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STIR: Modest Dovish Fed Repricing On PCE, Just Under 45bp Of '25 Cuts Priced

STIR
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Modest dovish Fed repricing in the wake of the softer-than-expected PCE data.

  • 3bp of cuts priced for January, 14.5bp through March, 28.5bp through June and 44bp through December ’25.
  • That compares to 3bp, 13.5bp, 26bp and 40.5bp ahead of the data.
  • Little new in subsequent comments from NY Fed President Williams, who reiterated that interest rates are currently in restrictive territory, while suggesting the neutral rate has probably risen a little. He stressed that he believes that the Fed is in “a great place” and remains data-dependent, with a baseline view of moving towards neutral rates.
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Modest dovish Fed repricing in the wake of the softer-than-expected PCE data.

  • 3bp of cuts priced for January, 14.5bp through March, 28.5bp through June and 44bp through December ’25.
  • That compares to 3bp, 13.5bp, 26bp and 40.5bp ahead of the data.
  • Little new in subsequent comments from NY Fed President Williams, who reiterated that interest rates are currently in restrictive territory, while suggesting the neutral rate has probably risen a little. He stressed that he believes that the Fed is in “a great place” and remains data-dependent, with a baseline view of moving towards neutral rates.