MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: No Change As Consolidation Continues Beneath $1.1620-$1.1645

*RES 4: $1.1688 Hourly high Jun 14

*RES 3: $1.1645 Jun 19 high

*RES 2: $1.1620 Initial pullback low Jun 19, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1600/05 Jun 20 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1549 @0819GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1510/31 May 29, Jun 19 lows

*SUP 2: $1.1480 1.618 swing $1.1543-$1.1645

*SUP 3: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556

*SUP 4: $1.1428 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* A combination of the Jun 7 bearish 'Shooting Star' candle close and

last week the upper 1% volatility band, have conspired to send us down and back

towards the year's previous $1.1510 low. The current consolidation looks like a

4th wave, potentially ahead of another push lower, below $1.1510 would target

$1.1480-$1.1448 next. Meanwhile, $1.1600-$1.1620 provides resistance, above

$1.1645 would allow a higher correction of losses from $1.1840-$1.1852.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3185-$1.3226 Now The Resistance To Any Recovery

*RES 4: $1.3299/07 Jun 15 high, Jun 13 low

*RES 3: $1.3245/55 Congestion Jun 15-18

*RES 2: $1.3218/26 Jun 20 high, Jun 18 low

*RES 1: $1.3185/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3119 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3100/07 Swing $1.3145-$1.3218, 50% $1.1838-$1.4377

*SUP 2: $1.3084 6 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: $1.3038 1.618 swing of $1.3204-$1.3473

*SUP 4: $1.3027 Oct 6 low

*COMMENTARY* The 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3152 has given way now, allowing

the possibility of a $1.3107-$1.31 fall next. Still looks like we are close to

the base of a 5th wave in the fall from the month's $1.3473 high. That said, a

loss of the slightly lower $1.3084 level would have us back toward $1.3038 and

the Oct 6 low at $1.3027. Resistance from $1.3185-$1.3218 but back above

$1.3218-$1.3226 would be enough to unleash some real upside potential.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Recovery Needs Sustained Break Above Y110.62

*RES 4: Y111.75 1.618 swing of Y10.91-Y109.55

*RES 3: Y111.36/40 Equality rise from Y109.20, May 21 high

*RES 2: Y110.91/93 Jun 15 high, 1.618 swing Y110.27-Y109.20

*RES 1: Y110.76 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y110.46 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.85/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.51/55 50% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 19 low

*SUP 3: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low

*SUP 4: Y108.77 76.4% of Y108.11-Y110.91

*COMMENTARY* Last Friday saw a rise to Y110.91, just shy of the swing target at

Y110.93, before suffering a setback. The subsequent loss of Y110.15 and

especially Y109.85 saw Y109.60-Y109.51 as the protection against a

Y109.20-Y109.18 return, where next questions would be asked of direction.

Meanwhile a recovery has slightly breached Monday's Y110.62 high, a sustained

break now needed for impact. Support rises to Y109.95-Y109.85.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y127.70-Y128.10 Still Keeps Interest Lower At Present

*RES 4: Y128.95 Hourly high Jun 14

*RES 3: Y128.52 Jun 18 high

*RES 2: Y128.04/10 Intraday high, congestion area Jun 15-18

*RES 1: Y127.70/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y127.09 @0914GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y126.64 Jun 19 low

*SUP 3: Y125.97 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.35, 2% vol band

*SUP 4: Y125.86 Equality fall from Y128.52 to Y130.36-Y127.70

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Y126.64 on Tuesday, thus so far protecting

against a deeper fall into the congested Y125.97-Y125.86 area. That said, the

subsequent recovery has faltered into Y128.05-Y128.10 resistance. Will need the

comfort of a move back above here, before any belief in the upside will

reappear. Support now from Y126.95, below Y125.86 and not much then ahead of the

year's Y124.62 low.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 The Near Term Resistance Within Range

*RES 4: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8832 Jun 11, Jun 12 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8810 Jun 1 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717

*RES 1: Stg0.8800 Jun 20 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8784 @0917GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8730/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8717 Jun 15 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681/88 Apr 26 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week once again faltered on the approach to the resistance of

note between Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. Saw a high of Stg0.8832 but the subsequent

pullback from there has been relatively swift, with Stg0.8780-Stg0.8750 support

giving way and allowing a dip back to and slightly below the recent Stg0.8721-24

lows. Near term Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 now provides resistance to any recovery,

Stg0.8697-Stg0.8681 next on a break below Stg0.8730-Stg0.8717.

AUSSIE TECHS: Key Support Between $0.7333-$0.7299 Today

*RES 4: $0.7529 Jun 13 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7476/81 May 29 low, Jun 15 high

*RES 2: $0.7425 Jun 20 high

*RES 1: $0.7395/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7361 @0925GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7327/33 61.8% of $0.6827-$0.8136, May 9 2017 low

*SUP 2: $0.7299 1.618 swing of $0.7347-$0.7425

*SUP 3: $0.7259 2018 bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: $0.7248 1.618 swing of $0.7412-$0.7677

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's fall to $0.7347 duelling with the lower 2% volatility

band, which has dropped to $0.7328 today, to join with support from the long

term 61.8% Fibo retrace at $0.7327. This is the protection against a further

$0.7299-$0.7248 fall. Always cautious if the 2% band is exceeded, as

historically this is never long lived. Meanwhile, $0.7395-$0.7425 provides

resistance to any better correction of losses from the Jun 6 high at $0.7677.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Now Approaching $1.3348-$1.3385 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3494 1.618 swing of $1.3125-$1.2528

*RES 3: $1.3401 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3377/85 50% $1.4692-$1.2061, 76.4% $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 1: $1.3348 Jun 21 2017 high

*PRICE: $1.3325 @0938GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3265/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3238 Jun 18 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3192 Hourly base Jun 18 

*SUP 4: $1.3159 Jun 18 low

*COMMENTARY* The hold of key $1.2950 support last week has produced a

significant recovery, which has broken above the top of the 9 month bull

channel, at $1.3249 by time today. We now approach the Jun 2017 high at $1.3348

and then dual Fibo resistance from between $1.3377-$1.3385. As a consequence,

support rises to $1.3275-$1.3238 but it is the slightly lower $1.3192 area that

is currently more important. Above $1.3385 the 2% volatility band is at $1.3401.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Moves Slightly Below Next $1267.2-$1262.3 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1289.3 Jun 1 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1275.4 Jun 15 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1271.6 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1263.6 @0949GMT

*SUP 1: $1261.9 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1254.2 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 4: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2

*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month

which raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and we have now seen a $1267.2-$1262.3 fall. In fact

this has been slightly exceeded and risk is for a test to the 3 month channel

base at $1254.2 next. Resistance $1271.6-$1275.4, $1282.2 more important higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]