MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1675-$1.1680 In Way Of A Higher $1.1721-$1.1730 Rise

*RES 4: $1.1757/71 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508

*RES 3: $1.1730 1.618 swing of $1.1645-$1.1508

*RES 2: $1.1721/25 61.8% of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 13 low

*RES 1: $1.1675/80 Jun 22 high, 50% of $1.1852-$1.1508

*PRICE: $1.1635 @0728GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1590/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1531/38 Jun 19, Jun 20 lows

*SUP 3: $1.1508/10 Jun 21, May 29 lows

*SUP 4: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556

*COMMENTARY* The bearish 'Shooting Star' candle close and the upper 1%

volatility band, conspired to send us down last week towards and marginally

below the year's previous $1.1510 low. Friday's subsequent recovery has now

broken through $1.1620-$1.1645 resistance. This sees $1.1680-$1.1730 as the next

upside target area, as we correct recent losses from $1.1852. Support from

$1.1600-$1.1590 but back below $1.1538-$1.1531 would concern at this stage.

CABLE TECHS: Correction Falters Ahead Of The 61.8% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1.3385 76.4% Fibo of $1.3473-$1.3102

*RES 3: $1.3331 61.8% Fibo of $1.3473-$1.3102

*RES 2: $1.3315 Jun 22 high

*RES 1: $1.3280/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3241 @0735GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3200/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3180/85 Congestion area Jun 19-20

*SUP 3: $1.3145/51 Jun 20, Jun 19 lows

*SUP 4: $1.3102/07 Jun 21 low, 50% of $1.1838-$1.4377

*COMMENTARY* A move into $1.3107-$1.3100 support seen Thursday and as intimated,

we were close to the base of a 5th wave in the fall from the month's $1.3473

high. The subsequent move through $1.3218-$1.3226 has given the impetus to

launch this correction. A high of $1.3315 so far, just below the 61.8% retrace

level at $1.3331, as we reach near term overbought conditions. Support from

$1.3210-$1.3180 but $1.3151-$1.3145 of more consequence below.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Correction Continues With Loss Of Y109.80-Y109.55 Support

*RES 4: Y110.45 Jun 20 high

*RES 3: Y110.22 Jun 22 high

*RES 2: Y110.05/10 Hourly highs Jun 22

*RES 1: Y109.70/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.49 @0750GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low

*SUP 2: Y109.09 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y108.77/80 76.4% Y108.11-Y110.91,swing Y109.55-Y110.76

*SUP 4: Y108.11 May 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to improve on the Y110.91 high seen on Jun 15 and has

gradually been paying the price since. Today's break below Y109.80-Y109.55 has

minor support from Y109.30 as protecting against a further Y109.20-Y109.09 fall,

as gains from the May 29 low at Y108.11 begin to unwind. In the meantime,

Y109.70-Y109.80 provides immediate resistance, the Y110.05-Y110.22 area of more

consequence higher. Below Y109.09 and Y108.80-Y108.77 becomes important.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Key Near Term Support Situated Between Y127.09-Y126.99

*RES 4: Y128.60 Jun 22 high

*RES 3: Y128.33 Hourly recovery high Jun 22

*RES 2: Y128.05/10 Congestion area Jun 22

*RES 1: Y127.75/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y127.71 @0808GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.99/09 1% vol band, Jun 21, Jun 20 lows

*SUP 2: Y126.64 Jun 19 low

*SUP 3: Y125.97 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.36

*SUP 4: Y125.71 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from Y126.64 has found it hard to deal with Y128.60

resistance, shy of a test into a stronger area between Y128.93-Y128.95. As a

result, has become overbought in the near term and has now seen a dip below

Y127.65-Y127.39 support. This now puts pressure on the more important

Y127.09-Y126.99 area. Loss will suggest rally is over and focus below Y126.64

will again centre on Y125.97. Meanwhile, Y127.75-Y128.10 becomes resistance.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8810 Resistance Caps Within Recent Range

*RES 4: Stg0.8861 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8832 Jun 11, Jun 12 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8810 Jun 1 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717

*PRICE: Stg0.8794 @0817GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8745/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8726 Jun 21 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8717 Jun 15 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Has again this month faltered on the approach to the resistance of

note between Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. Saw a high of Stg0.8832 but the subsequent

pullback from there has been relatively swift, with Stg0.8780-Stg0.8750 support

giving way and allowing a dip back to and slightly below the recent Stg0.8721-24

lows. Near term Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 now provides resistance to any recovery,

Stg0.8697-Stg0.8681 next on a break below Stg0.8726-Stg0.8717.

AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Has $0.7457-$0.7481 Resistance Next

*RES 4: $0.7550/61 61.8% of $0.7677-$0.7345, Jun 8 low 

*RES 3: $0.7521/29 1% volatility band, Jun 13 low

*RES 2: $0.7476/81 May 29 low, Jun 15 high

*RES 1: $0.7449/57 1.618 swing $0.7409-$0.7345, Jun 22 high

*PRICE: $0.7435 @0830GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7390/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7370 Initial rally high Jun 21, now support

*SUP 3: $0.7345 Jun 21 low

*SUP 4: $0.7327/33 61.8% of $0.6827-$0.8136, May 9 2017 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week's dips to firstly $0.7347 and then $0.7345, had a duel

with the lower 2% volatility band, which managed to control the fall. The

following recovery on the back of heavily oversold studies has reached $0.7457

so far, before giving back some ground. Support now between $0.7395-$0.7370,

back below the latter would concern again. Above $$0.7457 and $0.7476-$0.7481

becomes the next potential barrier to overcome.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Halted At Edge Of $1.3385-$1.3404 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3463 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3404 Equality rise from $1.2528 to $1.2249-$1.3125

*RES 2: $1.3385 76.4% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061, Jun 22 high

*RES 1: $1.3340/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3284 @0839GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3261 Jun 22 low

*SUP 2: $1.3210 Jun 15 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3159 Jun 18 low

*SUP 4: $1.3114 Jun 15 low

*COMMENTARY* The hold of key $1.2950 support this month has continued to produce

a significant recovery, which has broken above the top of the 9 month bull

channel and also the Jun 2017 high at $1.3348. It has however found the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at $1.3385 a significant barrier. This and the equality rise

target at $1.3404 are the primary contenders to put a halt to this rise, at

least for the time being. Support from 1.3261, loss here would caution.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Reaches Slightly Below $1267.2-$1262.3 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1289.3 Jun 1 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1275.4 Jun 15 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1273.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1270.1 @0849GMT

*SUP 1: $1261.2 Jun 21 low

*SUP 2: $1251.8 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 4: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2

*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month

which raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and we have now seen a $1267.2-$1262.3 fall. In fact

this has been slightly exceeded and risk is for a test to the 3 month channel

base at $1251.8 next. Resistance $1273.1-$1275.4, $1282.2 more important higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]