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Modest Paring Of Risk-Off Gains, Payrolls In The Spotlight

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields sit 1-2bps higher on the day having pared some of yesterday’s late rally on geopolitical risk concerns.
  • 2s10s at -32.5bps (+1bp) remains within recent ranges.
  • TYM4 at 109-30+ (- 05+) has pulled back from yesterday’s geopol risk inspired high of 110-06, with further strong volumes at a cumulative 385k.
  • It moved closer to resistance at 110-14 (20-day EMA) but the trend direction remains lower, with support seen at 109-09+ (Apr 3 low) before the round 109-00.
  • Focus is firmly on today’s payrolls report – see the full MNI Preview here – before another solid schedule of Fedspeak from the more hawkish leaning members of the FOMC. Elsewhere, Israeli-Iran tension will be eyed after yesterday's headline flow.
  • Sensitivity to a relatively small miss in the weekly initial jobless claims data, coupled with outright yield/FOMC-dated OIS levels and recent Fedspeak, suggests that the market is likely to see a more meaningful reaction to a soft release than it would in the case of a firm report.
  • Data: Payrolls Mar (0830ET), Consumer credit Feb (1500ET)
  • Fedspeak: Collins (0830ET), Barkin (0915ET), Logan (1100ET), Bowman (1230ET) – see STIR.
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