May 15, 2024 13:01 GMT
Modest Dovish Data Reaction For Fed Pricing
STIR
A contained dovish reaction in FOMC-dated OIS as CPI data prints in line to a touch softer than expected and the retail sales control group comes in on the soft side, coupled with a negative revision.
- FOMC-dated OIS moves to show ~49bp of cuts through year end vs. ~46.5bp heading into the data. Post-data extremes of ~51bp were seen.
- Sep FOMC pricing never fully discounted a 25bp cut, last showing ~23.5bp of easing vs. ~22.5bp into the data.
- Pricing is nowhere near fully retracing the hawkish move seen in the wake of the March CPI data. As a reminder, ~67bp of ’24 cuts were priced ahead of that data release.
110 words