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Moderate Rates Outperformance Ahead Of CPI, Potential Wage Deal

CANADA
  • Canadian fixed income is holding moderate outperformance to the US today, more notably at the front end having faded the post-Empire mfg cheapening.
  • In rates space, BAX futures continue to unwind inversion, with the BAM3/Z3 at -0.275 (+0.03) for the highest since Mar 10 (Jun’23 yields +2.5bps, Dec’23 +5.5bp) whilst BAZ3/M4 of -0.64 also nudges to highs since Mar 31.
  • 2Y GoCs meanwhile +5.5bps vs 9bps for Treasuries, coming ahead of tomorrow’s CPI and with additional focus on PSAC-government talks. The latter see prospect of a historically large 155k workers going on strike if a pay deal isn’t reached by 9pm ET.
  • The union is looking for a 13.5% raise over three years for Treasury Board employees and 20.5% over three years plus an immediate 9% adjustment for tax workers.
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