MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1608-$1.1612 In The Way Of Further Gains At Present

*RES 4: $1.1711 6 week falling resistance line

*RES 3: $1.1676 May 23 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1640/46 May 29 high, May 25 low

*RES 1: $1.1608/12 May 28 low, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1589 @0830GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1540/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1510 May 29 low

*SUP 3: $1.1448/65 50% $1.0340-$1.2556, 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1405 Equality fall from $1.1996 to $1.2414-$1.1823

*COMMENTARY* Found a base on Tuesday at $1.1510 just below hourly support at the

time from $1.1515. The subsequent recovery is helping to reduce oversold

conditions, $1.1608-$1.1612 the current barrier to gains. As a result, support

rises to $1.1550-$1.1540, ahead of that $1.1510. Lower and the $1.1465-$1.1448

region is next, with the equality fall target at $1.1405 below. Above $1.1612

and $1.1640-$1.1646 then in the way of a further $1.1676-$1.1711 rise.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Falters Into Key $1.3299-$1.3305 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3380 Hourly congestion May 23-25

*RES 3: $1.3342 May 28 high

*RES 2: $1.3326 May 29 high 

*RES 1: $1.3299/05 Hourly high May 29, May 23 low

*PRICE: $1.3258 @0845GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3225 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3204 May 29 low

*SUP 3: $1.3152 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377

*SUP 4: $1.3108 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Lower again Tuesday, support now located between $1.3225 and then

that day's $1.3204 low. Below and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3152 then

protects the lower 2% volatility band, at $1.3108 by time today. Resistance

currently from between yesterday's $1.3299 recovery high and last Wednesday's

$1.3305 base. Continued failure below here will see pressure return. Through

$1.3305 and congested $1.3326-$1.3380 then the constraint to further gains.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recoveries Will Be Benign While Held Below Y109.47

*RES 4: Y109.83 May 25 high

*RES 3: Y109.47 Hourly recovery high May 28

*RES 2: Y109.11/23 Hourly recovery high May 29, May 28 low

*RES 1: Y108.95 May 24 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y108.65 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.30/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.02/11 50% Fibo Y104.63-Y111.40, May 29 low

*SUP 3: Y107.67/78 2% volatility band, Apr 13 high

*SUP 4: Y107.39 Equality fall from Y109.83 to Y111.40-Y108.96

*COMMENTARY* Still suffering from the appearance of a 'shooting star' candle

close on the daily chart last Monday, which resulted in a break beneath key

Y109.15 support last Thursday. Yesterday we lost further support from Y108.95,

resulting in a fall towards the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y108.02. Resistance

now from Y108.95-Y109.23, with Y109.47 key above. Support Y108.40-Y108.30 but

lose Y108.02 and Y107.67-Y107.39 possible.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y126.45-Y126.55 The Barrier To Further Recovery Efforts

*RES 4: Y127.72 May 24 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y127.15 May 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y126.82 May 28 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y126.45/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y125.99 @0917GMT

*SUP 1: Y125.55/60 4 Hourly highs May 29-30, now support

*SUP 2: Y124.98/03 4 month bear channel base, hourly support

*SUP 3: Y124.62/65 May 29 low, Jun 20 high 

*SUP 4: Y124.10 Dec 12 2016 high, now support 

*COMMENTARY* The decline extended again Tuesday a low of Y124.62 before

recovering. This saw a move below the lower 2% volatility band, at Y126.00

today, the first time this band has been exceeded, on either side, since Nov

2016. Always cautious when this happens as usually never long lasting. Support

currently Y125.60-Y125.55 and then more importantly Y125.03-Y124.98. Loss will

trigger a further Y124.10-Y123.51 fall. Back Above Y126.55 would ease pressure.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Finally Some Movement Within The Well Established Channel

*RES 4: Stg0.8810 May 8 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8797 May 23 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8775 Hourly highs May 22-25

*RES 1: Stg0.8760 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8749 @0924GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8673 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842

*SUP 4: Stg0.8657/61 1% vol band, swing Stg0.8713-Stg0.8797

*COMMENTARY* Finally some movement seen yesterday, albeit still within the well

worn range. The move lower through Stg0.8713 finally testing the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at Stg0.8705 and posting a Stg0.8697 low. A continued move lower

would see the Apr 26 low at Stg0.8681 come back into view, ahead of the next

Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8673. Meanwhile, resistance comes from Stg0.8760 and

then the congested Stg0.8775 area but Stg0.8797-Stg0.8810 remains key.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7542-$0.7575 The Resistance To Any Real Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: $0.7606/12 May 22 high, 50% of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 3: $0.7590 May 25 high

*RES 2: $0.7570/75 Congestion area May 23-28

*RES 1: $0.7542/55 May 25 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7535 @0935GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7505 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7490 Intraday hourly congestion 

*SUP 3: $0.7469/76 1% volatility band, May 29 low

*SUP 4: $0.7447 May 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Following the small 'Doji' candle close last Tuesday we have seen a

continued fall from a high of $0.7606, which reached $0.7476 yesterday. This

slightly below the preferred $0.7488-$0.7485 support. The subsequent bounce has

been impressive but has yet to deal with resistance set between $0.7542-$0.7575.

Will need back above the latter before near term bias can swing back in favour

of the topside. Meanwhile, $0.7505-$0.7490 protects the downside.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.3047-$1.3080 Now The Bar To A $1.3125 Return

*RES 4: $1.3164 1.618 swing of $1.2998-$1.2729, 2% vol band 

*RES 3: $1.3125 Mar 19 high, now support

*RES 2: $1.3080 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1.3047 May 29 high

*PRICE: $1.2998 @0944GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2975/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2955/60 Hourly basing area May 25

*SUP 3: $1.2916/25 May 23, May 15 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2860 Congestion lows since Mid May

*COMMENTARY* The break back through $1.2925-$1.2935 resistance gave the upside

renewed impetus. Latterly seeing a move through the upper 1% volatility band, at

$1.3030 by time today. A high of $1.3047 so far, just above the swing target at

$1.3038. Any higher and $1.3080 now looks to be the brake to a $1.3125 return.

Support from between $1.2985-$1.2955, will need to lose the latter before the

recent upward momentum loses any of it's recent shine. 

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Has $1308.9-$1309.3 Resistance To Consider

*RES 4: $1332.8 Apr 13 low, Apr 24 high

*RES 3: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 2: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 1: $1308.9/9.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1299.2 @0945GMT

*SUP 1: $1292.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 3: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 4: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last week which

raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop

an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, the move back through $1298.9-$1301.7

allows some respite, $1308.9-$1314.9 next resistance higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]