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MNI US Payrolls Preview: Markets On Recession Watch

US

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


  • Released Friday at 0830ET, Bloomberg consensus looks for still solid nonfarm payrolls growth of 230k in March as it falls back to closer to December’s pace with a return of more typical weather.
  • Actual expectations might be a little lower now after a recent string of weak data labour indicators. Wells Fargo have lowered their estimate from 240k to 190k, the Bloomberg Whisper currently tracks at 225k.
  • Pricing for the May FOMC is in the balance, currently seen as approaching a coin toss between pausing and hiking a final 25bps.
  • An upside surprise would likely need to be followed by US CPI next week to see a material shift higher in the path. Alternatively, a downside miss could see a large dovish reaction considering recent reactions to smaller releases, even with the weaker backdrop already priced.
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MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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