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OIL: Modest Iranian Supply Drop from Tighter Sanctions: Goldman

OIL
Energy BulletsIranBulletMiddle EastCommodities

Iranian crude oil supply is predicted to see a modest decrease of 0.3mb/d to 3.25mb/d by Q2 2025 due to the expected tighter sanctions from the incoming U.S. President Donald Trump administration, according to Goldman Sachs.

  • The drop in supplies is expected to support Brent to a peak at $78/bbl in June.
  • The decline is expected to be modest because about 90% of Iran’s 1.3mb/d exports to China go to independent refiners which are less exposed to US sanctions.
  • Ship-to-ship operations now account for 70% of exports as sanctioned vessels keep operating in some form and new vessels join the shadow fleet.
  • Iranian crude oil in floating storage has risen to the highest in 12 months to 20mbbls.
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Iranian crude oil supply is predicted to see a modest decrease of 0.3mb/d to 3.25mb/d by Q2 2025 due to the expected tighter sanctions from the incoming U.S. President Donald Trump administration, according to Goldman Sachs.

  • The drop in supplies is expected to support Brent to a peak at $78/bbl in June.
  • The decline is expected to be modest because about 90% of Iran’s 1.3mb/d exports to China go to independent refiners which are less exposed to US sanctions.
  • Ship-to-ship operations now account for 70% of exports as sanctioned vessels keep operating in some form and new vessels join the shadow fleet.
  • Iranian crude oil in floating storage has risen to the highest in 12 months to 20mbbls.