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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Continues Above Last Month's Low
*RES 4: $1.1796 1.618 swing of $1.1693-$1.1527
*RES 3: $1.1768/71 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508
*RES 2: $1.1757 Equality rise from $1.1591 to $1.1527-$1.1693
*RES 1: $1.1721/27 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, i'day high
*PRICE: $1.1711 @0716GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1650/72 Jul 5 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1620/30 Jul 3, Jul 4 lows
*SUP 3: $1.1591 Jul 2 low
*SUP 4: $1.1570 Congestion area Jun 28-Jun 29
*COMMENTARY* The consolidation pattern above last month's $1.1508 low continues
to grow, with the hold of $1.1590 support on Monday. Wednesday saw
$1.1610-$1.1620 deal with the setback and as a result, there is scope to
continue the rise, the $1.1721 area anticipated to provide next resistance. Any
higher and $1.1757-$1.1771 looks a tougher proposition. Support moves up to
$1.1672-$1.1650 and this should hold if gains are to continue at this stage.
CABLE TECHS: Recovery Attempts Break Above $1.3252-$1.3259 Resistance
*RES 4: $1.3325/34 1% vol band, 2 month falling res line
*RES 3: $1.3315 Jun 22 high
*RES 2: $1.3288 1.618 swing of $1.3214-$1.3095
*RES 1: $1.3275 Jul 5 high
*PRICE: $1.3234 @0720GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3190/00 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3171 Jul 4 low
*SUP 3: $1.3135/55 Congestion area Jul 2-Jul 3
*SUP 4: $1.3095 Jul 2 low
*COMMENTARY* Monday's hold of $1.3095 support kept momentum with the topside.
The subsequent move above $1.3185 has allowed the chance to extend gains through
$1.3252-$1.3259 resistance. The latter being the equality rise target from
$1.3095 to the prior $1.3050-$1.3214 move. Support comes from $1.3200-$1.3190
and then yesterday's $1.3171 low. Would anticipate the latter to hold, if gains
are to continue. Sustained move above $1.3259 and $1.3288-$1.3315 next.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Correction Holding Above Key Y109.87-Y109.79 Support
*RES 4: Y111.52/60 1% vol band, 76.4% of Y113.75-Y104.63
*RES 3: Y111.40 May 21 high
*RES 2: Y111.14 Jul 3 high
*RES 1: Y110.85/95 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y110.56 @0723GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.25/28 50% Fibo of Y109.37-Y111.14, Jul 4 low
*SUP 2: Y110.05 Jun 25 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y109.37-Y111.14
*SUP 3: Y109.79/87 76.4% Fibo, 6 week rising support line
*SUP 4: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to improve since the setback to Y109.37 at the end of
last month. This week has seen a rally through the previous Y110.91 high,
reaching Y111.14 so far but unable as yet to test the next set of resistance
between Y111.40-Y111.86. Subsequently correcting gains from that Y109.37 level,
with support from Y110.25-Y110.05 protecting the near term key area between
Y109.87-Y109.79, where the recent uptrend and 76.4% Fibo retrace lie.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Attempting Another Test To 5 Month Channel Top
*RES 4: Y130.72 1.618 projection target from Y127.14
*RES 3: Y130.36 Jun 14 high
*RES 2: Y129.91/94 1.618 swing Y128.85-Y127.14, 1% vol band
*RES 1: Y129.75 5 month bear channel top
*PRICE: Y129.43 @0728GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.80/97 Hourly support, Jul 4 high
*SUP 2: Y128.58 Jul 5 low
*SUP 3: Y128.35/42 50% Fibo of Y127.14-Y129.57, Jul 2 low
*SUP 4: Y128.07 61.8% Fibo of Y127.14-Y129.57
*COMMENTARY* The continued hold above the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y128.35 has
been the inspiration for the full recovery and now above the week's previous
Y129.57 high. Through and the Y129.75-Y129.91 area, is likely to provide the
next resistance, the upper 1% volatility band also residing at Y129.94 today.
