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MNI US Payrolls Preview: Storms and Strike Uncertainty

The unemployment rate is likely in particular focus to gauge latest labor market conditions after a surprise decline
USHomepageNorth AmericaEmployment InsightMarketsStoryRegion

MNI (LONDON) - Executive Summary

  • Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to slow materially to circa 100k in October after a booming 254k in September, with significant disruption from strikes and potential hurricane fallout.
  • The Fed’s Waller has previously estimated this could drag 100k from payrolls this month although that appears right at the top end of analyst expectations.
  • Quantifying the storm impact is going to be difficult and will no doubt continue to see question marks in next month’s November report as any effect is theoretically reversed.
  • The household survey’s unemployment rate should be less impacted and here we note skew to an upside surprise to consensus of 4.1% after the surprisingly low 4.05% in September.
  • That said, considering the downward and unknown nature of potential distortions this month, we see greater risk to market reaction from a stronger print barring a particularly weak report with no signs of storm disruption. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: USNFPNov2024Preview.pdf

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MNI (LONDON) - Executive Summary

  • Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to slow materially to circa 100k in October after a booming 254k in September, with significant disruption from strikes and potential hurricane fallout.
  • The Fed’s Waller has previously estimated this could drag 100k from payrolls this month although that appears right at the top end of analyst expectations.
  • Quantifying the storm impact is going to be difficult and will no doubt continue to see question marks in next month’s November report as any effect is theoretically reversed.
  • The household survey’s unemployment rate should be less impacted and here we note skew to an upside surprise to consensus of 4.1% after the surprisingly low 4.05% in September.
  • That said, considering the downward and unknown nature of potential distortions this month, we see greater risk to market reaction from a stronger print barring a particularly weak report with no signs of storm disruption. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: USNFPNov2024Preview.pdf