Trial now
USDCAD TECHS

Heading North

GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK

Modi, AMLO Top Major Economy Leader Poll, Macron Last

AUDUSD TECHS

Under Pressure

EURJPY TECHS

Trend Condition Remains Bearish

By Les Castell
     
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Still Looks Like A 4th Wave Recovery
*RES 4: $1.1661 38.2% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1543
*RES 3: $1.1645 Intraday high
*RES 2: $1.1620 Initial intraday pullback low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1575/85 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1536 @0927GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1510 May 29 low
*SUP 2: $1.1480 1.618 swing $1.1543-$1.1645
*SUP 3: $1.1465 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556
*COMMENTARY* A combination of the Jun 7 bearish 'Shooting Star' candle close and
last week the upper 1% volatility band, conspired to send us down and back
towards the year's previous $1.1510 low. The current consolidation looks like a
4th wave, ahead of another push lower, which on a loss of $1.1510 would target
$1.1480-$1.1448 next. Meanwhile, $1.1575-$1.1620 provides resistance, above
$1.1645 would allow a higher correction of losses from $1.1840-$1.1852.
     
CABLE TECHS: $1.3157-$1.3152 Next Targets After Seeing Fresh Lows
*RES 4: $1.3299/07 Jun 13 low, Jun 15 high
*RES 3: $1.3273 Intraday high
*RES 2: $1.3245 Hourly congestion Jun 18
*RES 1: $1.3211 Jun 15 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3173 @0944GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3152/57 76.4% $1.2774-$1.4377,swing $1.3211-$1.3299
*SUP 2: $1.3107 50% Fibo of $1.1838-$1.4377
*SUP 3: $1.3095 Hourly support
*SUP 4: $1.3067 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Last Thursday's recovery to $1.3447 was unable to remove the threat
of the Jun 7 'Doji' bearish candle close. As a result, we saw a sharp fall back
toward the May 29 low at $1.3204. The interim recovery has been unable to better
$1.3299 and then $1.3273, leaving the downside once again vulnerable. Today's
loss of $1.3204 sees $1.3157-$1.3152 next ahead of the 50% Fibo at $1.3107.
Resistance from $1.3211-$1.3245 stands in the way of any near term bounce.
     
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Falters On Approach To The Y110.93 Swing Target
*RES 4: Y111.36/40 Equality rise from Y109.20, May 21 high
*RES 3: Y110.91/93 Jun 15 high, 1.618 swing Y110.27-Y109.20
*RES 2: Y110.62 Jun 18 high
*RES 1: Y110.20/30 1% vol, hourly resistance, Jun 18 low
*PRICE: Y109.68 @0834GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.51/60 50% Y108.11-Y110.91, 76.4% Y109.20-Y110.91
*SUP 2: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low
*SUP 3: Y109.05 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y108.77 76.4% Fibo of Y108.11-Y110.91
*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a rise to Y110.91, just shy of the swing target at
Y110.93, before suffering a setback. The subsequent loss of Y110.15 and
especially Y109.85 today, sees Y109.60-Y109.51 as the protection against a
Y109.20-Y109.18 return, where next questions would be asked of direction.
Resistance comes initially from between Y110.20-Y110.30 but back above Monday's
Y110.62 high now needed for impact.
     
EURO-YEN TECHS: Sharp Fall Continues As Y127.21-Y126.81 Support Gives Way
*RES 4: Y128.52 Jun 18 high
*RES 3: Y128.05/10 Congestion area Jun 15-18
*RES 2: Y127.70/81 Jun 15, Jun 18 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: Y127.35 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y126.83 @0847GMT
*SUP 1: Y126.33 2% volatility band
*SUP 2: Y125.97 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.35
*SUP 3: Y125.86 Equality fall from Y128.52 to Y130.36-Y127.70
*SUP 4: Y124.98 May 30 low
*COMMENTARY* Y127.80-Y127.70 support has been lost today leading to further
breaks below next Y127.21-Y126.81 support levels. Currently not much showing
until the lower 2% volatility band at Y126.33, which in turn protects against a
further Y125.97-Y125.86 fall, where stronger support is anticipated to
materialise. In the meantime, Y127.35 provides resistance, those former
Y127.70-Y127.81 lows a stronger barrier above.
     
