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Modest Rally Doesn’t Change Higher For Longer Drive

CANADA
  • BAX futures have for the most part seen a narrow range for the session, only materially breaking out of it with stronger than expected US PPI inflation along with other more mixed data before completely retracing the move.
  • It leaves implied yields 2-3.5bps lower through 2023 and in 1H24, minimal compared to the substantial push higher in late 2023/1H24 yields of the past few weeks (Dec’23 65bps higher and Jun’24 92bps higher than after the BoC’s Jan 25 decision).
  • Near-term rate expectations remain little changed, with OIS showing only a ~5bp hike priced for the Mar 8 decision.
  • BoC Dep Gov Beaudry still to come late at 1755ET. Tomorrow sees input price pressures for Jan before CPI on Tue.

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