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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Continues Beneath $1.1620-$1.1645
*RES 4: $1.1688 Hourly high Jun 14
*RES 3: $1.1645 Jun 19 high
*RES 2: $1.1620 Initial pullback low Jun 19, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1596 Hourly recovery high Jun 19
*PRICE: $1.1559 @0815GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1510/31 May 29, Jun 19 lows
*SUP 2: $1.1480 1.618 swing $1.1543-$1.1645
*SUP 3: $1.1455 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556
*COMMENTARY* A combination of the Jun 7 bearish 'Shooting Star' candle close and
last week the upper 1% volatility band, have conspired to send us down and back
towards the year's previous $1.1510 low. The current consolidation looks like a
4th wave, potentially ahead of another push lower, below $1.1510 would target
$1.1480-$1.1448 next. Meanwhile, $1.1596-$1.1620 provides resistance, above
$1.1645 would allow a higher correction of losses from $1.1840-$1.1852.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3128-$1.3107 Support After $1.3152 Wobbles
*RES 4: $1.3299/07 Jun 13 low, Jun 15 high
*RES 3: $1.3273 Jun 19 high
*RES 2: $1.3245 Hourly congestion Jun 18
*RES 1: $1.3211 Jun 15 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3154 @0830GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3145/52 Intraday low, 76.4% of $1.2774-$1.4377
*SUP 2: $1.3128 1.618 swing of $1.3151-$1.3188
*SUP 3: $1.3107 50% Fibo of $1.1838-$1.4377
*SUP 4: $1.3091 6 week bear channel base projection
*COMMENTARY* A low of $1.3145 so far, just below the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at
$1.3152. Possible that we can squeeze another $1.3128-$1.3107 fall but beginning
to look like we are close to the base of a 5th wave in the fall from the month's
$1.3473 high. That said, a loss of the slightly lower $1.3091 level would have
us back to the Oct 6 low at $1.3027. Resistance remains from $1.3211-$1.3245,
needing back above $1.3273 to unleash any real upside potential.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fall So Far Caught By Y109.60-Y109.51 Support
*RES 4: Y111.36/40 Equality rise from Y109.20, May 21 high
*RES 3: Y110.91/93 Jun 15 high, 1.618 swing Y110.27-Y109.20
*RES 2: Y110.62 Jun 18 high
*RES 1: Y110.30/38 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y110.17 @0835GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.51/60 50% Y108.11-Y110.91, 76.4% Y109.20-Y110.91
*SUP 2: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low
*SUP 3: Y109.09 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y108.77 76.4% Fibo of Y108.11-Y110.91
*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a rise to Y110.91, just shy of the swing target at
Y110.93, before suffering a setback. The subsequent loss of Y110.15 and
especially Y109.85 yesterday, sees Y109.60-Y109.51 as the protection against a
Y109.20-Y109.18 return, where next questions would be asked of direction.
Resistance comes initially from between Y110.30-Y110.38 but back above Monday's
Y110.62 high now needed for impact.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y127.70-Y128.10 Keeps Interest Lower At Present
*RES 4: Y128.95 Hourly high Jun 14
*RES 3: Y128.52 Jun 18 high
*RES 2: Y128.05/10 Congestion area Jun 15-18
*RES 1: Y127.70/81 Jun 15, Jun 18 lows, now resistance
*PRICE: Y127.36 @0845GMT
*SUP 1: Y126.64 Jun 19 low
*SUP 2: Y126.17 2% volatility band
*SUP 3: Y125.97 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.35
*SUP 4: Y125.86 Equality fall from Y128.52 to Y130.36-Y127.70
*COMMENTARY* Found support from Y126.64 on Tuesday, thus so far protecting
against a deeper fall into the congested Y126.17-Y125.86 area. That said, the
subsequent recovery has faltered into initial Y127.70-Y127.81 resistance. Will
need the comfort of a move back above here and then the slightly higher
Y128.05-Y128.10 region, before the belief in the upside will reappear. Below
Y125.86 and not much then ahead of the year's Y124.62 low.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 The Near Term Resistance Within Range
*RES 4: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs
*RES 3: Stg0.8832 Jun 11, Jun 12 highs
*RES 2: Stg0.8810 Jun 1 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717
*RES 1: Stg0.8800 Intraday high
*PRICE: Stg0.8788 @0850GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8730/35 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8717 Jun 15 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8697 May 29 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681/85 Apr 26 low, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Last week once again faltered on the approach to the resistance of
note between Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. Saw a high of Stg0.8832 but the subsequent
pullback from there has been relatively swift, with Stg0.8780-Stg0.8750 support
giving way and allowing a dip back to and slightly below the recent Stg0.8721-24
lows. Near term Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 now provides resistance to any recovery,
Stg0.8697-Stg0.8681 next on a break below Stg0.8730-Stg0.8717.
AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7412-$0.7430 Needed Before Near Term Respite Seen
*RES 4: $0.7529 Jun 13 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7481 Jun 15 high
*RES 2: $0.7428/30 Jun 19 high, hourly resistance
*RES 1: $0.7412 May 9 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7384 @0859GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7347/55 Jun 19 low, 2% volatility band
*SUP 2: $0.7327/33 61.8% of $0.6827-$0.8136, May 9 2017 low
*SUP 3: $0.7264 2018 bear channel base projection
*SUP 4: $0.7248 1.618 swing of $0.7412-$0.7677
*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's fall to $0.7347 duelling with the lower 2% volatility
band, at $0.7355 by time today. Always cautious when this band is breached, as
historically this is never long lived. Any lower and the long term 61.8% Fibo
retrace at $0.7327 is the protection against a further $0.7264-$0.7248 fall.
Meanwhile, $0.7412-$0.7430 provides resistance to any better recovery and
correction of losses from the Jun 6 high at $0.7677.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Continued Rise Breaks Through 9 Month Bull Channel Top
*RES 4: $1.3377/85 50% $1.4692-$1.2061, 76.4% $1.3794-$1.2061
*RES 3: $1.3364 2% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.3348 Jun 21 high
*RES 1: $1.3311 Intraday high
*PRICE: $1.3289 @0911GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3240/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3192/10 Hourly base Jun 18, Jun 15 high
*SUP 3: $1.3159 Jun 18 low
*SUP 4: $1.3121 Hourly low Jun 15
*COMMENTARY* The hold of key $1.2950 support last week has produced a
significant recovery, which yesterday broke above the top of the 9 month bull
channel, at $1.3247 by time today. A high of $1.3311 seen so far, as we approach
the upper 2% volatility band at $1.3364 and then dual Fibo resistance from
between $1.3377-$1.3385. As a consequence, support rises to $1.3250-$1.3240 but
it is the slightly lower $1.3210-$1.3192 area that is currently more important.
GOLD TECHS: Fall Moves Toward Next $1267.2-$1262.3 Target Zone
*RES 4: $1303.5 Jun 7 high
*RES 3: $1294.5 Congestion area Jun 5-Jun 13
*RES 2: $1289.3 Jun 1 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1284.1 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1272.3 @0914GMT
*SUP 1: $1270.5 Jun 19 low
*SUP 2: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 3: $1265.4 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1309.3
*SUP 4: $1262.3 Equality fall from $1326.0 to $1365.4-$1301.7
*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month
which raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the
December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's
$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and there is not much to stop an eventual
$1267.2-$1262.3 fall. In the meantime, $1309.3 resistance has blocked gains and
started a fresh fall. Resistance $1284.1-$1294.5, $1303.5 more important higher.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.