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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- Bloomberg consensus sees payrolls growth of 225k in June after May’s large beat of 339k, with the primary dealer survey pointing to modest upside risk. Watch revisions to see whether that pace is maintained.
- AHE is seen increasing 0.3% M/M for the second month with unusually uniform analyst expectations – a surprise in either direction here should offer a clean read.
- In the separate household survey, the u/e rate is seen ticking a tenth lower on rounding to 3.6% (close either way after May’s unrounded 3.655%) after it jumped 0.3pps in May.
- Along with Wednesday’s CPI, it’s the last major release before the Jul 26 FOMC. The first look at Q2 GDP plus the Q2 ECI and monthly PCE data for June all land 1-2days after the decision.
- The market is pricing a 21-22bp hike for the July 26 decision whilst not yet being won over by the FOMC’s median dot of two hikes from current levels, with a November terminal currently at a cumulative +34bps.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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