MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1613-$1.1601 Support To Determine Depth Of Pullback

*RES 4: $1.1771 76.4% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508

*RES 3: $1.1733 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1721 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 26 high

*RES 1: $1.1693 Jun 29 high

*PRICE: $1.1631 @1503GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1601/13 Jun 28 high, hourly low Jun 29

*SUP 2: $1.1551 Hourly basing area Jun 28

*SUP 3: $1.1527 Jun 28 low

*SUP 4: $1.1506/08 1% volatility band, Jun 21 low

*COMMENTARY* Last Thursday's fall from the week's $1.1721 high, was held at

$1.1527, keeping the month's previous $1.1508 low out of trouble for the time

being. Subsequently, having exceeded $1.1600 resistance, the recovery has grown

in pace, reaching above the near term pivot level at $1.1675. Will need to go on

and maintain levels above here, if there is to be a complete turnaround in

fortunes. Meanwhile, $1.1601 provides support against a $1.1551-$1.1527 return.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Falters At 61.8% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1.3315/23 Jun 22 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3252 76.4% Fibo of $1.3315-$1.3050

*RES 2: $1.3214/21 61.8% Fibo of $1.3315-$1.3050, Jun 25 low

*RES 1: $1.3190 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3151 @0800GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3129 Initial rally high Jun 29, now support

*SUP 2: $1.3110 Jun 28 recovery high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3080/85 Hourly highs/lows Jun 28

*SUP 4: $1.3050/59 Jun 28 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery continued on Friday, reaching the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at $1.3214, before giving back some ground, as a result of some near term

overbought conditions. Support from $1.3150 is under assault at the time of

writing, lower and the $1.3129-$1.3110 area becomes the protection to a further

$1.3085-$1.3080 fall, where bigger questions are asked. Resistance

$1.3190-$1.3195 but above that $1.3214 required to renew upside potential.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Resumes With Break Above Previous Y110.91 High

*RES 4: Y111.86 1.618 swing of Y110.91-Y109.37

*RES 3: Y111.60 76.4% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 2: Y111.34/40 1% volatility band, May 21 high

*RES 1: Y111.07 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y110.74 @0818GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.40/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.05 Jun 25 high, now support

*SUP 3: Y109.62/69 5 week rising support line, Jun 27 low

*SUP 4: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to improve since the setback to Y109.37 at the

beginning of last week. Today has marked a rally through the previous Y110.91

high, reaching Y111.07, before giving back some gains on the back of some

overbought hourly conditions. Y110.50-Y110.40 provides immediate support,

Y110.05-Y109.62 of more importance below. A continued rise will see

Y111.34-Y111.86 as the next potential target zone above Y111.07.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Reaches Into Y129.40-Y129.50 Resistance

*RES 4: Y130.03 5 month bear channel top 

*RES 3: Y129.91 1.618 swing of Y128.85-Y127.14

*RES 2: Y129.48/50 76.4% of Y130.36-Y124.62, intraday high

*RES 1: Y129.30/40 Hourly resistance, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y128.87 @0827GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.50/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y127.93/95 Jun 28 high, initial high Jun 29

*SUP 3: Y127.66 Hourly base Jun 28

*SUP 4: Y127.14 Jun 28 low

*COMMENTARY* Thursday's fall held at Y127.14, leaving the key Y127.09-Y126.99

support area untouched for the time being. The subsequent recovery has been

swift, breaking through former Y127.93 highs to eclipse Y128.46-Y128.94

resistance. Next barrier comes from between Y129.40-Y129.50, requiring above the

latter, before any further impetus will follow for a Y129.91-Y130.03 rise. In

the interim, Y128.50 provides support against a deeper correction.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Held Between 76.4% Fibo Level And 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.8921 8 month bear channel top

*RES 3: Stg0.8911 1.618 swing of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717

*RES 2: Stg0.8895 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8886/90 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, Jun 29 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8843 @0833GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8828/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8810/15 Congestion area Jun 25-27

*SUP 3: Stg0.8797/01 Jun 27 low, Jun 20 high

*SUP 4: Stg0.8772 Initial recovery high Jun 21, now support

*COMMENTARY* Daily studies remained supportive and has now been successful in

its attempt to break, the Stg0.8832-Stg0.8842 area, which had capped rallies

over the last couple of months. A high of Stg0.8890 on Friday, as the topside

again tracks toward the upper 1% volatility band. This and the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at Stg0.8886 are the barriers to a higher Stg0.8911-Stg0.8921

move. Support now Stg0.8828-Stg0.8810 but loss of Stg0.8797 will disappoint.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7407-$0.7411 The Bar To A Higher $0.7423-$0.7458 Recovery

*RES 4: $0.7500 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7323

*RES 3: $0.7457/58 Jun 22 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $0.7423 Jun 26 high

*RES 1: $0.7407/11 Jun 27, Jun 29 highs

*PRICE: $0.7374 @0839GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7362 Jun 28 high, now support

*SUP 2: $0.7336/40 Jun 29 low, hourly support

*SUP 3: $0.7323/27 Jun 27 low, 61.8% of $0.6827-$0.8136

*SUP 4: $0.7310 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* $0.7347-$0.7345 support gave way last week and the longer term

61.8% Fibo retrace level at $0.7327 had its cage rattled. A low of $0.7323 on

Wednesday, as we so far hold above the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7310. This

being the protection against a further $0.7252-$0.7235 fall. Meanwhile, back

above $0.7362-$0.7385 now has $0.7407-$0.7411 in the way of a higher

$0.7423-$0.7458 rise. As a result, $0.7362-$0.7336 reverts to support.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting After 76.4% Fibo Level Caps Gains

*RES 4: $1.3285/90 Congestion Jun 25-Jun 27

*RES 3: $1.3261/68 Jun 22 low, Jun 29 high

*RES 2: $1.3242 Jun 28 low

*RES 1: $1.3190/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3162 @0850GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3130/36 Jun 29 low, 38.2% $1.2729-$1.3387, 1% vol 

*SUP 2: $1.3114 Jun 15 low

*SUP 3: $1.3067 Jun 5 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3047/58 May 29 high, 50% of $1.2729-$1.3387

*COMMENTARY* Last month's recovery reached $1.3387 on Jun 27, basically a test

to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3385. The latter and the equality rise

target at $1.3404 were the primary contenders to put a halt to the preceding

rise from the May low at $1.2729. Support from $1.3261 has since been lost,

raising corrective concerns, $1.3136-$1.3114 now the protection against a deeper

$1.3067-$1.3047 fall.

GOLD TECHS: Decline Finding Some Support From The 3 Month Bear Channel 

*RES 4: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1276.6 Jun 20 high

*RES 2: $1272.7 Jun 22 high

*RES 1: $1261.2 Jun 21 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1248.6 @0856GMT

*SUP 1: $1245.7 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 3: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2

*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area toward the end of

May. This the rising support line at the time, from the December 2016 lows and

the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and with

the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now exceeded, the risk is for a test to the 3 month

bear channel base at $1245.7. Resistance $1261.2-$1272.7 keeps focus lower. The

Dec 12 low at $1236.6 is next on the agenda below $1245.7.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]