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Once Again In The Middle Of The Well Travelled Range
*RES 4: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs
*RES 3: Stg0.8832 Jun 11, Jun 12 highs
*RES 2: Stg0.8790/00 Hourly highs/lows Jun 12-13
*RES 1: Stg0.8782 Jun 18 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8762 @0852GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8730/35 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8717 Jun 15 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8697 May 29 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681/85 Apr 26 low, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Last week once again faltered on the approach to the resistance of
note between Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. Saw a high of Stg0.8832 but the subsequent
pullback from there has been relatively swift, with Stg0.8780-Stg0.8750 support
giving way and allowing a dip back to and slightly below the recent Stg0.8721-24
lows. Near term Stg0.8790-Stg0.8800 now provides resistance to any recovery,
Stg0.8697-Stg0.8681 next on a break below Stg0.8730-Stg0.8717.
     
AUSSIE TECHS: Loss Of $0.7412-$0.7390 Support Opens Door To $0.7333-$0.7327
*RES 4: $0.7529 Jun 13 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7481 Jun 15 high
*RES 2: $0.7428/30 Intraday high, hourly resistance
*RES 1: $0.7412 May 9 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7368 @0907GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7355 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $0.7327/33 61.8% of $0.6827-$0.8136, May 9 2017 low
*SUP 3: $0.7269 2018 bear channel base projection
*SUP 4: $0.7248 1.618 swing of $0.7412-$0.7677
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall today, losing support from the May 9 low at
$0.7412 and then the 76.4% Fibo at $0.7390. A low of $0.7355 so far, as we head
towards the next area of support between the May 9 2017 low at $0.7333 and the
longer term Fibo retrace level at $0.7327. These currently protecting against a
deeper $0.7269-$0.7248 fall. In the interim, $0.7412-$0.7430 provides a near
term bar to any attempt at a recovery.
     
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Continued Rise Nears 9 Month Bull Channel Top
*RES 4: $1.3377/85 50% $1.4692-$1.2061, 76.4% $1.3794-$1.2061
*RES 3: $1.3348 Jun 21 high
*RES 2: $1.3295 2% volatility band 
*RES 1: $1.3261 9 month bull channel projection
*PRICE: $1.3236 @0919GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3180/90 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3160 Jun 18 low
*SUP 3: $1.3110/20 Hourly basing area Jun 14-15
*SUP 4: $1.3052 Jun 13 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* After holding important near term support from above
$1.2950-$1.2921, last Thursday saw a sharp recovery. In turn, this has since
surpassed, $1.3105, $1.3125 and $1.3199 resistance. A high of $1.3251 so far, as
we near the 9 month bull channel top projection at $1.3261. Any higher and the
upper 2% volatility band is at $1.3295 today. In the meantime, any setbacks
should be held between $1.3190-$1.3160, else caution is advised.
     
GOLD TECHS: Fresh Fall Underway After $1309.3 Blocks Gains
*RES 4: $1309.3 61.8% Fibo of $1326.0-$1282.2, Jun 14 high
*RES 3: $1305.9 Hourly high Jun 13
*RES 2: $1297.3 Initial low Jun 15, now resistance
*RES 1: $1289.3 Jun 1 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1278.9 @0920GMT
*SUP 1: $1273.5 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 3: $1265.4 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1309.3
*SUP 4: $1262.3 Equality fall from $1326.0 to $1365.4-$1301.7
*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month
which raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the
December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's
$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and there is not much to stop an eventual
$1267.2-$1262.3 fall. In the meantime, $1309.3 resistance has blocked gains and
started a fresh fall below $1282.2 support. Look to $1273.5 for interim support.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]