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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Nonfarm payrolls are expected to moderate in June after a surprisingly strong May.
- However, with heightened uncertainty around what’s the genuine pace of employment growth, there could be greater focus on the unemployment rate to assess labor market imbalances.
- The unemployment rate has been trending higher and is already at a level where the FOMC expects it to end 2024, although data volatility could see it surprise lower on a rounded basis this month.
- We also caution that there’s scope for an upward surprise in average hourly earnings growth owing to a calendar shift (cons 0.3% M/M), although this impact would be reversed in July.
- Fixed income markets have rallied ahead of payrolls on a string of dovish data releases. It leaves the skew to market reaction on surprises potentially more two-sided although we’d still lean to greater sensitivity to a dovish report.
- Fed Funds contracts currently have a cumulative 19.5bp of cuts for the September meeting and 48bps for year-end, more dovish than the latest FOMC dot plot with a median of just one cut to year-end.
- There is of course though a huge amount of data before the Sept FOMC, including two additional NFP reports.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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