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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Nov 2023 - Refunding Preview
MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Nov 2023 - Refunding Preview
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- The US Treasury is set to continue raising the size of nominal coupon auction sizes - MNI’s expectations for the upcoming 3 months to be announced at the Nov 1 Refunding announcement is in the table below.
- August's refunding statement came with the note that "further gradual increases will likely be necessary in future quarters" to coupon sizes, and that's what we expect in November. The 2Y through 7Y segments are set to be increased by the same amount as in August. The closest calls are at the longer-end, with some potential for the 10Y, 30Y, and (especially) 20Y to see slightly less upsizing than the previous quarter.
- Treasury's marketable borrowing estimates for the Oct-Dec 2023 (Q4) and Jan-Mar 2024 (Q1) quarters came in roughly in line with expectations.
- Looking through sell-side analysts' estimates for Wednesday's coupon announcements, they are largely in line with MNI's in the previous table, with some outliers mainly to the downside in terms of sizes. The most debatable segments are in 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y.
Please see PDF for full analysis:
MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2023_11.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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