MNI US OPEN - China Mulls Record Bond Sales
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- CHINA MULLS RECORD SPECIAL BOND SALE TO FUND STIMULUS
- MUTED TRADE, EGB MARKETS CLOSED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
- RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING LAST DATAPOINT OF THE DAY
Figure 1: EUR/USD 12m Vols Look to End Year on a High
NEWS:
IRAN/RUSSIA (BBG): Iran Oil Tycoon ‘Hector’ Plays Key Role in Arms Sales to Russia
An Iranian oil tycoon who’s managed to quietly embed himself in the heart of the Western financial system is among a cadre of businessmen handling weapons deliveries across the Caspian Sea to Russia, helping Moscow in its war in Ukraine.
TAIWAN (BBG): Taiwan Says Deals With Chip Firms Could Suffer in Budget Revamp
Taiwan’s government warned that its collaboration with global semiconductor companies could suffer if a controversial budget revamp proceeds, adding to its criticisms of broad legal changes sought by the opposition. The changes to budget rules would hurt R&D collaboration with firms such as Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. because the government would be forced to cut subsidies, Chiou Chyou-huey, head of the Department of Industrial Technology, said Tuesday at a press briefing in Taipei.
CHINA (RTRS) China Mulls Record $411 Billion Special Bonds, Reuters Says
China’s policymakers plan to sell a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) of special treasury bonds in 2025, Reuters reported on Tuesday, a move aimed at bolstering the slowing economy. The plan would be a sharp increase from this year’s 1 trillion yuan and be used to support consumption and investments as well as recapitalizing large state banks, according to Reuters, citing two unnamed sources.
SOUTH KOREA (BBG): South Korea Opposition Targets Acting President With Impeachment
South Korea’s main opposition party is seeking to impeach Acting President Han Duck-soo in a potentially risky move to put maximum pressure on the ruling party. The Democratic Party intends to wait till Thursday to submit an impeachment motion, according to Yonhap News, delaying its earlier plan to submit on Tuesday. Officials were frustrated as Han indicated at a cabinet meeting he would not approve the special counsel bills the opposition has been pushing for.
UK (FT): UK’s listed builders on track to build fewest new houses in a decade
Vistry shares drop after it issues third profit warning as others suffer from falling sales
FOREX: Trend Structure in GBP/USD Remains Bearish
The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low, was pierced on Dec 20. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2446.
- Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and last week’s strong gains reinforce current conditions. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high.
- The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows.Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
TURKEY: MNI CBRT Preview – December 2024
- There are mixed views over whether the CBRT will commence its easing cycle or keep the one-week repo rate unchanged at 50%, though risks appear skewed towards the former.
- Dovish tweaks to the central bank’s language last month and insights from our EM Policy Team both point to a rate cut being delivered at the final meeting of the year.
- As per the Bloomberg survey, 18 out of 22 analysts expect a rate cut to be delivered, with estimates ranging from a cut of as small as 150bps to as large as 300bps.
See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.
EQUITIES: US Futures Point to Mildly Higher Open
Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 124.49 pts or -0.32% at 39036.85 and the TOPIX ended 0.52 pts higher or +0.02% at 2727.26. |
Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 42.271 pts or +1.26% at 3393.528 and the HANG SENG ended 215.16 pts higher or +1.08% at 20098.29. |
Dow Jones mini up 23 pts or +0.05% at 43342, S&P 500 mini up 7.25 pts or +0.12% at 6042.75, NASDAQ mini up 37.25 pts or +0.17% at 21789. |
COMMODITIES: Copper Gains Alongside US Equity Futures
WTI Crude up $0.41 or +0.59% at $69.62 |
Natural Gas up $0.07 or +1.91% at $3.719 |
Gold spot up $4.96 or +0.19% at $2617.59 |
Copper up $2.75 or +0.67% at $410.9 |
Silver down $0.07 or -0.22% at $29.5901 |
Platinum up $1.65 or +0.18% at $943.56 |
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
24/12/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
24/12/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
24/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
24/12/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
24/12/2024 | 1630/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |