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WTI Remains Bullish, on Track for Cycle High Close

By Les Castell
     
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Continues Above Last Month's Low
*RES 4: $1.1796 1.618 swing of $1.1693-$1.1527
*RES 3: $1.1768/71 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508
*RES 2: $1.1757 Equality rise from $1.1591 to $1.1527-$1.1693
*RES 1: $1.1721/27 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, i'day high
*PRICE: $1.1711 @0716GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1650/72 Jul 5 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1620/30 Jul 3, Jul 4 lows 
*SUP 3: $1.1591 Jul 2 low
*SUP 4: $1.1570 Congestion area Jun 28-Jun 29
*COMMENTARY* The consolidation pattern above last month's $1.1508 low continues
to grow, with the hold of $1.1590 support on Monday. Wednesday saw
$1.1610-$1.1620 deal with the setback and as a result, there is scope to
continue the rise, the $1.1721 area anticipated to provide next resistance. Any
higher and $1.1757-$1.1771 looks a tougher proposition. Support moves up to
$1.1672-$1.1650 and this should hold if gains are to continue at this stage.
     
CABLE TECHS: Recovery Attempts Break Above $1.3252-$1.3259 Resistance
*RES 4: $1.3325/34 1% vol band, 2 month falling res line
*RES 3: $1.3315 Jun 22 high
*RES 2: $1.3288 1.618 swing of $1.3214-$1.3095
*RES 1: $1.3275 Jul 5 high
*PRICE: $1.3234 @0720GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3190/00 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3171 Jul 4 low
*SUP 3: $1.3135/55 Congestion area Jul 2-Jul 3
*SUP 4: $1.3095 Jul 2 low
*COMMENTARY* Monday's hold of $1.3095 support kept momentum with the topside.
The subsequent move above $1.3185 has allowed the chance to extend gains through
$1.3252-$1.3259 resistance. The latter being the equality rise target from
$1.3095 to the prior $1.3050-$1.3214 move. Support comes from $1.3200-$1.3190
and then yesterday's $1.3171 low. Would anticipate the latter to hold, if gains
are to continue. Sustained move above $1.3259 and $1.3288-$1.3315 next.
     
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Correction Holding Above Key Y109.87-Y109.79 Support
*RES 4: Y111.52/60 1% vol band, 76.4% of Y113.75-Y104.63
*RES 3: Y111.40 May 21 high
*RES 2: Y111.14 Jul 3 high
*RES 1: Y110.85/95 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y110.56 @0723GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.25/28 50% Fibo of Y109.37-Y111.14, Jul 4 low
*SUP 2: Y110.05 Jun 25 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y109.37-Y111.14
*SUP 3: Y109.79/87 76.4% Fibo, 6 week rising support line
*SUP 4: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to improve since the setback to Y109.37 at the end of
last month. This week has seen a rally through the previous Y110.91 high,
reaching Y111.14 so far but unable as yet to test the next set of resistance
between Y111.40-Y111.86. Subsequently correcting gains from that Y109.37 level,
with support from Y110.25-Y110.05 protecting the near term key area between
Y109.87-Y109.79, where the recent uptrend and 76.4% Fibo retrace lie.
     
EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Attempting Another Test To 5 Month Channel Top
*RES 4: Y130.72 1.618 projection target from Y127.14
*RES 3: Y130.36 Jun 14 high
*RES 2: Y129.91/94 1.618 swing Y128.85-Y127.14, 1% vol band
*RES 1: Y129.75 5 month bear channel top
*PRICE: Y129.43 @0728GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.80/97 Hourly support, Jul 4 high
*SUP 2: Y128.58 Jul 5 low
*SUP 3: Y128.35/42 50% Fibo of Y127.14-Y129.57, Jul 2 low
*SUP 4: Y128.07 61.8% Fibo of Y127.14-Y129.57
*COMMENTARY* The continued hold above the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y128.35 has
been the inspiration for the full recovery and now above the week's previous
Y129.57 high. Through and the Y129.75-Y129.91 area, is likely to provide the
next resistance, the upper 1% volatility band also residing at Y129.94 today.
This region the bar to a Y130.36 return. Support comes from Y128.97-Y128.80,
with yesterday's Y128.58 low thereafter.
     
