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Modest 5Y Auction Trade Through Allows Tsys To Take Further Step In Day's EGB-Led Rally

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are close to or pushing fresh highs late in the session, now 5.5-8bps richer.
  • The day’s rally followed in EGB footsteps after German fiscal matters concerning no net new debt issuance this year and Lagarde looking at PEPP reinvestments in the not-too-distant future (and indeed Bund yields closed -9.5bps, 10Y BTPs -11bps). This was aided by softer than expected lower tier data in new home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity offsetting a paring of WTI losses.
  • The largest tail for a 2Y auction at 1130ET briefly stalled this even if the cheapening impulse was quickly unwound, before a modest 0.5bp trade through for the 5Y auction at 1300ET allowed the rally to take another step (the auction being better than October’s weakest of the year but certainly not stellar with bid-to-cover and dealer take-up both suggesting a weaker auction than the five-auction average).
  • TYZ3 has pushed to a new session high of 109-00+ as it plays to the bullish trend structure for a step back closer to resistance at the bull trigger of 109-08+ (Nov 17/22 high).
  • Fed Funds pricing meanwhile sees little change over nearer-term meetings, with a first cut seen coming in June (27bp cumulative from current levels) but cuts to end-2024 have built some more from levels earlier in the session to a cumulative 88bps.
  • Tomorrow sees house prices and the Conference Board consumer survey in focus for data, as well as a heavy Fedspeak schedule including text from Governor Waller (voter) on the economic outlook. Additional note issuance no doubt is watched closely as well, with $39B of 7-year paper.
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