487-$1.3484 lows, to rest just above the Jan 11 low at

$1.3458. As a result, nearest resistance has fallen to $1.3555-$1.3581 and will

require a move back above the latter, to get upside interest going again. Lose

$1.3458 and the swing target at $1.3401 offers next protection to the downside.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  7 Week Support Line Back Under Examination

*RES 4: Y110.48/53 1% vol band, 1.618 swing Y110.02-Y109.19

*RES 3: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 2: Y110.02/04 May 10, May 2 highs

*RES 1: Y109.80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.38 @0813GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.19/29 Intraday low, 7 week rising support line

*SUP 2: Y108.95 Hourly support

*SUP 3: Y108.54/65 Apr 24, May 4 lows

*SUP 4: Y108.30 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The 7 week rising support line back under examination today, this

and the slightly lower Y108.95 level need to hold to keep recent upside momentum

intact. Again have Y109.80 as nearest resistance level and preventing another

Y110.02-Y110.04 return. Below Y108.95 and focus will again settle on the recent

Y108.65-Y108.54 lows and then the 1% volatility band at Y108.30, as we give back

gains. Above Y110.04 and Fibo resistance from Y110.27 ahead of Y110.48-Y110.53.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Falters Below Key Y130.86-Y130.88 Resistance

*RES 4: Y131.86 61.8% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23

*RES 3: Y131.36 50% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23

*RES 2: Y130.86/88 38.2% of Y133.49-Y129.23, May 4 high

*RES 1: Y130.60/77 Hourly resistance, May 10 high

*PRICE: Y130.33 @0818GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.93/00 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: Y129.56 Initial rally high May 8, now support

*SUP 3: Y129.23/37 May 8 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y128.85/95 2 year bull channel base, Mar 22 low 

*COMMENTARY* A low of Y129.23 on Tuesday, just below the swing target at Y129.44

and protecting against a return to the Mar 22 base at Y128.95 and the 2 year

bull channel base projection at Y128.85. Oversold in the near term as a

consequence, the subsequent rally breaking Y130.31 resistance and making a brave

attempt on the higher Y130.86-Y130.88 area. Above the the latter being key to

any lasting recovery. Meanwhile, support rises to Y130.00-Y129.56.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Renews Acquaintance With Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842 

*RES 4: Stg0.8942 6 month bear channel top

*RES 3: Stg0.8884/86 1% vol band, 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 1: Stg0.8837/42 May 10, May 4 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8810 @0824GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8760/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8728 May 9 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8719 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8681-Stg0.8842

*SUP 4: Stg0.8705/08 61.8% Stg0.8620-Stg0.8642, 1% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain the move back into the top half of the 6 month

bear channel. A high of Stg0.8842 last week, before succumbing to some

corrective pressure. The loss of Stg0.8761 and then Stg0.8742 on Wednesday,

leaving the Stg0.8719 area vulnerable to a test. Meanwhile, back above Stg0.8780

and then Stg0.8815 has improved the outlook again but still has

Stg0.8842-Stg0.8851 in the way of a Stg0.8884-Stg0.8886 rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7561-$0.7565 Now The Next Challenge To This Rise

*RES 4: $0.7655 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7612 50% Fibo of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 2: $0.7580 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $0.7561/65 May 4 high, 38.2% of $0.7813-$0.7412

*PRICE: $0.7551 @0832GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7495 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7465 Hourly congestion May 9-May 10

*SUP 3: $0.7448/49 Hourly basing area May 9

*SUP 4: $0.7412 May 9 low

*COMMENTARY* The key near term resistance from $0.7531 has been broken, swinging

immediate bias higher and for a test to the next region of interest between

$0.7561-$0.7565. Clearance of the latter will reinforce corrective potential,

initially of losses sustained since the $0.7813 high of Apr 19. As a result,

support also on the rise, $0.7495 initially and then backed up by

$0.7465-$0.7448. Only back below the latter will caution.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Downside Risk Remains While Below $1.2800-$1.2815 

*RES 4: $1.2901 Hourly high May 9

*RES 3: $1.2870 Hourly low May 9, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2842 Hourly recovery high May 10

*RES 1: $1.2800/15 Hourly resistance, hourly high May 10

*PRICE: $1.2753 @0843GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2742 May 10 low

*SUP 2: $1.2708/19 61.8% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.2998, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: $1.2697 1.618 swing of $1.2742-$1.2815

*SUP 4: $1.2633/39 Apr 20 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.2998

*COMMENTARY* Key support from between $1.2818-$1.2803 was overcome Thursday,

after the briefest of recoveries to $1.2864 late on Wednesday, helped to remove

near term oversold conditions. A low of $1.2742 on the day, before again some

near term oversold conditions came to the rescue. Resistance falls accordingly,

$1.2800-$1.2815 initially. Back above the latter would spark a correction of

losses from $1.2998. Lose $1.2742 and $1.2719-$1.2697 next.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Finds Support Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4

*RES 4: $1350.4 76.4% Fibo of $1365.4-$1301.7

*RES 3: $1343.5 Base of broken 10 week bull channel

*RES 2: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 1: $1327.2 Apr 27 high

*PRICE: $1320.1 @0853GMT

*SUP 1: $1306.8 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1301.4/1.7 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, May 1 low

*SUP 3: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Last month saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1343.5

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opened the way for a continued fall towards the year's previous $1302.2

low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the meantime, we have seen a bounce

$1327.2 now presents initial resistance, $1332.8 higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]