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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Continues Above Last Month's Low
*RES 4: $1.1747/57 1% vol band, equality rise from $1.1591
*RES 3: $1.1721 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 26 high
*RES 2: $1.1693 Jun 29 high
*RES 1: $1.1665/77 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1665 @0748GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1590/91 Hourly support, Jul 2 low
*SUP 2: $1.1551 Hourly basing area Jun 28
*SUP 3: $1.1527 Jun 28 low
*SUP 4: $1.1508/13 Jun 21 low, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The consolidation pattern above last month's $1.1508 low continues
to grow, with the hold of $1.1590 support on Monday. Now looking at resistance
from between $1.1665-$1.1675, above which would allow another look at
$1.1693-$1.1721 and potentially the $1.1747-$1.1757 region. All this below the
key near term level, the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.1771. A loss of $1.1590 would
switch attention back to $1.1551-$1.1527.
CABLE TECHS: Consolidation Buoyed While $1.3095-$1.3085 Support Holds
*RES 4: $1.3288 1.618 swing of $1.3214-$1.3095
*RES 3: $1.3252 76.4% Fibo of $1.3315-$1.3050
*RES 2: $1.3214/21 61.8% Fibo of $1.3315-$1.3050, Jun 25 low
*RES 1: $1.3185/95 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3177 @0807GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3115 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.3085/95 Hourly support, Jul 2 low
*SUP 3: $1.3050/58 Jun 28 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3027 Oct 6 low, 7 week bear channel base
*COMMENTARY* A low of $1.3095 on Monday, which holding above $1.3085, kept near
term momentum with the topside. Now looking to $1.3185 resistance for next
clues, as hold above required before the chance of extending gains into
$1.3214-$1.3221. Through which would give the green light to a higher
$1.3252-$1.3288 rise. All below the key $1.3315-$1.3355 area. Support from
$1.3115, loss would caution and divert attention back between $1.3085-$1.3027.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Continues Toward Next Y111.40-Y111.44 Resistance
*RES 4: Y111.86 1.618 swing of Y110.91-Y109.37
*RES 3: Y111.60 76.4% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63
*RES 2: Y111.40/44 May 21 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y111.14 Intraday high
*PRICE: Y110.94 @0818GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.45/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y110.05 Jun 25 high, now support
*SUP 3: Y109.69 5 week rising support line, Jun 27 low
*SUP 4: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to improve since the setback to Y109.37 at the end of
last month. This week has seen a rally through the previous Y110.91 high,
reaching Y111.14 so far today, as we move towards the next set of resistance
between Y111.40-Y111.86. Support remains from above Y110.50-Y110.45 for the time
being. This protecting against a deeper Y110.05-Y109.69 fall, the latter the Jun
27 low and also where the recent uptrend lies.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Attempting To Test 1% Vol Band And 5 Month Trendline
*RES 4: Y130.36 Jun 14 high
*RES 3: Y130.17 1.618 swing of Y129.50-Y128.42
*RES 2: Y129.91/96 Swing Y128.85-Y127.14, 5 mth bear channel
*RES 1: Y129.61 1% volatility band
*PRICE: Y129.38 @0830GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.73 Intraday low
*SUP 2: Y128.42 Jul 2 low
*SUP 3: Y127.93/95 Jun 28 high, initial high Jun 29
*SUP 4: Y127.66 Hourly base Jun 28
*COMMENTARY* Monday's Y129.50 high is under challenge today, as we head towards
the upper 1% volatility band at Y129.61. Any higher and the 5 month bear channel
top at Y129.96 then comes into view. As a consequence, nearest support rises to
the day's Y128.73 low, ahead of yesterday's Y128.42 pullback. Loss here would
disappoint and put further Y130.17-Y130.36 gains in abeyance, as a correction of
recent gains from Y127.14 begins to bite.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Held Between 76.4% Fibo Level And 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: Stg0.8921 8 month bear channel top
*RES 3: Stg0.8911 1.618 swing of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717
*RES 2: Stg0.8901 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Stg0.8886/90 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, Jun 29 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8844 @0837GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8828/30 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8810/15 Congestion area Jun 25-27
*SUP 3: Stg0.8797/01 Jun 27 low, Jun 20 high
*SUP 4: Stg0.8772 Initial recovery high Jun 21, now support
*COMMENTARY* Daily studies remained supportive and has now been successful in
its attempt to break, the Stg0.8832-Stg0.8842 area, which had capped rallies
over the last couple of months. A high of Stg0.8890 on last Friday, as the
topside again tracks toward the upper 1% volatility band. This and the 76.4%
Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8886 are the barriers to a higher Stg0.8911-Stg0.8921
move. Support now Stg0.8828-Stg0.8810 but loss of Stg0.8797 will disappoint.
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7411 Break Required Before Any Real Recovery Likely
*RES 4: $0.7454/58 1% vol, Jun 22 high, 38.2% Fibo retrace
*RES 3: $0.7423 Jun 26 high
*RES 2: $0.7407/11 Jun 27, Jun 29 highs
*RES 1: $0.7385/90 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7388 @0842GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7306/10 1% volatility band, Jul 2 low
*SUP 2: $0.7276 1.618 swing of $0.7334-$0.7457
*SUP 3: $0.7269 1.618 swing of $0.7323-$0.7411
*SUP 4: $0.7248 1.618 swing of $0.7412-$0.7677
*COMMENTARY* $0.7347-$0.7345 support gave way last week and the longer term
61.8% Fibo retrace level at $0.7327 was breached yesterday, as we so far hold
above the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7306. This being the protection against
a further $0.7276-$0.7248 fall, a trio of swing targets, ahead of the 6 month
bear channel base and lower 2% band at $0.7220-$0.7225. Resistance moves to
$0.7385-$0.7390, ahead last Friday's $0.7411 high.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting After 76.4% Fibo Level Caps Gains
*RES 4: $1.3326 Initial pullback low Jun 27, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.3285/90 Congestion Jun 25-Jun 27
*RES 2: $1.3261/68 Jun 22 low, Jun 29 high
*RES 1: $1.3225/42 Jul 2 high, Jun 28 low
*PRICE: $1.3160 @0855GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3150/55 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3126/36 1% vol, Jun 29 low, 38.2% $1.2729-$1.3387
*SUP 3: $1.3114 Jun 15 low
*SUP 4: $1.3067 Jun 5 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Last month's recovery reached $1.3387 on Jun 27, basically a test
to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3385. The latter and the equality rise
target at $1.3404 were the primary contenders to put a halt to the preceding
rise from the May low at $1.2729. Support from $1.3261 has since been lost,
raising corrective concerns, $1.3136-$1.3114 now the protection against a deeper
$1.3067-$1.3047 fall. Nearest resistance $1.3225-$1.3261.
GOLD TECHS: Decline Approaching Assignation With Last December's Low
*RES 4: $1272.7 May 21 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1264.5 Congestion area Jun 21-26
*RES 2: $1261.2 Jun 21 low
*RES 1: $1255.8 Jun 29 high
*PRICE: $1245.1 @0913GMT
*SUP 1: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 2: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2
*SUP 3: $1224.5 Equality fall from $1272.7 to $1309.4-$1261.2
*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area toward the end of
May. This the rising support line at the time, from the December 2016 lows and
the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and with
the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now exceeded, the base of the 3 month bear channel
base has been exposed, leaving the Dec 12 low at $1236.6 as next support on the
agenda. Any lower and look to two equality fall targets between $1226.2-$1224.5.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.