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Modest Extension Of Post-Powell Decline In Fed Rate Path

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have modestly extended yesterday’s Powell-driven decline, with the Dec’24 rate 1.5bps lower on the day for 7bps lower since the decision.
  • Powell reinforced a clearer "higher for longer" message but the "well positioned" assessment doesn't make it sound like a hike is yet on the FOMC's mind (and Powell noted that "I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike"), disappointing some of the more hawkish positions.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 2.5bp Jun, 7.5bp Jul, 17bp Sep, 24bp Nov, 35bp Dec.
  • The FOMC remains in media blackout, ending tonight. First up on the schedule is Williams (voter) and Goolsbee (’25) in a panel on Friday late on at 1945ET.

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