This region the bar to a Y130.36 return. Support comes from Y128.97-Y128.80,
with yesterday's Y128.58 low thereafter.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pulling Back After Last Friday's 'Gravestone Doji' Close
*RES 4: Stg0.8911/18 1.618 swing Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717, 1% vol
*RES 3: Stg0.8886/91 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, Jun 29 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8869 Jul 2 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8855 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8849 @0730GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8797/01 Jun 27, Jul 4 lows, Jun 20 high
*SUP 2: Stg0.8784 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8718-Stg0.8891
*SUP 3: Stg0.8759 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8718-Stg0.8891
*SUP 4: Stg0.8741 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Stg0.8891 has been the top of the rally so far, just through the
76.4% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8886 but shy of the upper 1% volatility band
and the swing target at Stg0.8911. All of these beneath the 8 month bear channel
top, which currently resides at Stg0.8920. The subsequent slip has been
encouraged by the almost 'Gravestone Doji' like candle close last Friday.
Support from between Stg0.8801-Stg0.8797 now protecting Stg0.8784-Stg0.8759.
AUSSIE TECHS: Pullback Underway As $0.7423-$0.7425 Area Caps Again
*RES 4: $0.7525 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $0.7493 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7310
*RES 2: $0.7450/57 38.2% Fibo retrace, 1% vol, Jun 22 high
*RES 1: $0.7423/25 Jun 26, Jul 4 highs
*PRICE: $0.7401 @0733GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7355/60 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $0.7335/40 Hourly congestion Jul 2-Jul 3
*SUP 3: $0.7303/10 1% volatility band, Jul 2 low
*SUP 4: $0.7276 1.618 swing of $0.7334-$0.7457
*COMMENTARY* Has moved through $0.7411 resistance but without much conviction as
yet. A high of $0.7425 before giving up some ground, on the back of some
overbought hourly conditions. The appearance of a 'Doji' candle at Wednesday's
close is also a near term concern. Now looking towards $0.7360-$0.7335 for
support and as the protection against a return to the recent $0.7310 low and
potentially lower. Meanwhile, back above $0.7425 will remove the 'Doji' threat.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting After 76.4% Fibo Level Caps Gains
*RES 4: $1.3261/68 Jun 22 low, Jun 29 high
*RES 3: $1.3225/42 Jul 2 high, Jun 28 low
*RES 2: $1.3195 Hourly congestion Jul 2-Jul 3
*RES 1: $1.3176 Hourly recovery high Jul 3
*PRICE: $1.3133 @0734GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3112/14 Jul 4, Jun 15 lows
*SUP 2: $1.3067/71 Jun 5 high, 1.618 swing $1.3130-$1.3225
*SUP 3: $1.3058 50% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387
*SUP 4: $1.2980 61.8% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387
*COMMENTARY* Last month's recovery reached $1.3387 on Jun 27, basically a test
to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3385. The latter and the equality rise
target at $1.3404 were the primary contenders to put a halt to the preceding
rise from the May low at $1.2729. Support from $1.3261 has since been lost,
raising corrective concerns, $1.3114-$1.3112 now the protection against a deeper
$1.3067-$1.3058 fall. Nearest resistance $1.3176-$1.3195, then $1.3225 above.
GOLD TECHS: Decline Holds Above Last December's Low
*RES 4: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1272.7 Jun 22, Jun 25 highs
*RES 2: $1264.5 Congestion area Jun 21-26
*RES 1: $1261.2 Jun 21 low
*PRICE: $1254.8 @0736GMT
*SUP 1: $1243.5 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 3: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2
*SUP 4: $1224.5 Equality fall from $1272.7 to $1309.4-$1261.2
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area toward the end of
May. This the rising support line at the time, from the December 2016 lows and
the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and with
the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now lost and the base of the 3 month bear channel
base exceeded, this leaves the Dec 12 low at $1236.6 as next support on the
agenda. Any lower and look to two equality fall targets between $1226.2-$1224.5.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.