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Modest Belly-Led Rally Chips Away At Real Yield Driven Sell-Off

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a modest belly-led rally having pulled back off fresh lows with the Asia open which in yield space included the 10Y yield touching a fresh high since 2007 with 4.3618%. Wider macro headline flow has been limited on the day, with the move a partial retracement of yesterday’s sizeable, real yield driven cheapening which saw 10Y real yields breach 2% for highs since 2009.
  • The docket starts to pick up again today with housing data and business surveys as well as likely two-sided Fedspeak later on.
  • 2YY -1.7bp at 4.984%, 5YY -3.6bp at 4.430%, 10YY -3.4bp at 4.304% and 30YY -2.8bp at 4.418%.
  • TYU3 trades 5 ticks higher at 109-07+ having just dipped off a session high of 109-09. A new low of 108-28 shortly after the Asia open came close to a major support at 108-26+ (Oct 21, 2022 low cont) after which lies 108-12 (1.00 proj of Jul 18 – Aug 4 – Aug 10 price swing). Volumes are close to recent elevated levels at 275k.
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg Aug (0830ET), Existing home sales Jul (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Aug (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (0730ET), Goolsbee opening remarks (1430ET), Goolsbee & Bowman fireside chat (1530ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 42D bill CMB auction (1130ET)
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