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Modest Paring Of Friday’s Lift For Fed Implied Rates

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  • Fed Funds implied rates have pared a small part of Friday’s increase on first spillover from Canadian jobs and then higher than expected U.Mich consumer inflation expectations.
  • The rate path sits at a slightly higher level than shortly before Thursday's surprise push higher in initial jobless claims.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 2.5bp Jun, 7.5bp Jul, 20bp Sep, 29bp Nov and 43bp Dec.
  • Today’s sole scheduled Fedspeak comes from Mester (’24 retiring next month) and VC Jefferson (voter) on central bank communications at 0900ET, with Jefferson providing prepared remarks.
  • Jefferson said Apr 16 that he expects inflation to decline with rates held steady and will hold rates high for longer if inflation persists. The Fed’s job of restoring 2% inflation is not yet done and the labor market is to stay strong whilst it keeps rebalancing.

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  • Fed Funds implied rates have pared a small part of Friday’s increase on first spillover from Canadian jobs and then higher than expected U.Mich consumer inflation expectations.
  • The rate path sits at a slightly higher level than shortly before Thursday's surprise push higher in initial jobless claims.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 2.5bp Jun, 7.5bp Jul, 20bp Sep, 29bp Nov and 43bp Dec.
  • Today’s sole scheduled Fedspeak comes from Mester (’24 retiring next month) and VC Jefferson (voter) on central bank communications at 0900ET, with Jefferson providing prepared remarks.
  • Jefferson said Apr 16 that he expects inflation to decline with rates held steady and will hold rates high for longer if inflation persists. The Fed’s job of restoring 2% inflation is not yet done and the labor market is to stay strong whilst it keeps rebalancing.