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MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: July 2024

Treasury coupon supply was well-absorbed in June.

HomepageGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - USGlobal Issuance - Deep DiveMarkets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Treasury coupon supply was well-absorbed in June, with just 2 of 7 auctions tailing, and both of those at the short end of the curve (2Y and 3Y).
  • The next quarterly Treasury Refunding process begins on July 29 with the marketable borrowing estimates, with the Refunding announcement itself on July 31.
  • While there is some concern that coupon auction sizes could be raised at some point in the quarters ahead, for the rest of this year bigger fiscal shortfalls are likely to be met with higher bill issuance, all else being equal.
  • MNI’s Treasury / Bill issuance calendar is regularly updated at this link.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2024_06.pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Treasury coupon supply was well-absorbed in June, with just 2 of 7 auctions tailing, and both of those at the short end of the curve (2Y and 3Y).
  • The next quarterly Treasury Refunding process begins on July 29 with the marketable borrowing estimates, with the Refunding announcement itself on July 31.
  • While there is some concern that coupon auction sizes could be raised at some point in the quarters ahead, for the rest of this year bigger fiscal shortfalls are likely to be met with higher bill issuance, all else being equal.
  • MNI’s Treasury / Bill issuance calendar is regularly updated at this link.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2024_06.pdf