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Modest Risk-On Ahead Heavy Data Calendar Thursday

US TSYS
  • Tsys look to finish higher Wednesday, off second half highs amid modestly improved risk appetite. Tsys climbed off to new cycle low overnight Mar'24 10Y 109-16.5 low, yield tapped 4.3301% high, levels not seen since early Dec'23) following UK CPI miss (tempered by EU IP strength notably in Ireland).
  • Support dipped briefly after the BLS down revised PPI data for Dec from -0.1% to -0.2%. Minimal revisions for PPI final demand in latest months, December revised down from just -0.13% to -0.16% M/M with the rounded change heavily flatter by rounding. Recent weakness slightly more pronounced for various core measures: ex food & energy trimmed 5bps in Dec, ex food, energy & trade services trimmed 7bps.
  • Futures inched higher over the next four hours with 10s tapping 110-05 high before settling in at 110-00.5 after the bell. Yield curves recovered slightly from Tuesday's bear flattening, 2s10s currently +3.100 at -31.459, 10Y yield -.0511 at 4.2632%.
  • Looking ahead: heavy data calendar Thursday with weekly Claims, Retail Sales, Imp/Exp$, IP/Cap-U, TIC Flows. Thursday Fed speak includes Fed Gov Waller on US$ international role at 1315ET, Atlanta Fed Bostic on mon-pol (text, Q&A) later in the evening at 1900ET.
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