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Modest Hawkish Moves In Fed pricing Following Data

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The data generated a modest hawkish reaction in Fed pricing, with the lack of meaningful deterioration in the weekly jobless claims and firmer-than-expected GDP prints noted.

  • ~33bp of cuts are priced for Sep vs. ~34bp pre-data i.e. 1/3 odds of a 50bp cut are priced.
  • ~100bp of cuts are priced through the 3 remaining FOMC decisions of ’24 vs. ~103bp pre-data.
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The data generated a modest hawkish reaction in Fed pricing, with the lack of meaningful deterioration in the weekly jobless claims and firmer-than-expected GDP prints noted.

  • ~33bp of cuts are priced for Sep vs. ~34bp pre-data i.e. 1/3 odds of a 50bp cut are priced.
  • ~100bp of cuts are priced through the 3 remaining FOMC decisions of ’24 vs. ~103bp pre-data.