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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- Core PCE is seen increasing 0.15% M/M in July, cementing a third month just below 2% annualized.
- The Y/Y is expected to increase a tenth to 2.7% Y/Y but is exaggerated by rounding – base effects will increasingly come into effect into Q4.
- The consumer spending data could have a greater impact than inflation this month - analysts look for solid personal consumption growth after surprise strength in retail sales.
- A firm print can pressure the 104bp of cuts over the three meetings left this year, but we expect particular sensitivity to surprise weakness in discretionary consumer spending. Any outturn will be viewed knowing that next week’s NFP report on Sep 6 is likely to ultimately guide a 25bp or 50bp FOMC cut on Sep 18.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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