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pulling Back After Last Friday's 'Gravestone Doji' Close 
*RES 4: Stg0.8911/18 1.618 swing Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717, 1% vol
*RES 3: Stg0.8886/91 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, Jun 29 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8869 Jul 2 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8855 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8849 @0730GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8797/01 Jun 27, Jul 4 lows, Jun 20 high
*SUP 2: Stg0.8784 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8718-Stg0.8891
*SUP 3: Stg0.8759 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8718-Stg0.8891
*SUP 4: Stg0.8741 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Stg0.8891 has been the top of the rally so far, just through the
76.4% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8886 but shy of the upper 1% volatility band
and the swing target at Stg0.8911. All of these beneath the 8 month bear channel
top, which currently resides at Stg0.8920. The subsequent slip has been
encouraged by the almost 'Gravestone Doji' like candle close last Friday.
Support from between Stg0.8801-Stg0.8797 now protecting Stg0.8784-Stg0.8759.
     
AUSSIE TECHS: Pullback Underway As $0.7423-$0.7425 Area Caps Again
*RES 4: $0.7525 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $0.7493 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7310
*RES 2: $0.7450/57 38.2% Fibo retrace, 1% vol, Jun 22 high 
*RES 1: $0.7423/25 Jun 26, Jul 4 highs
*PRICE: $0.7401 @0733GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7355/60 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $0.7335/40 Hourly congestion Jul 2-Jul 3
*SUP 3: $0.7303/10 1% volatility band, Jul 2 low
*SUP 4: $0.7276 1.618 swing of $0.7334-$0.7457
*COMMENTARY* Has moved through $0.7411 resistance but without much conviction as
yet. A high of $0.7425 before giving up some ground, on the back of some
overbought hourly conditions. The appearance of a 'Doji' candle at Wednesday's
close is also a near term concern. Now looking towards $0.7360-$0.7335 for
support and as the protection against a return to the recent $0.7310 low and
potentially lower. Meanwhile, back above $0.7425 will remove the 'Doji' threat.
     
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting After 76.4% Fibo Level Caps Gains
*RES 4: $1.3261/68 Jun 22 low, Jun 29 high
*RES 3: $1.3225/42 Jul 2 high, Jun 28 low
*RES 2: $1.3195 Hourly congestion Jul 2-Jul 3
*RES 1: $1.3176 Hourly recovery high Jul 3
*PRICE: $1.3133 @0734GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3112/14 Jul 4, Jun 15 lows
*SUP 2: $1.3067/71 Jun 5 high, 1.618 swing $1.3130-$1.3225
*SUP 3: $1.3058 50% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387
*SUP 4: $1.2980 61.8% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387
*COMMENTARY* Last month's recovery reached $1.3387 on Jun 27, basically a test
to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3385. The latter and the equality rise
target at $1.3404 were the primary contenders to put a halt to the preceding
rise from the May low at $1.2729. Support from $1.3261 has since been lost,
raising corrective concerns, $1.3114-$1.3112 now the protection against a deeper
$1.3067-$1.3058 fall. Nearest resistance $1.3176-$1.3195, then $1.3225 above.
     
GOLD TECHS: Decline Holds Above Last December's Low
*RES 4: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1272.7 Jun 22, Jun 25 highs
*RES 2: $1264.5 Congestion area Jun 21-26 
*RES 1: $1261.2 Jun 21 low
*PRICE: $1254.8 @0736GMT
*SUP 1: $1243.5 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 3: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2
*SUP 4: $1224.5 Equality fall from $1272.7 to $1309.4-$1261.2
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area toward the end of
May. This the rising support line at the time, from the December 2016 lows and
the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and with
the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now lost and the base of the 3 month bear channel
base exceeded, this leaves the Dec 12 low at $1236.6 as next support on the
agenda. Any lower and look to two equality fall targets between $1226.2-$1224.5.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]