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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Apr 2023
MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Apr 2023
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- Nominal coupon auction sizes are not expected to change through at least Q3 2023, especially given the ongoing uncertainty from the debt limit crisis. Indeed, the debt ceiling will be a key area of focus for markets ahead of (and beyond) the next quarterly refunding announcement on May 3.
- The cash on hand in the US Treasury General Account hit a fresh post-2021 low at the end of March, and could dip a little further ahead of tax payments in mid-April which will replenish the coffers. But the Treasury will again be close to reaching the limits of its spending capacity by early June ahead of another tax milestone date in mid-June.
- Analyst expectations for the “x-date” by when all available resources run out hasn’t really changed for the past few months: it’s still seen occurring some time between late July and mid-September.
- March’s coupon auctions were on a par with February’s sales, and poor at that (6 of 7 auctions tailed in Feb, with 5 of 7 doing so in Mar). The context for these was the turbulence in US banks, the fallout of which was most acutely felt between auctions.
Please see PDF for full analysis:
MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2023_041.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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