MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Key Near Term Resistance Located Between $1.1782-$1.1794

*RES 4: $1.1876 Hourly recovery high May 15 

*RES 3: $1.1830 May 22 high

*RES 2: $1.1782/94 6 week falling res line, hourly high May 22

*RES 1: $1.1751/70 May 24 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1717 @0830GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1666/76 1% volatility band, May 23 low

*SUP 2: $1.1647 1.618 swing of $1.1717-$1.1830

*SUP 3: $1.1634 1.618x $1.1838-$1.1717 from $1.1830

*SUP 4: $1.1592 Max 5th wave target in fall from $1.2477

*COMMENTARY* Thursday's rally reached $1.1751, the base of minimum

$1.1755-$1.1770 correction potential. Still decent support showing from between

$1.1676-$1.1666, the latter the level of the lower 1% volatility band today. Any

overshoot can test into the congested $1.1647-$1.1634 area next, although

$1.1592 is a possibility. Above $1.1770 and $1.1782-$1.1794 then becomes

important. The first hint of a recovery would come from a move above the latter.

CABLE TECHS: Some Respite After Decline Retests The Mid December Lows

*RES 4: $1.3528 May 18 high

*RES 3: $1.3487/92 May 4 low, May 22 high 

*RES 2: $1.3443/48 May 23 high, 76.4% of $1.3492-$1.3305  

*RES 1: $1.3422 May 24 high, 61.8% $1.3492-$1.3305

*PRICE: $1.3363 @0838GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3324/30 1% volatility band, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3302/05 Dec 15, Dec 12 and May 23 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3269 Aug 3 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3221/33 Nov 28 low, 1.618 swing $1.3305-$1.3422

*COMMENTARY* Failure to deal with $1.3490-$1.3500 resistance on Tuesday put the

downside under pressure again. With the subsequent loss of $1.3386 support,

Wednesday also saw the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3346 and the swing target

at $1.3329 give way. This sees the mid December lows at $1.3303-$1.3302 as next

protection lower. Resistance from Tuesday's $1.3391 low has been broken but

$1.3422-$1.3448 a tougher area above. Below $1.3330-$1.3324 would concern again.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Loss Of Key Y109.15 Support Remains A Concern

*RES 4: Y110.46 May 15 high, hourly recovery highs May 23

*RES 3: Y110.32/33 Broken bull channel base,hourly high May 23

*RES 2: Y110.00 Hourly congestion May 23

*RES 1: Y109.75/77 Intraday, May 24 highs 

*PRICE: Y109.47 @0849GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.13 Hourly base May 24, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y108.81/95 38.2% of Y104.63-Y111.40, May 24 low

*SUP 3: Y108.46/65 1.618 swing Y108.95-Y109.75, May 4 low

*SUP 4: Y108.02 50% Fibo of Y104.63-Y111.40, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* The appearance of the 'shooting star' candle close on the daily

chart on Monday was the warning and precursor to the subsequent decline, which

broke beneath key Y109.15 support on Thursday. A low so far of Y108.95, before

encountering some near term oversold conditions. In this respect, Y109.77

provides immediate resistance, Y110.00-Y110.33 thereafter. Support Y109.13,

below would caution, Y108.81-Y108.46 potential on loss of Y108.95.

EURO-YEN TECHS: A Continued Fall Has Y127.56-Y127.12 Potential

*RES 4: Y129.54 2 year bull channel base, now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.23 May 8 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y128.88/06 May 24 high, recovery high May 23

*RES 1: Y128.60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y128.42 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.72 May 24 low

*SUP 2: Y127.34/56 2% volatility band, Aug 18 low

*SUP 3: Y127.12 Equality fall from Y131.38 to Y133.49-Y129.23

*SUP 4: Y126.18 50% Fibo of Y114.85-Y137.51

*COMMENTARY* Unable to move through Y131.36-Y131.38 resistance on Tuesday and

has subsequently paid the price. The resultant fall has lost support from the 2

year bull channel base at Y129.54 and then the key Y129.23-Y128.85 area. A low

of Y127.72 so far, as we head into near term oversold territory. In this regard,

look to Y128.60 for initial resistance, Y128.88-Y129.06 above. Below Y127.72 and

next targets are set between Y127.56 and Y127.12.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Remains Marooned In Midst Of Six Month Channel

*RES 4: Stg0.8842/48 May 4 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8835 May 10 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8814/18 76.4% of Stg0.8842-Stg0.8713, May 15 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8795/97 May 11 low, May 23 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8770 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8724/38 May 18, May 23, May 24 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8713 May 17 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8705 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842

*SUP 4: Stg0.8673/81 1% volatility band, Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8713 last week. Once again keeping us from

a test to the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at the slightly lower Stg0.8705 level.

The subsequent recovery, now sees earlier support from Stg0.8738-Stg0.8724 as

protecting against a downside return. Meanwhile, having moved through the May 16

high at Stg0.8783, the focus returns to the Stg0.8795-Stg0.8797 area, where

better questions are asked of this rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7606-$0.7618 Now The Key To Direction Here

*RES 4: $0.7660 61.8% Fibo of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 3: $0.7641/43 1.618 swing $0.7567-$0.7447, Mar 29 low

*RES 2: $0.7618 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $0.7606/12 May 22 high, 50% $0.7813-$0.7412

*PRICE: $0.7588 @0911GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7550/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7515/23 Congestion area May 17-21, May 23 low

*SUP 3: $0.7503 May 21 low

*SUP 4: $0.7485/88 76.4% of $0.7447-$0.7606, May 18 low

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's rally failed to deal with resistance from the upper 1%

volatility band, shy of the 50% Fibo retrace level at $0.7612. A small 'Doji'

candle close on Tuesday has seen a setback into $0.7525-$0.7515 support. This

now the protection against a further $0.7503-$0.7485 fall. Meanwhile resistance

from Wednesday's $0.7583 high has been breached today, the $0.7606-$0.7618 area

again the near term barrier to gains.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Heads Toward Key $1.2925-$1.2935 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3038 1.618 swing of $1.2925-$1.2743

*RES 3: $1.2998 May 8 high

*RES 2: $1.2967 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2925/35 May 15 high, 76.4% of $1.2998-$1.2729

*PRICE: $1.2893 @0914GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2875/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2845 Hourly congestion area May 23-24

*SUP 3: $1.2826 Hourly base May 23

*SUP 4: $1.2812 May 23 low

*COMMENTARY* Rallies over the last week or so have been held back by

$1.2925-$1.2935 resistance. It is through the latter that is still required

before the upside will find the basis for any renewed strength. Meanwhile,

congested resistance between $1.2890-1.2916 has been given a run for its money

on Thursday and as a result, support rises to $1.2885-$1.2845. Loss of the

latter would concern again and pressure $1.2826-$1.2812.

GOLD TECHS: $1298.9-$1301.7 Break Allows Near Term Respite

*RES 4: $1332.8 Apr 13 low, Apr 24 high

*RES 3: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 2: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 1: $1308.9/9.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1305.3 @0920GMT

*SUP 1: $1296.4 May 22 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 3: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 4: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area on Monday which

raised some concerns. This the rising support line from the December 2016 lows

and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this

can be sustained, then there is not much to stop an eventual $1267.2,  fall. In

the meantime, the move back through $1298.9-$1301.7 allows some respite,

$1308.9-$1314.9 next resistance higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]