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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Federal Reserve
Executive Summary
- Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 241k in April after another strong 303k in March.
- Private payrolls are seen increasing 190k, implying government job creation at its softest since Nov but still almost more than two and a half times the average pace seen in 2019.
- Markets will be mindful of household survey volatility but with continued focus on immigration-driven supply side strength, the u/e rate should help guide on broader labor market balance.
- Few analysts look for an upside surprise for the u/e rate but we wouldn’t rule one out with risk of a dovish reaction. At 3.83% in March, it doesn’t take much to move closer to the FOMC’s 4.0% end-2024 forecast.
- AHE growth is seen settling in at 0.3% M/M pace again although a few analysts caution potential downside risks from calendar effects.
- Powell’s high for longer message on Wednesday disappointed some more hawkish positioning but a first cut is still seen only around November or December meetings after continued data strength.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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