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Modest Flattening In GoCs

CANADA
  • GoCs reverse the cheaper open, leaving them with only a small twist flattening with 2YY +0.2bps and 10YY -1.4bps, broadly supported by RBC’s forecast for only a moderate recession in 2023.
  • After large swings this week tied to US recession fears, front end yields are back within last week’s range, but long end yields remain more depressed with growth expectations softer on net.
  • It’s driven a further flattening with 2s5s inverted for the first time since Mar’20 (-7bps) and 2s10s hovering just about positive (+5bps), contrary to US 2s10s of -6bps.
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