-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Continues Above Last Month's Low
*RES 4: $1.1771 76.4% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508
*RES 3: $1.1753/57 1% vol band, equality rise from $1.1591
*RES 2: $1.1721 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 26 high
*RES 1: $1.1693 Jun 29 high
*PRICE: $1.1642 @0819GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1610 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1591 Jul 2 low, 61.8% Fibo of $1.1527-$1.1693
*SUP 3: $1.1566 76.4% Fibo of $1.1527-$1.1693
*SUP 4: $1.1527 Jun 28 low
*COMMENTARY* The consolidation pattern above last month's $1.1508 low continues
to grow, with the hold of $1.1590 support on Monday. The subsequent failure to
deal with $1.1693 resistance suggests another move down within the recent range.
Look to $1.1610-$1.1591 again for support, with any overshoot likely to test
$1.1566. All this is playing out below the key near term level, the 76.4% Fibo
retrace at $1.1771. All rallies carry no threat while capped here.
CABLE TECHS: Range Trading Prevails During This Consolidation Phase
*RES 4: $1.3315 Jun 22 high
*RES 3: $1.3288 1.618 swing of $1.3214-$1.3095
*RES 2: $1.3252 76.4% Fibo of $1.3315-$1.3050
*RES 1: $1.3228 Intraday high
*PRICE: $1.3198 @0830GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3140/45 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3115 Jul 3 low
*SUP 3: $1.3095 Jul 2 low
*SUP 4: $1.3050/60 Jun 28 low, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Monday's $1.3095 low kept near term momentum with the topside. The
subsequent move back above $1.3185 resistance has allowed the chance to extend
gains into $1.3221-$1.3228 resistance. Through which would give the green light
to a higher $1.3252-$1.3288 rise. All below the key $1.3315-$1.3355 area.
Support $1.3145-$1.3140 and then from $1.3115-$1.3095, loss would caution and
divert attention back down the range and on $1.3060-$1.3050.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Correcting Recent Gains, Y109.79-Y109.75 Key Support
*RES 4: Y111.60 76.4% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63
*RES 3: Y111.40 May 21 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Y111.14 Jul 3 high
*RES 1: Y110.85/95 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y110.53 @0848GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.25 50% Fibo of Y109.37-Y111.14
*SUP 2: Y110.05 Jun 25 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y109.37-Y111.14
*SUP 3: Y109.75/79 6 week rising support line, 76.4% fibo
*SUP 4: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to improve since the setback to Y109.37 at the end of
last month. This week has seen a rally through the previous Y110.91 high,
reaching Y111.14 so far but unable as yet to test the next set of resistance
between Y111.40-Y111.86. Subsequently correcting gains from that Y109.37 level,
with support from Y110.25-Y110.05 protecting the near term key area between
Y109.79-Y109.75, where the recent uptrend lies.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Fails To Test 1% Vol Band And 5 Month Trendline
*RES 4: Y130.36 Jun 14 high
*RES 3: Y129.89/91 5 mth bear channel, swing Y128.85-Y127.14
*RES 2: Y129.57/63 Jul 3 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y129.00/10 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y128.64 @0900GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.35/42 50% Fibo of Y127.14-Y129.57, Jul 2 low
*SUP 2: Y128.07 61.8% Fibo of Y127.14-Y129.57
*SUP 3: Y127.93/95 Jun 28 high, initial high Jun 29
*SUP 4: Y127.66/71 Hourly low Jun 28, 76.4% Fibo level
*COMMENTARY* The rally still hampered by the upper 1% volatility band on
Tuesday. A high of Y129.57, before giving up ground and beginning a correction
of recent gains from the Jun 28 low at Y127.14. The dip is moving back towards
a 50% retrace so far, this at Y128.35 currently keeping a deeper Y128.07-Y127.71
fall at bay. Will need to see gains back above Y129.10 before the upside regains
some confidence, Y128.89-Y129.91 then waiting above Y129.63.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Capped Between 76.4% Fibo And 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: Stg0.8911 1.618 swing of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717
*RES 3: Stg0.8903 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Stg0.8886/91 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, Jun 29 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8865/70 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8813 @0915GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8810/15 Congestion area Jun 25-27
*SUP 2: Stg0.8797/01 Jun 27 low, Jun 20 high
*SUP 3: Stg0.8784 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8718-Stg0.8891
*SUP 4: Stg0.8759 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8718-Stg0.8891
*COMMENTARY* Stg0.8891 has been the top of the rally so far, just through the
76.4% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8886 but shy of the upper 1% volatility band at
Stg0.8903 and the swing target at Stg0.8911. All of these beneath the 8 month
bear channel top, which currently resides at Stg0.8920. Subsequent slip is
testing initial Stg0.8810 support, loss will allow a deeper seback with
Stg0.8801-Stg0.8797 then protecting Stg0.8784-Stg0.8759.
AUSSIE TECHS: Pullback Underway As $0.7423-$0.7425 Area Caps Again
*RES 4: $0.7528 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $0.7493 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7310
*RES 2: $0.7450/57 38.2% Fibo retrace, 1% vol, Jun 22 high
*RES 1: $0.7423/25 Jun 26, intraday highs
*PRICE: $0.7386 @0929GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7365/70 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $0.7335/40 Hourly congestion Jul 2-Jul 3
*SUP 3: $0.7307/10 Jul 2 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $0.7276 1.618 swing of $0.7334-$0.7457
*COMMENTARY* Has moved slightly through $0.7411 resistance today but without
much conviction as yet. A high of $0.7425 before giving up some ground, on the
back of some overbought hourly conditions. Now looking towards $0.7365-$0.7335
for support and as the protection against a return to the recent $0.7307 low and
potentially lower. Meanwhile, will take a mover back above $0.7425, before the
chance of continuing the rally to $0.7450-$0.7457 next.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting After 76.4% Fibo Level Caps Gains
*RES 4: $1.3261/68 Jun 22 low, Jun 29 high
*RES 3: $1.3225/42 Jul 2 high, Jun 28 low
*RES 2: $1.3195 Hourly congestion Jul 2-Jul 3
*RES 1: $1.3176 Hourly recovery high Jul 3
*PRICE: $1.3153 @0935GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3112/14 Intraday, Jun 15 lows
*SUP 2: $1.3067/71 Jun 5 high, 1.618 swing $1.3130-$1.3225
*SUP 3: $1.3058 50% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387
*SUP 4: $1.2977/80 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387
*COMMENTARY* Last month's recovery reached $1.3387 on Jun 27, basically a test
to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3385. The latter and the equality rise
target at $1.3404 were the primary contenders to put a halt to the preceding
rise from the May low at $1.2729. Support from $1.3261 has since been lost,
raising corrective concerns, $1.3114-$1.3112 now the protection against a deeper
$1.3067-$1.3058 fall. Nearest resistance $1.3176-$1.3195, then $1.3225 above.
GOLD TECHS: Decline Holds Above Last December's Low
*RES 4: $1284.1 Jun 19 high
*RES 3: $1272.7 May 21 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1264.5 Congestion area Jun 21-26
*RES 1: $1261.2 Jun 21 low
*PRICE: $1256.7 @0939GMT
*SUP 1: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 2: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2
*SUP 3: $1224.5 Equality fall from $1272.7 to $1309.4-$1261.2
*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area toward the end of
May. This the rising support line at the time, from the December 2016 lows and
the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and with
the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now exceeded, the base of the 3 month bear channel
base has been exposed, leaving the Dec 12 low at $1236.6 as next support on the
agenda. Any lower and look to two equality fall targets between $1226.2-$1224.5.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.