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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 213k in March after a strong 275k in Feb.
- Watch two-month revisions after the February report’s -167k – response rates have improved but are still on the low side historically.
- There has been particularly wide divergence between payrolls and household survey employment growth over the past three months – we expect a bounce in the household survey and potential for a modest downside surprise for March payrolls.
- With increased focus on immigration, the u/e rate should help guide on broader labor market balance. We don’t expect it this month, but it wouldn’t take much of an upside surprise to see expectations of an overshoot of the FOMC’s recently lowered 4.0% forecast for end-2024.
- AHE growth is broadly seen returning to a more trend-like 0.3% M/M after weather distortions through Jan-Feb. UBS do however see upside risk from a calendar effect.
- FOMC pricing is off highs seen after Monday’s ISM manufacturing survey but still only has a first cut coming in July before less than 70bp of cuts for the year.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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